Two SEC contenders try to get back on a winning track on Tuesday night in Knoxville when Texas A&M travels to face Tennessee.
A one-point loss to Texas in the SEC-Big 12 challenge snapped a three-game winning streak for Tennessee and dropped the Vols to No. 22 in the poll at 14-6. Tennessee is also tied for third in the SEC at 5-3.
After opening SEC play 4-0, Texas A&M has lost four straight, and a NCAA Tournament bid is heading from a sure thing to the bubble.
A road win at Tennessee would be an impressive addition to the resume of the Aggies, who have lost all four games they’ve played against Quadrant I opponents this season. A&M is 15-6, 4-4 in the conference and tied with LSU, Alabama and South Carolina for sixth place.
So let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this game.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Tuesday, February 01, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Thompson-Boling Arena
Stopping the Free Fall
Texas A&M went 11-2 in non-conference play and opened the SEC season at 4-0 with a home win over Arkansas, now tied for third in the league. Things turned south quickly, however, as the Aggies have lost four straight.
The first three were encouraging losses. A&M lost by six against Kentucky, in overtime on the road at Arkansas and by six to LSU, all contenders in the league with a combined 49-14 record. So, while the Aggies couldn’t break through against a Quad I team, they were at least hanging in until the end and dropping close decisions.
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Then came South Carolina. Playing at home, the Aggies lost to the then 12-7 Gamecocks by 11 points.
The biggest problem for A&M has been the perimeter game. The Aggies were a solid three-point shooting team until recently. A&M shot 5-of-25 in the loss to South Carolina and have hit 27 of 116, .233, over the last five games. They had also been strong at shutting down outside shooters on defense, but in the last two games, opponents have hit 15 of 32 from three.
The Aggies will want to slow things down and grind out a win with a defense that ranks No. 11 in the country in turnover rate and is among the nation’s leaders in blocked shot rate and shooting defense.
Looking to Put Together a Run
Tennessee has been inconsistent this season. The Vols went 9-2 in non-conference, then opened SEC play by losing three of their first five conference games. Tennessee then put together a three-game win streak including victories over LSU and Florida before Saturday’s loss to Texas.
The Vols are unbeaten at home, 3-6 on the road or at neutral sites, and all six losses have come against Quadrant I teams —Villanova, Texas Tech (in overtime), Alabama (by five), LSU, Kentucky and Texas (by one). The Vols also have three Quad I wins on the season.
Coach Rick Barnes thinks the Volunteers have been too tentative, passing up shots they should be taking.
"I actually said at the end of the (Texas) game the next guy that turns down a shot is coming out of the game," Barnes said. "Whether he makes it or not, you better take it."
Barnes singled out guard Santiago Vescovi, who went 1-for-8 against the Longhorns after taking 10 or more shots in 14 of the first 19 games. Look for Justin Powell, who was held without a shot against Texas, to be more aggressive as well.
The Pick
Texas A&M’s loss to South Carolina was the outlier in a season that otherwise has seen the Aggies competitive against top teams. Look for the Aggies’ shots to begin falling again and for the A&M defense to frustrate Tennessee.
Being more aggressive—Coach Barnes’ plea to his team after the last loss—could play right into the hands of a ball hawking A&M defense. The Aggies may not pull off the win, but 11 points seems too steep a spread to cover for in the NCAAB picks, particularly since the pace of this game will likely be slow.
NCAAB Pick: Texas A&M +11 (-110) at BetOnline (visit BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
