Let’s plow ahead into the next week of NFL football, armed with our fingers to punch the right keys trying to hunt down more favorites to take down. We are 6-3 thus far with five outright upsets. We head to October, where the nights start getting quite a bit cooler, the leaves on the trees are changing colors and the NFL odds get sharper for football.
For many, the first two are welcome, with the last one not so great for those of us making NFL picks. Nevertheless, our marching orders are clear, our methods tried and tested and our beliefs unwavering. Let’s call out the hounds (underdogs)!
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 3, 2021 – 1:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field
The Detroit Lions are far from a talented team, yet, we give credit to new head coach Dan Campbell for getting an immediate buy-in from his players and they are playing all four quarters. The Lions were down big to San Francisco and came back, played Baltimore very tough, and had an excellent first half at Green Bay. Let’s be honest, Detroit should have beaten the Ravens and only a historic field goal kick by possibly the greatest kicker of all time is what beat them.
The Chicago Bears had 47 total yards against Cleveland last Sunday. For the measly 36 plays they ran, that is 1.3 yards a play. You can blame the offensive line which is brutal and rookie quarterback Justin Fields, but how about the play-calling?
Detroit might be 0-3, but they don’t quit, keep fighting and they enter this divisional battle with the better QB in Jared Goff. Taking the points.
NFL Pick: Lions +3 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 3, 2021 - 4:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
A pair of unbeaten teams collide from the NFC West and one will take over first place by themselves by late Sunday afternoon. As we predicted, we thought the Rams would be back after last year’s Super Bowl hangover. Mathew Stafford has energized the offense and the defense is more cohesive as a unit.
Arizona might have been fortunate to take down Minnesota and they only played hard for 30 minutes at Jacksonville, still, the Cardinals crushing Tennessee in Nashville holds more water with how the Titans have won their past two contests.
Arizona has lost eight in a row to L.A. (0-8 ATS) and only one was close enough to fall into single digits. (31-24, 12/29/19) Though a strong case is made for the Rams to have the Cards’ number, the Redbirds have more experience and leadership in this year’s locker room.
The key is running the ball, that is what has kept Arizona from competing and they have shown an inclination not to give up it so easily. With the Cardinals 34-17 ATS playing against a foe with a 75% or higher win percentage, like the digits.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +6 (-108) with Heritage Sports
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 3, 2021 - 4:25 PM EDT at Empower Field at Mile High
For you old school rockers of Aerosmith (or those that heard their parents playing their records and CDs), Baltimore reminds us of one of their songs, “Livin’ on the Edge”. The Ravens lost in OT in Vegas, hung on to beat K.C., and needed every inch of Justin Tucker’s kick in the Motor City to knock out Detroit.
Not that Denver is a top-shelf outfit at 3-0 SU and ATS, beating the lousy competition, but you can only play who’s on your schedule. The Broncos slate gets tougher and they will play four times in 19 days to start October. Denver’s defense is dominant in permitting 26 total points and the offense under Teddy Bridgewater is efficient running and passing.
As we wrote this article, the Broncos were a one-point home favorite and depending on a football bettor’s taste, that could flip. We believe Baltimore is mentally tougher and better coached and cannot overlook they are 10-2 ATS on the road when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and 30-14 away versus clubs with a win percentage of 75% or better.
NFL Pick: Ravens +1 (-108) with Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
