Thursday College Football: Best Bets for Week 14
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Swinging Johnson
- November 27, 2025
This Thursday is Thanksgiving, and although the pros seize the spotlight, NCAAF fans have an opportunity in the evening to enjoy the Midshipmen of Navy invading the “Home of the Blues,” Memphis, Tennessee, home of the Tigers.
After reviewing the NCAAF odds at all of the best offshore sportsbooks, we found opportunities with the side and a team prop in our Thursday night football bets.
Our college football bets on Thursday night also take into consideration the AI predictions made by BMR’s proprietary algorithm, which shows Memphis winning and covering the number over their visitors from Navy.
Best Bets for Navy vs. Memphis
After doing our due diligence and reviewing tonight’s NCAAF odds, we can see that Navy has been an absolute money-burner at the betting windows, covering in only three of their 10 games this season despite boasting an 8-2 straight-up mark.
Conversely, Memphis has been quite the opposite, as their 8-3 record mirrors that of their 8-3 ATS mark, and that has brought big smiles to their backers this season.
After scouring the injury reports, reviewing historical trends, and shopping for the best odds at the most reputable online sportsbooks, tonight’s NCAAF picks are focused on backing the better team at a line we can tolerate.
Thursday Odds (Memphis -5)
The NCAAF odds on this Turkey Night matchup show that the home team, Memphis, opened up as 6-point favorites, but that line has slipped slightly to -5½ at most books. However, those who are leaning toward betting the Tigers can find a premium price at Bovada, which is hanging Memphis -5 for all the chalk-eaters like me!
Anytime a line drops, even half a point in this case, on the favorite, it always gives me cause for pause, but this could simply be a case of the sharps perceiving value on the underdog, as six can be an important number.
Although the other sportsbooks are offering Memphis -5½ on this Thanksgiving clash, why not give our business to Bovada and take the -5 that they are offering on the home chalk?
Thursday Night Picks (Memphis -5)
BMR’s algorithm model predicts a 34-26 Memphis victory, and that would be fine with me and those who back the Tigers. But hopefully it won’t even be that close, as we just hate to sweat the bet. Nevertheless, a cover is a cover, and there are several reasons why the Tigers are the sharp side of this Turkey Night battle.
Navy had been racking up the wins but failing to cover. Eventually, that manifests in outright losses, as evidenced by the Middies’ road losses to North Texas (31-17 as 6½ point underdogs) and Notre Dame (49-10 as 31-point dogs). However, they got well in their last meeting with South Florida when Navy upset the Bulls, 41-38, as 9½ point home dogs.
As for Memphis, the Tigers had won and covered eight of their first nine games this season, but they dropped a heartbreaking decision to Tulane, 38-32, as three-point home favorites to begin the month, before they tasted the bitter defeat of a 31-27 loss to ECU as three-point road dogs in their last outing.
Why Memphis Is the Right Choice
The recent trend would bode well for Navy, but Memphis is the sneaky right side based on Navy’s one-dimensional rushing attack. The Middies are not a good passing team, ranked 130th in the nation, but they ground-and-pound more often than most and chew up over 308 rushing yards per game.
However, Memphis has an upper-tier rushing attack of its own, ranked 33rd, and can also do something Navy can’t or refuses to do—pass the ball. The Midshipmen are ranked 67th against the pass, and you can bet the Tigers will go to the air early and often to force Navy to try to stand and trade through an aerial battle.
Lastly, the Thanksgiving college football odds at all the major online sportsbooks have installed Memphis as the favorite due to their home-field advantage and the fact that they rank 15th in the nation in points scored (36.2 PPG) versus Navy’s defense that surrenders nearly 28 points per game (93rd).
Expert Pick: Memphis -5 (-110) at Bovada
Thursday Night Game Props (Navy Under 27.5 Points)
Navy will have a tough time trading points with the Tigers, and once they fall behind, they will have no other choice but to go to the air. The Navy sinks in an aerial dogfight, and that will lead to turnovers and better field position for Memphis.
After checking out the NCAAF odds at all of the major offshore shops, this looks like it could be tough sledding for the Navy offense, and the 27½ point team total that Bovada is hanging looks a bit steep against a Tigers’ defense itching for redemption.
Go under in the Navy team total and cash a ticket.
Expert Pick: Navy Under 27.5 Points (-125) at Bovada
Make Your Thursday Night Football Bets Now
Getting in the game with an opinion that makes you cash is what it’s all about. The only way to do that is to open an account at one or more of the most trustworthy, reliable, and reputable sportsbooks in the industry, like the several online sportsbooks featured at Bookmakers Review.
Remember, the lines and odds don’t stay stagnant. They move, so why not review our Thursday night football bets on the Memphis Tigers and under Navy’s team total when the getting is good? Lock in on a line at Bovada for this game, and you’ll never have to worry that you missed out on value.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
