After getting their hearts torn out last week, the SMU Mustangs are the wrong NCAAF pick for Saturday’s tilt with the Memphis Tigers. Let’s break down the matchup to find out why.
Southern Methodist vs. Memphis Tigers
Saturday, November 6, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
It took 30 years for the SMU Mustangs to escape Purgatory. They’re the only football team to ever receive the full “death penalty” from the NCAA for repeated violations, forcing them to suspend operations in 1987, cancel all their home games in 1988 (they chose to sit out the entire year), and lose a total of 55 scholarships, among other punitive measures – all for paying their recruits and lying about it.
Fast-forward to 2021, and the Mustangs (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) are thriving under head coach Sonny Dykes. This is his fourth full season at the helm; SMU finally made it back into the national rankings in Year Two, and they’re No. 23 on the AP poll heading into Saturday’s matchup with the Memphis Tigers (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS). Which team belongs in your college football picks?
The consensus reports at press time have 93 percent of early bettors taking SMU, who are priced as 5.5-point road faves on the college football board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review). Maybe they’re right.
Methodist Coloring Book
This is a tough call. The Mustangs have faced a fluffy-puff schedule in the American, leaving them at No. 50 overall (No. 24 offense, No. 77 defense) on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders. But Memphis’ schedule hasn’t been that much better, and they’re even further down the efficiency list at No. 81 (No. 59 offense, No. 85 defense). This conference is going to be screwed when Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida jump to the Big 12.
Speaking of Houston, they pulled off one of the all-time college football heists last week when they scored the winning touchdown on a 100-yard kick-off return to beat SMU 44-37 as 1-point home faves. That takes the Mustangs out of playoff contention. How will they respond?
On top of that, Dykes is reportedly the No. 1 target for the open head coaching position at Texas Tech – he played baseball there, and his father Spike ran the football program from 1986 to 1999. Woof.
The Pick
If we just stick with the projections, maybe the Mustangs are worth a slight lean, but it’s hard to say. I’ll spare you the details; the NCAAF odds for this matchup are tight, and that includes the enormous 71-point total at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review). Alas, there’s nothing in the weather report to help us with the Under, just sunshine and temperatures in the mid-60s. But pick a side we must.
And that side will indeed be the Tigers – but for a suitably small bet. The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, and their motivation for Saturday’s contest is very much in question. Hey, at least their players can sign NIL agreements now. Baby steps.
NCAAF Pick: Memphis +5.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
