UFC Baku Main Card Best Bets: Dogs & Favorites That Will Cash This Weekend
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David Manyun
- June 19, 2025
Top UFC Pick: Rafael Fiziev ML (+112) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship moves the octagon to Azerbaijan for the first time this weekend, and what an absolute banger of a fight card we have lined up!
Rafael Fiziev, Ignacio Bahamondes, Nazim Sadykhov, and Nikolas Motta are involved in two main card matchups, and I’m seeing some legitimate betting value up for grabs at top sportsbooks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Baku main card analysis, betting odds, and predictions. And if you’re looking for more value picks, check out our YouTube channel for daily betting advice.
UFC Baku Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 21, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT
- Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (UFC Light Heavyweight Bout)
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC Lightweight Main Card Bout
Rafael Fiziev
On paper, you might look at Rafael Fiziev and turn your nose up at the 12-4 pro-MMA record he currently holds. However, don’t be so quick to judge because 10 of his professional career bouts were spent competing in the UFC, and for the last half of six years, he’s shared the octagon with some of the best lightweights in the world, including former champions and title contenders.
The former Muay Thai fighter with a 39-8 record in said discipline has transitioned to MMA beautifully, and although he’s currently riding a three-fight losing streak, his talents are much more than the numbers on paper as he prepares to compete in the octagon for the first time in his native country of Azerbaijan this weekend.
- Fiziev Pro MMA Record: 12-4
- Fiziev KOs: 8
- Fiziev Submissions: 1
Ignacio Bahamondes
The time for Ignacio Bahamondes to prove he’s capable of competing with the best 155-pounders on the planet has arrived. A 6-2 UFC record, including three straight wins by knockout or submission, has positioned the Chilian in a beautiful spot to make a statement this weekend. As the man who arguably sent the dangerous Jailin Turner into an early retirement, he’s undeniably a young talent to keep our eye on.
- Bahamondes Pro MMA Record: 17-5
- Bahamondes KOs: 11
- Bahamondes Submissions: 2
Fiziev vs. Bahamondes: Fight Tape Analysis
At 6’3” tall, with a four-inch reach advantage in this specific bout, the game plan for Bahamondes seems obvious: keep Fiziev at range, utilize some blistering leg kicks, and keep the opponent on the end of your jab to sail to victory. This, however, is a lot easier said than done, especially now that he’s fighting at the highest level of the sport.
It’s no secret that both men love to strike, but how will Fiziev handle the aforementioned reach? Well, Ludovit Klein laid the blueprint, and it’s pretty common with larger fighters, and that’s to get on the inside. The problem for Bahamondes is that he doesn’t mind a bit of phone booth fighting, and his willingness to circle away and find his range once these exchanges take place has been non-existent at times.
Another factor will be the takedowns of Fiziev. Yes, although he’s predominantly a striking savant, we watched him take Justin Gaethje to the ground, and with the Chilian only showing us defensive jiu-jitsu in this realm, it wouldn’t be surprising to see ‘Ataman’ mix things up here.
UFC Baku Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing places Bahamondes as the betting favorite, and I understand that the polar opposite win streaks are the reasoning behind it. That said, I don’t believe the more experienced and proven top-ranked fighter in Fiziev should be counted out just yet, especially on home soil, where a close-knit contest could easily give the judges an easy option when scoring rounds.
As a fighter who thrives through stoppages, Bahamondes will have a tough out versus the ultra durable Fiziev, whose only stoppage loss in six years was due to an injury. The experience and location are also factors, and as the odds don’t align with anything outside of win-loss records, give me the underdog to keep the home crowd hyped!
UFC Pick: Rafael Fiziev ML (+112) [1u returns 1.12u profit] at Bovada
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta
UFC Lightweight Main Card Bout
Nazim Sadykhov
With four UFC appearances to date and three of those fights ending in stoppage wins, Azerbaijan natives have a reason to get excited when their fellow countryman, Nazim Sadykhov, makes the walk this weekend.
Since showing out on Dana White’s Contender Series with a right hook stoppage in 2022, Sadykhov has remained undefeated (3-0-1) and most recently took out a prosperous Ismael Bonfim this past February as a +190 underdog.
- Sadykhov Pro MMA Record: 10-1-1
- Sadykhov KOs: 7
- Sadykhov Submissions: 2
Nikolas Motta
Life under the UFC banner hasn’t been as plain sailing for Brazil’s Nikolas Motta. Mixed results have seen him collect a 3-2 record, including a no-contest. Although his volume striking is a positive note, many critics question whether his durability (four KO losses throughout his career) will cost him again.
- Motta Pro MMA Record: 15-5
- Motta KOs: 10
- Motta Submissions: 0
Sadykhov vs. Motta: Fight Tape Analysis
I’ll get straight to the point here: this one feels like a setup piece for matchmaking in Azerbaijan. While Motta has won two straight, the opposition has been of a low calibre, and more to the point, his striking game will be consistently on edge due to the wrestling upside Sadykhov brings to the cage.
Don’t get me wrong, Motta has displayed some beautiful offensive striking to date, but he’s also been knocked out by a 40-something Jim Miller… We also know he’s training with Bangtao Muay Thai, and I don’t envision how this will help when you have a wrestling-strong opponent coming up.
Sadykhov should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, and as the win condition for Motta will likely be by knockout, and he’s fighting a tough SOB whose never been finished, that can also mitigate said striking, it’s hard not to pick the hometown favorite in this one.
UFC Baku Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing place Sadykhov as the betting favorite, and yes, the moneyline region of -400 and beyond is disgusting. Sadykhov isn’t perfect by any means, and he’s lost many rounds even in his career victories, so we must find some value elsewhere.
With heavy hands, the wrestling edge, and little desire to ever attack submissions, we can boost our price on Sadykhov by taking him to win by knockout or decision. Either Motta will be tentative and defensive in grappling moments, or, as we’ve seen previously, he’ll let loose, and this will allow the favorite to continue his stoppage streak.
UFC Pick: Nazim Sadykhov by KO or Decision (-200) [1 returns 1u profit] at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
