Potential seeding for the SEC Tournament is on the line Wednesday when Texas A&M visits No. 25 Alabama in the Tide’s home finale. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Coleman Coliseum
It’s the home finale for No. 25 Alabama on Wednesday night as the Crimson Tide host Texas A&M in the schools’ only scheduled meeting of the season. Potential seeding for the SEC Tournament is also on the line. The SEC Network has the telecast.
The Tide lead the all-time series 12-9, but the Aggies have won three straight and four of the past five. The last time Alabama defeated Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa came on December 30th, 2017. In an oddity, last year’s game was canceled due to an ice storm in Texas and then not made up for pandemic reasons. The Tide surely would have won as they were much better a season ago on the way to the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16.
Aggies Yet to Beat Ranked Team
Texas A&M (18-11, 7-9 SEC) hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since the 2017-18 season and isn’t going this year, either, barring a shocking run to the SEC Tournament title, and there’s no way that’s happening. The college basketball odds for that event will be out following this weekend’s regular-season finales. I would expect A&M to get an NIT invitation, though.
Coach Buzz Williams’ team is 0-4 vs. ranked schools this season but does have solid wins over Notre Dame, Arkansas (Hogs were ranked then), and Florida. The Aggies enter on a two-game winning streak, beating a terrible Georgia team and then a minor 76-66 upset at Ole Miss on Saturday – only A&M’s fourth true road win.
Texas A&M shot an absurd 67.9 percent from the floor in the first half (19-of-28), which was the highest field goal percentage by the team in the Williams era and highest since shooting 70 percent in the second half against Auburn on February, 18th, 2017.
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I’m confident saying the Aggies won’t be shooting 67.9 percent again in this one. They used the starting lineup of Henry Coleman III, Quenton Jackson, Manny Obaseki, Tyrece Radford, and Wade Taylor IV for the second time this season and improved to 2-0.
A&M started the SEC slate 4-0 but hasn’t won three straight since. Jackson might win SEC Sixth Man of the Year as he leads the team in scoring at 14.0 ppg – obviously, he mostly has come off the bench other than the past two games. He has scored in double figures in 11 consecutive games. Jackson is the only player on the team who took the extra year of eligibility given out by the NCAA due to the COVID-19 pandemic from last season. Coleman III ranks second at 10.4 points and leads the team in rebounding at 6.1 per game.
Texas A&M is 5-1 on the NCAAB picks in its past six Wednesday games.
Tide Can’t Move Up in SEC
In a way, the Tide (19-10, 9-7 SEC) don’t have a ton to play for other than it being the home finale – they held Senior Night already – because they can’t get into the top four of the SEC standings and earn the double-bye. The Tide, currently the No. 5 seed, will play in the second round of the SEC Tournament next Thursday in Tampa, Florida. Bama won the 2021 SEC Tournament.
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Coach Nate Oats’ team is going to be in the NCAA Tournament regardless. ESPN has Bama as a No. 5 seed in the South and CBS Sports as a No. 4 in the West. To make the Final Four, the Tide are +800 on the NCAAB futures odds. Can’t really see that happening. Maybe Sweet 16 like last year. Alabama is the only team in the nation to have defeated four teams among the NET Top 10 (No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 3 Houston, No. 5 Baylor, and No. 8 Tennessee).
The barometer for this team is junior guard Jahvon Quinerly, the second-leading scorer at 14.3 ppg. Alabama is 14-6 this season when Quinerly scores in double figures and 5-4 when he does not. Quinerly has scored 19 or more points in three of his last four games. In Saturday’s rout of South Carolina, he had 20 points on a 7-for-9 shooting.
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Alabama is a very good offensive team, ranking No. 9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.9 points per 100 possessions and they play fast (15th in tempo). The Tide rank No. 2 in the SEC and No. 10 in the nation in scoring offense at 80.5 points per game. UA also leads the league in threes attempted (865), threes made (270), and threes made per game (9.3). The defense can be lacking at times. Bama ranks 82nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.8).
The Tide have proven they can beat some of the country’s best teams but also have some puzzling losses. I believe they win this game, but simulations have them prevailing by about eight. Texas A&M is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Alabama is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 at home.
NCAAB Pick: Texas A&M +9.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
