There are upsets every single week in college football, and that is where bettors tend to find the most value. While huge moneyline upsets are not as frequent, the payouts can be massive with just how far the spread is.
For example in Week 1, Notre Dame was a huge favorite against Florida State, but the game went to overtime and had a chance for a massive payout for FSU moneyline bettors. Looking ahead to Week 4, there are quite a few massive underdogs that would be seismic upsets should they win.
Here is a look at our best-upset picks for Week 4 in college football at BMR’s top sportsbooks. While these are not likely to hit, there is some value to consider given the prices.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, September 25, 2021 – 03:30 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium
There’s an embarrassment of talent on the Aggies’ offense. Rushers Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane are future NFL studs, and they’re just the tip of the iceberg. Receivers Ainias Smith and Jalen Wydermyer further threaten defenses.
And yet, the Aggies’ offense has left a lot of room for improvement. The offensive line has been solid, but the quarterback play has struggled with two youngsters. I have serious questions as to whether Zach Calzada is good enough to win these big games with.
Everything on the Arkansas offense revolves around quarterback K.J. Jefferson. The Razorbacks are an excellent rushing team with every carrier with six or more carries on the year averaging over 5.1 yards per touch. The trio of Trelon Smith, Raheim Sanders, and Jefferson has been particularly devastating.
The powerful offensive line will have their hands full with DeMarvin Leal and the Aggies’ front seven. This defensive unit has a ton of size and speed to combat Arkansas. But so did Texas, and we saw the Longhorns be destroyed.
NCAAF Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field
Quarterback Jack Coan has been surprisingly efficient for the Irish offense. He struggled to complete anything beyond 10 yards at Wisconsin, but has thus far been a steady playmaker for Notre Dame. Without him, they’d be 1-2 at best.
Coan suffered a dislocated finger against Toledo and led a comeback win against an unsuspecting foe. Coan and receivers Michael Mayer and Kevin Austin have carried this offense on their backs so far; they account for the vast majority of the unit’s production. This must change for the Irish to win bigger this year.
The easiest way to break down the Wisconsin offense is they must get more out of Graham Mertz in order to become a 10-win team in 2021. Everything that we normally love about a Wisconsin offense is in place; the running game is strong, the blockers are savvy, and there’s enough defensive playmaking to beat better teams.
But Mertz has been a major disappointment ever since his first two career starts that netted seven touchdowns. Since November 14, 2020, Mertz has accumulated just two touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s been more of a problem than an answer.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame (+200) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Friday, September 24, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Scott Stadium
The Demon Deacons have one of the best one-two punches in the nation with quarterback Sam Hartman and rusher Christian Beal. Their combined efficiency makes most other teams jealous. Hartman has completed almost 69% of his passes, and Beal is almost at six yards per-carry.
They accomplish this through a truly balanced attack. The offensive line is solid and allows few negative plays. The unit bodes their time until a big opportunity to reveal itself.
Almost exclusively a passing unit now, this is the Brennan Armstrong show. He’s a must-see star as he’s put up 1,298 yards on a 72% completion rate. Their spread offense has a plethora of tremendous receivers who maximize the output Armstrong controls.
Wake Forest must sell out to slow the big-play offense. Virginia gave up trying to run as the lanes rarely exist. For a unit that has excelled all-around, Wake must now answer this big step up in competition.
NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest +4 (-110) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
