Well, that was bound to happen eventually. None of the four underdogs in our Sunday morning football bets for Week 12 got to the pay window – not on the moneyline, that is. All four beat the spread, so we’ll call it a moral victory here at the home office.
Let’s see if we can put some actual victories on the board for our Week 13 football bets.
Best Bets for Rams vs. Panthers
We’re getting very close to that point in the regular season where underdogs lose their luster, but if we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, the following dogs belong in our early Sunday NFL picks:
- Carolina Panthers (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS)
- New York Jets (2-9 SU, 7-4 ATS)
- New Orleans Saints (2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS)
- Houston Texans (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS)
- Tennessee Titans (1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS)
The Panthers and Jets have done particularly well against the spread, so they’re naturally more appealing as moneyline targets for our Sunday picks.
We’re not seeing any sharp money landing on the ML for any of the Week 13 games just yet, but on the spread, reports say the wiseguys prefer the favorites instead of Houston, New Orleans, and Carolina. They also like Tennessee for some reason – and the Under in all five of our target matchups.
Today, we’ll focus on the Rams vs. Panthers game. Let’s find out where the best value is.
Sunday Morning Odds
You could stick with a simple spread bet or two, but maybe the Week 13 NFL moneylines at Heritage Sports will change your mind. Here’s what they look like at press time:
- Carolina +445 vs. L.A. Rams
- N.Y. Jets +120 vs. Atlanta
- New Orleans +225 at Miami
- Houston +185 at Indianapolis
- Tennessee +250 vs. Jacksonville
It’s a more competitive batch than we had last week, which means lower payouts in most cases – but not for the Rams-Panthers game, the tastiest matchup on Sunday’s betting list. Are you willing to risk it for the biscuit?
Sunday Morning Picks (Panthers +445)
In a vacuum, we have ample reason to take Carolina on the moneyline this Sunday. It’s the classic “West Coast team playing on the East Coast at 10 AM Pacific” angle. It’s also an opportunity to “sell high” on the publicly-adored Rams, who lead the NFC at 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS.
Not all the NFL predictions we’re looking at feel the same way. Some don’t like either side of this matchup for the spread or the moneyline; Under 45.5 does generate a fair chunk of expected value according to multiple projections, so maybe that’s the right choice with light showers in the forecast for Charlotte – but what about our classic same-game parlay with the moneyline, the Over and some NFL player props?
Expert Pick: Panthers ML (+445) at Heritage Sports
Panthers’ Rico Dowdle (Anytime TD Scorer +140)
We’re already cheating a bit by putting the moneyline dogs in our SGP instead of the favorites.
And as it turns out, there isn’t the same betting edge available for our would-be Panthers props as you’ll find elsewhere on Sunday’s NFL player props list.
If you are going to take the SGP route, hammer this Dowdle prop, which checks in at around 8% Expected Value on a projection of 0.7 touchdowns for the emerging star tailback.
Your Game Plan for Sunday Morning Football
You’ve got about a bazillion different ways to place your Sunday morning football bets, but your final decision depends entirely on which online sportsbooks you use. Are they sharp-friendly, or will they cap your wagers if you try to throw more than, say, $200 at any of these underdogs, or $100 at any of these NFL props?
Bookmakers Review has the skinny on all the major (and mid-major) sportsbooks, so you’ll know ahead of time who you’re dealing with and how they’ll treat your action.
The Best Odds Are at Bookmakers Review
Heritage has the highest payout for both the Panthers and the Texans as we go to press, but you’ll find better prices for our other three underdogs on the NFL odds board – if you shop around.
Sign up at the right sportsbooks for your betting needs, size your wagers appropriately, and may the prolate spheroid be with you this Thanksgiving.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
