Minnesota and New York meet tonight. Here’s betting advice for the game. The top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s game between Minnesota and New York. New York is coming off a gloomy 10-point home loss to Charlotte in which the Knicks mustered 87 points.
Minnesota certainly has more momentum as it is coming off a huge 20-point win against Golden State, although the Warriors did not have Stephen Curry available. Both teams appear even in view of their respective overall record. But I think one team will dominate tonight. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks
Tuesday, January 18, 2022 – 7:30 PM EST at Madison Square Garden
Three-Pointers and More Three-Pointers
Literally, no team likes to chuck three-pointers more than Minnesota. The Timberwolves average the most three-point attempts per game. They average .9 more three-point attempts per game than the team ranked second-highest in the category.
When they do well on offense, three-pointers will play a big role in that success. When they beat Golden State in their last game, for example, they scored 119 points with 16 threes. Some teams that depend more heavily on threes find themselves at a stronger disadvantage in road games because they have to shoot in a venue that is foreign to them.
But Minnesota is not such a team. From behind the arc, the Timberwolves are actually more efficient in road games than in home games.
Knicks' Perimeter Defense
Given Minnesota's obvious proclivity to attempt three-pointers, it is decisive to assess New York's perimeter defense. The Knicks would match up strongly against the Minnesota offense if they were good at defending threes.
But they're not. Perimeter defense has been an explicit problem for New York throughout the season. Two issues with New York's perimeter defense -- and, indeed, with its defense in general -- are the inconsistency of its help defense and the shortcomings of its defensive rotations.
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These two issues contribute to two important statistics: one, the Knicks rank 24th in limiting three-point attempts. Two, they allow the fifth-highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts.
These two statistics indicate that the Knicks are bad at running teams off the three-point line and that they are bad at contesting opposing three-point attempts. Given these statistics and the on-court issues from which they derive, we should expect the Timberwolves to get what they from behind the arc.
Key Players
Several Minnesota players really want to flourish from behind the arc in order to have a good game. Five different ones attempt at least four threes per game. As a center, Karl-Anthony Towns helps stretch the floor with his 41.1-percent conversion rate from behind the arc.
His floor-spacing ability opens up more opportunities for teammates inside the arc. Guys like Anthony Edwards with his highlight-reel dunks and D'Angelo Russell have more space to attack the rim and, generally, to operate inside thanks to the shooting of men like Towns.
Of course, both Edwards and Russell also love to shoot threes and both guys have been superb in January. Each player is converting over 42-percent of his three-point opportunities this month.
Knicks' Offense
Offensively, New York's biggest thing is the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler. The Knicks execute this play type with the fifth-highest frequency. Several Knicks' ball-handlers will execute this play type.
So the Knicks' offense will revolve heavily around ball-screens no matter who is injured. But it is worth noting that Kemba Walker remains bothered by soreness in his left knee. As a result of this injury, he has been unable to play in a game since logging 20 minutes on December 29th against Detroit.
It is true that Walker had been booted from the rotation. But his injury is important to note because, before it, he had returned to the starting lineup. In terms of his fit in the offense, he is important to New York's ball-screen heavy offense because he averages more than three points per game on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type than any other Knicks player.
Without Walker -- or at least with him limited by this injury -- the Knicks lose their top player for their favorite play type.
Minnesota's Ball-Screen Defense
With or without Walker, New York's offense matches up poorly against the Minnesota defense because of the latter's unique effectiveness against the Knicks' favorite play type. This effectiveness is evident in the following statistic: Minnesota allows the third-fewest points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
This year, the Timberwolves are having the big remain at the level of the screen in order to increase their ball pressure. By having a big pressure on the ball-handler, the screened defender is more easily able to recover to his man, which means that the big end up having an easier task.
In other words, Minnesota's ball-screen defense is so successful because the big and the screened defender are doing more to help each other out. The Timberwolves' ball-screen defense is thus one more reason why you should invest in Minnesota for your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -3 (-115) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
