UFC 312 Punching Parlay: Steele and Santos Set To Deliver
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David Manyun
- February 7, 2025
UFC 312 Punching Parlay
- Kody Steele ML (-220)
- Gabriel Santos ML (-225)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship goes Down Under to Sydney, Australia, for an action-packed evening of octagon violence this weekend. Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland revisit their middleweight title feud in the main event, and, of course, I’m back to assist your UFC parlay betting needs.
Below are two of my favorite moneyline selections from the UFC 312 event at the Qudos Bank Arena. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets from top-rated sportsbooks, I think they present the perfect pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland and Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado bouts!
UFC 312 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 08, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland II (UFC Middleweight Title Bout)
Gabriel Santos vs. Jack Jenkins
UFC 312 Featherweight Bout
Santos: The Story So Far
Brazil’s Gabriel Santos might have a negative 1-2 UFC record, but his talents genuinely don’t match the numbers. First, he made his debut versus a top-ranked featherweight, Lerone Murphy, and forced the Brit to a split decision. Second, the overall talent level he’s fought has been significantly higher than that of most UFC newcomers.
This weekend, Santos will finally catch a break when he faces a similar level of opposition, and with the elite experience he’s already garnered, he’s live to upset the Aussie man in front of his home crowd.
- Santos Pro MMA Record: 11-2-0
- Santos Knockout Wins: 3
- Santos Submission Wins: 4
Jenkins: The Story So Far
Jack Jenkins isn’t an awful fighter, but he’s no world-beater, either. In contrast to his weekend foe, the Australian has picked up a 3-1 UFC record thus far, although none of those fights were against top-tier competition. More worryingly, watching him struggle to defeat Herbert Burns was an eye-opener to his true ceiling, and if anything puts a dampener on his expected career moving forward, this mediocre display versus a terrible fighter would be it.
- Jenkins Pro MMA Record: 13-3-0
- Jenkins Knockout Wins: 6
- Jenkins Submission Wins: 3
UFC 312 Santos vs. Jenkins: Skillset Breakdown
For Santos, he has some violent muay Thai striking, although it can be stiff at times. However, the difference-maker this weekend will be the offensive wrestling and grappling. We’ve watched Jenkins get taken down by all of his UFC opponents to date, and notably, many of those were double-leg takedowns, something that Santos is very good at.
So, in a standing war, Santos leaves himself open to defeat. However, the smart plan, and the most likely one, stems from the takedowns and offensive grappling, and that’s precisely what I believe will happen.
Santos Moneyline Reasoning
I struggle to put faith in Jenkin, who barely beat Jamall Emmers and Herbert Burns. He cannot continue squeaking decisions, and to make Burns look good in moments is a huge cause for concern. Santos presents a few red flags, including cardio and limited striking offense, but I believe he’s the more aggressive of the two, and with a disciplined grappling game plan, he can sail to victory in this one.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Gabriel Santos ML (-225) at BetOnline
Kody Steele vs. Rongzhu
UFC 312 Lightweight Bout
Steele: The Story So Far
American native Kody Steele, aged 30, has spent most of his combat sports career as a grappler. He’s only fought on seven occasions as a pro mixed martial artist, but his grappling experience makes him a huge threat to every opponent that enters the cage.
Funnily enough, what’s most impressive about Steele in MMA is that he’s evolved into a dangerous striker. He isn’t the most technical yet, but his confidence in sleeping opponents continues to grow as we watch this Syndicate MMA product become the full package!
- Steele Pro MMA Record: 7-0-0
- Steele Knockout Wins: 4
- Steele Submission Wins: 1
Rongzhu: The Story So Far
At the tender age of 24, seeing Rongzhu hold a 31-fight pro career record is impressive alone. He’s a true combatant with a fighting spirit, as evidenced by his removal from the UFC roster, which resulted in him battling his way back to getting re-signed through Road to UFC.
Here’s the kicker: Rongzhu returned, and we witnessed the same issues as before. He looked out of place in striking exchanges and was eventually stopped by Chris Padilla, who forced a doctor’s stoppage with strikes.
- Rongzhu Pro MMA Record: 25-6-0
- Rongzhu Knockout Wins: 14
- Rongzhu Submission Wins: 7
UFC 312 Steele vs. Rongzhu: Skillset Breakdown
You only have to scour Kody Steele’s grappling record to know he’s a problem on the mat. More interestingly, he’s fought at welterweight and middleweight, and his UFC debut will see him at lightweight. As a result of this, don’t be surprised when he can effortlessly toss these 155-pounders around, and be equally unsurprised if he can ignore the grappling and knock his opponent’s lights out.
I struggle to see a path to victory for Rongzhu. He certainly won’t have a chance in the grappling realm, and then, with his questionable chin (four knockout losses), Steele, with blistering hooks and haymakers, will be live to flatline the Chinese fighter.
Steele Moneyline Reasoning
Physicality, cardio, grappling, wrestling, and striking power all favor Steele. This leaves minimal advantages for Rongzhu, and honestly, I believe the available UFC odds heavily underrate Steele at -220, who I expected to be close to -300 or -400 in this spot.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Kody Steele ML (-220) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Kody Steele ML (-220)
- Gabriel Santos ML (-225)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+109) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
