NC State vs. Wake Forest: Thursday Night NCAAF Week 3 Best Bet – Sept. 11
-
Rainman M.
- September 10, 2025
NC State played a thrilling game last week against Virginia. It looked like the Cavaliers were going to score a last-second touchdown to take the lead, but then their quarterback overlooked a wide-open target and threw an interception in the end zone.
NC State’s victory over big underdog East Carolina in Week 1 can likewise be characterized as an escape. With our best NCAAF bets for Thursday in mind, let’s recognize that every team’s luck has to run out some time.
NC State Wolfpack vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7)
The Underdog Has Value
The favored team has no business being favored, especially by this many points on the road. NC State is 2-0 by the thinnest of margins, with both of its road underdog opponents being very close to scoring a tying or lead-taking touchdown at the end of the game.
These odds reflect the extent to which oddsmakers were down on Wake Forest before the season. But the Demon Deacons brought in significant brainpower, including a new head coach, to bolster their coaching staff, an offense that features a great running back and that will be ignited by improvement at the quarterback position, All-ACC selections at linebacker and safety, and a strengthened pass rush with Gabe Kirschke arriving after his 6.5 sacks last year.
This improved Wake Forest team will be more competitive in the ACC than oddsmakers believe. NC State’s shakiness thus far further suggests that it is being overrated.
Why Wake Forest Has the Juice to Upset NC State
When Virginia scored 31 points against NC State last week, it exploited a major weakness in the Wolfpack: run defense. Virginia, a team that had lost two would-be starters from its offensive line in the offseason, amassed 257 rushing yards on eight YPC.
Wake Forest’s rush attack can do more damage with its All-American running back Demond Claiborne. So far this season, Claiborne has 212 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 13 carries.
NC State backers will insist that the Wolfpack can simply crowd the line of scrimmage, but Robby Ashford has become a more accurate passer. Ashford can at least replicate the ability of Virginia’s mediocre quarterback to exploit any extra attention that NC State devotes to stopping the run.
With playmakers throughout its linebacker corps and secondary, plus a pass rush that has massively improved its sack rate relative to last year, Wake Forest will upset the Wolfpack.
Expert Pick: Wake Forest +7 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Sign up at Top Sportsbooks
NC State routinely fails to win games by more than seven points — if NC State wins at all — so this spread just doesn’t make sense to me, especially in view of what Wake Forest has to offer on both sides of the ball.
Take advantage of this underdog betting opportunity as well as other top NCAAF bets by registering at reputable sportsbooks. Sign up at multiple respectable sportsbooks in order to get the best number for every game that you bet on.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
