It’s hard to believe it’s actually here! Don’t you feel like a kid at Christmas? I would like to thank my editors at BMR for hosting Swinger’s Picks again this year. Hopefully, we can build upon the 10+ units we won last season with my top three NFL football best bets each week, which are assigned a unit value ranging from 1 unit to a maximum of 5 units.
Without further ado, let’s get this party started!
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Sunday Afternoon NFL Football Odds
The NFL odds on the Steelers vs. Jets game have come down just a tad, with Pittsburgh opening as 3-point favorites, which is pretty much what you’ll find across the board at all of the major offshore sportsbooks. However, if you have accounts at several shops, then you’ll be happy to know you can get the Steelers at -2½ over at BetOnline if you’re so inclined.
As for our other two NFL best bets in Week 1, we find that the Commanders opened as 7-point home chalk, but the money is on the underdog, with the line falling to Washington -6. Lastly, the Cardinals are receiving a ton of money, having opened at -4½ and soaring as high as -6½ as of this Thursday writing.
Sunday Afternoon NFL Football Picks
Thank you for your continued support, tweets (@SwingeratBMR), and even emails asking when this first edition of Swinger’s Picks will be published. This week, we’ve got three Sunday afternoon games here at Swinger’s NFL picks, but below you will see a host of my future props that will give us a season’s worth of action as we navigate the tumultuous waters of NFL betting.
Steelers -2½ at BetOnline
I think we’d all agree that Mike Tomlin is a pretty good coach. In fact, he’s the longest-tenured coach in the league, entering his 19th season as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and has never had a losing season while racking up a Super Bowl title in 2009.
I bring this up because Tomlin knows Jets quarterback Justin Fields pretty well after he coached him last season as a member of the Steelers. That’s valuable information Tomlin will have on the young journeyman who began his career as the highly touted 11th overall pick of the Bears in 2021. Do you think Tomlin will have a few defensive schemes tailored to Fields’ many weaknesses? Me too.
That alone should warrant a bet on the Steelers, but Aaron Rodgers, now the quarterback of the Steelers, will want a little payback from his former team. Lastly, teams with new head coaches and new quarterbacks, like the Jets, were 1-3 against the number last season.
Let’s lay it and like it on the visitors.
Expert Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2½ (-115) for 3 units at BetOnline
Giants +6 at Heritage Sports
The Giants have gotten a bum rap, deservedly so, but the Commanders will be looking ahead to a Thursday night showdown with the Packers at Lambeau Field. That’s a big deal, especially considering this is a divisional rivalry and the Commanders won both games against the Giants by 3 and 5 points last season.
Now that they have gotten so much acclaim after their outstanding season last year, they are now weighted down by nearly a touchdown against a team that knows them well and has likely improved. Russell Wilson is now pulling the trigger for the Giants, and New York’s defense added Von Miller. Are both of these players past their respective primes? Yes, but aging superstars are better than pedestrian young guns.
Let’s grab the points with Big Blue.
Expert Pick: New York Giants +6 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
Cardinals -6 at Bovada
Cardinals -6 vs. Saints at Bovada
Arizona bolstered its defense in the offseason by adding Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell in free agency. This will make things difficult for New Orleans quarterback Spencer Rattler. Speaking of whom, Rattler was 2-5 ATS in games he started last year, and he’s more of a serviceable backup than a bona fide starter.
This is an ideal opportunity for Kyler Murray to establish chemistry with the highly touted Marvin Harrison Jr., who was lauded as a generational receiver by the “experts”. He certainly wasn’t last year in his rookie campaign, but we’ll see how he does this year. It has to be better, don’tcha think?
The Cardinals were 7-1 ATS against poor teams last year, and the Saints certainly qualify as such. Let’s get after it and back the road chalk here
Expert Pick: Arizona Cardinals -6 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada
Sunday Afternoon Football Prop Bets
Call me a bright-eyed optimist, but I believe Kyler Murray will torch the Saints’ lackluster defensive backfield. His passing yards total at Bovada is only 218½, and I am banking that our man goes way over.
Expert Pick: Kyler Murray Passing Yards Over 218½ (-115) for 1 unit at Bovada
2025 Futures Props
Season Totals
- Denver Over the Regular Season Wins – (+110 Over 9.5 Wins) 5 units at BetOnline
- Atlanta Over the Regular Season Wins – (-140 Over 7.5 Wins) 5 units at BetOnline
- Buffalo Over the Regular Season Wins – (+132 Over 12.5 Wins) 5 units at BetOnline
- NY Giants Under the Regular Season Wins – (-130 Under 5.5 Wins) 5 units at BetOnline
- Minnesota Over the Regular Season Wins – (+110 Over 9.5 Wins) 5 units at BetOnline
- Miami Under the Regular Season Wins – (-105 Under 7.5 Wins) 2.5 units at BetOnline
Division Winners
- Denver (+340) 2.5 units at Bovada
- Atlanta (+220) 2.5 units at Bovada
Super Bowl Exacta
- Buffalo vs. Minnesota (+7000), Philly (+2200), LA Rams (+4500) 1 unit each at Bookmaker
- Ravens vs. Minnesota (+7000), Philly (+2500), LA Rams (+4500) 1 unit each at Bookmaker
- Denver vs. Minny (+20000), Philly (+9000), LA Rams (+20000) 1 unit each at Bookmaker
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The Sunday afternoon NFL odds I posted today on the Steelers vs. Jets don’t stay stagnant forever. Neither do those on the Giants vs. Commanders or Cardinals vs. Saints. Odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the moneylines and point spreads you see here may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best lines or odds available.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
