UFC 318 Main Card Best Bets: Underdogs and Favorites To Boost Your Bankroll
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David Manyun
- July 18, 2025
Top UFC Pick: Paulo Costa ML (+190) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to New Orleans with a stacked PPV event that’s headlined by Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight with Max Holloway for the ‘BMF’ title.
We’re naturally excited for the main event. Still, Paulo Costa, Roman Kopylov, Daniel Zellhuber, and Michael Johnson are involved in two main card bangers, and I’ve spotted some serious betting value to take advantage of at top sportsbooks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 318 main card analysis and predictions.
UFC 318 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 (UFC BMF Title Bout)
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Michael Johnson
UFC 318 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Daniel Zellhuber
Mexico’s 26-year-old Daniel Zellhuber might hold a 3-2 UFC record, but this doesn’t represent the talent and probable evolution he’s capable of. At 6’1”, he enters every lightweight contest with a considerable size advantage, and with 10 vicious stoppages from his 15 pro career wins, he’s accustomed to finishing his food as he now looks to return to the win column following a hard-fought split decision loss to Esteban Ribovics earlier this year.
- Zellhuber Pro MMA Record: 15-2
- Zellhuber KOs: 7
- Zellhuber Submissions: 3
Michael Johnson
With 30 octagon appearances and 15 years competing under the UFC banner, Michael Johnson is an ultra-veteran who truly epitomizes ‘been there, done that, and brought the t-shirt’ when it comes to in-cage experience. More impressively, at the ripe age of 39, he’s riding his first two-fight win streak since 2018 heading into Saturday’s UFC 318 main card, but can he keep that trend going versus such a formidable foe?
- Johnson Pro MMA Record: 23-9
- Johnson KOs: 10
- Johnson Submissions: 2
Zellhuber vs. Johnson: Fight Tape Analysis
Credit to Johnson’s recent dubs over Ottman Azaitar and Darrius Flowers, but to be brutally honest, those two are two of the division’s weakest, and his glory days of defeating the likes of Dustin Poirier are long behind him.
Why? Well, it’s quite simple: Time waits for no man, and in the 155lb division where a plethora of young and hungry lightweights are looking to make a name for themselves, Johnson sits as the perfect opponent for a prospect like Zellhuber, who’ll instantly test the durability of the veteran we’ve been worried about for some time.
50% of Johnson’s previous six UFC losses came by knockout or submission, and you’ll notice that each of those opponents was younger and incredibly dangerous in both submission and knockout presented situations. Unfortunately for Johnson, Zellhuber fits the bill, and while age isn’t everything, when you couple in the height and reach advantage on top of the finishing potential, it could be a short night for the long-standing UFC lightweight.
UFC 318 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Zellhuber as a huge betting favorite; in fact, he’s the second largest moneyline price on the card. However, due to some of his recent outings going the distance, everyone has forgotten his finishing potential, thus giving us a much greater price on him to win ITD.
Johnson is fast, accurate, and he hits hard, but those fast-twitch reflexes just aren’t what they once were. I see the size of Zellhuber, then I see how Johnson struggles on his back foot, and I envision a recipe for disaster.
Diego Ferreira’s right hand that sent Johnson packing was due to the pressure, and when the reach of Zellhuber forces him back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome. In addition, Johnson has been accustomed to getting submitted throughout his career, and the long arms of Zellhuber are always live to catch a nasty choke!
UFC Pick: Zellhuber Inside the Distance (-135) [1.35u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
UFC 318 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Paulo Costa
Paulo Costa’s ‘secret juice’ may have faltered him to a 1-4 losing record over the past five years, but too many critics are quick to count him out while neglecting the fact that he’s fought nothing but former champions and title contenders since 2020!
Costa’s early run saw him steamroll the competition with knockout after knockout, but he was propelled up the rankings and came short versus the likes of Adesanya, Whittaker, and Strickland. With his first drop down the rankings in many years, is it possible that ‘Borrachinha’ will remind us what made him an elite contender in the first place?
- Costa Pro MMA Record: 14-4
- Costa KOs: 11
- Costa Submissions: 1
Roman Kopylov
Russia’s Roman Kopylov deserves to get his first big-name fight at 185lbs following six wins from his previous seven appearances. Unlike many of his peers, this combat sambo specialist isn’t about the wrestling; it’s the precision striking, movement, and knockout potential that brought him to the dance.
- Kopylov Pro MMA Record: 14-3-0
- Kopylov KOs: 12
- Kopylov Submissions: 0
Costa vs. Kopylov: Fight Tape Analysis
How can we not like Paulo Costa in this spot? He’s a +190 underdog going against an opponent that’s unproven within the top-10 rankings! I understand they’re on different trajectories, but I also understand that if Kopylov fought the same competition as Costa, the results wouldn’t be any different or potentially even worse.
Costa will want to mind his Ps and Qs regarding Kopylov’s punch and kick speed. You can’t discredit his footwork and striking accuracy, while precision and cumulative damage have been a problem for many. However, Costa is a big boy with credible cardio, and regarding pure power, the Brazilian should have enough to make the favorite hesitant.
Can Kopylov play on the outside for three rounds? Potentially, but the fact that he tends to slow down beyond the fifth, while the bigger fighter, Costa, with more damage potential, doesn’t, I can easily see the underdog delivering a surprise victory in Louisiana.
UFC 318 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The latest UFC odds place Kopylov as the betting favorite, and I don’t agree. Therefore, it’s a dog or a pass situation for me, where fortunately, some of the contrasting skills (mainly cardio) also support Costa being able to pull off the victory.
UFC Pick: Paulo Costa ML (+190) [1 returns 1.9u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
