UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs. Vettori is a great event before kicking off UFC 267. The entire card is stacked from top to bottom, with matchups between Gregory Rodrigues vs. Park Jun-Yong, Alex Caceres vs. Choi Seung-Woo, (co-main) Grant Dawson vs. Rick Glenn, and many more! Read below for my UFC Prediction in the middleweight main event, Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori.
Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
UFC Light Heavyweight Bout
Saturday, October 23, 2021 – 11:05 PM EDT at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Paulo Costa
Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa is a Brazilian mixed martial artist currently ranked #2 in the UFC Middleweight division.
Costa made his professional MMA debut in February 2021, and compiled a record of 8-0 over the span of five years.
He was then chosen to appear on the Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 against Marcio Alexandre Jr., and lost via split decision. Costa then went on to make his UFC debut in March 2017 against Garreth McLellan and won via TKO in the first round.
All of Paulo Costa’s accomplishments include: Jungle Fight Middleweight Champion (one time), UFC Performance of the Night (two times), UFC Fight of the Night (one time) and UFC 2019 August Fight of the Month vs. Yoel Romero.
Marvin Vettori
Marvin “the Italian Dream” Vettori is an Italian mixed martial artist currently ranked #5 in the UFC Middleweight division, and is a former Venator FC Welterweight Champion.
Prior to signing with the UFC, Vettori compiled a record of 10-2 in the European circuit. He then signed with the UFC in 2016 making his debut against Alberto Emiliano Pereira; he won via submission-guillotine choke in the first round.
All of Marvin Vettori’s accomplishments include: UFC Performance of the Night (one time), UFC Fight of the Night (one time), and VFC Welterweight Champion (one time).
Prediction
The current UFC Odds for this matchup at your Top Sportsbooks are: Paulo Costa +157 and Marvin Vettori -182 via BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review).
The weight class for this main event has changed once again to the UFC Light Heavyweight division (205lbs) because Costa could not make weight.
This will still be a fun main event, though, because whoever wins would’ve put them back into title consideration against Israel Adesanya. But now, we are at light heavyweight.
Marvin Vettori is very well rounded; he has a decent output in strikes averaged 3.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.04. He also mixes in takedowns frequently, averaged 2.24 takdowns every 15 minutes, and has landed 15 over his last two UFC bouts.
Vettori is 2-5 in his last 7 bouts; those two losses were against Israel Adesanya, both by decision. In those 7 bouts, he has wins over Cezar Ferreira, Andrew Sanchez, Karl Roberson, Jack Hermansson, and Kevin Holland - all by unanimous decision, except Karl Roberson (Submission RNC R1).
Paulo Costa is a heavy hitting striker with 12 finishes inside the distance (11 via T/KO, 1 via Submission). Costa has 1 loss to his record against Adesanya via T/KO in the second round. In the UFC, Costa has wins over Garreth McLellan, Oluwale Bamgbose, Johny Hendricks, Uriah Hall, and Yoel Romero.
Costa has a very high output, averaging 7.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.70. However, he has not landed a single takedown in all 6 of his UFC bouts.
Borrachinha has not faced the level of competition Vettori has inside the UFC, but Costa does pose as a threat inside the division because of how powerful his striking is.
Vettori’s path to victory will not be standing, but on the ground. If he stays at range, changes levels when Costa tries to close the distance, and dominates on the ground, then Vettori has a chance of winning.
However, Costa has an 80% takedown defense in the UFC. Vettori is going to struggle trying to bring Costa to the ground, but he may succeed one or two times. Costa likes to mainly counter, and Vettori needs to be aware of his power.
The deeper this fight goes, the more it will favor Vettori. His conditioning is superb, and his level of competition has prepared him for this moment. So, either Vettori wins at the scorecards or Costa wins via T/KO. For me, Vettori has held his chin together this far and has gone the distance twice with the champion, while Costa fell short to Adesanya in the second round. Although the dog-odds on Costa sound brilliant, I like Vettori at the scorecards, even as a light heavyweight.
UFC Pick: Marvin Vettori by Points +190 via BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
