The Houston Cougars were 20-4 at one point and it seemed like Houston would never lose again. Eventually, Houston lost to SMU and Memphis back-to-back and many analysts and bettors backed away from Houston.
Since those two losses, Houston is 3-0, despite needing double overtime against Wichita State, on the road, last weekend. The Cougars will now be looking for revenge against the SMU Mustangs, who ended their 12-game winning streak.
The Houston Cougars will look to split the regular-season series with the SMU Mustangs after the SMU Mustangs ended Houston’s 12-game winning streak earlier this season. Can Houston take care of business and cover the double-digit spread in this matchup? Keep reading as we’ll break down the NCAAB odds and share a winning pick!
SMU Mustangs vs. Houston Cougars
Sunday, February 27, 2022 – 12:30 PM EST at Fertitta Center
On paper, Houston is the better team. The Cougars are still a championship contender at the end of the day. On the defensive end, Houston is holding opponents to a 43.3 percent effective field goal percentage. Opponents have hit just 29.6 percent from deep and 42.3 percent from inside the arc against Houston this season.
The Cougars have limited offensive rebounding to 27.1 percent on the season and that should work out nicely against an SMU team that is about average on the offensive glass.
The Mustangs, on the other hand, have shot 37 percent from deep and 51.4 percent from inside the arc. SMU isn’t afraid to take a whole bunch of threes, and of course, hit those shots at a consistent pace. The Mustangs will still need to be careful holding onto the basketball, knowing Houston is earning 21.9 percent of turnovers this season.
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But because of Houston’s aggressiveness, there’s a good chance SMU gets to the line at an above-average rate today. The Mustangs are shooting 74.3 percent from the charity stripe this season.
Houston’s offense is also just as elite as its offense. The Cougars are shooting 34.6 percent from deep and 54.7 percent from inside the arc. From the foul line, Houston has struggled, hitting just 66.2 percent of shots. But there’s a good chance SMU has more opportunity at the line anyway.
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Houston is earning 36.8 percent of offensive rebounds and that’s the one area where Houston can do real damage against SMU. SMU is allowing 29.1 percent of offensive rebounds and also struggles to earn turnovers at a consistent level. Still, the Mustangs are a solid defensive, giving up just 30.5 percent from three and 45.5 percent from inside the arc this season.
Prediction
This season, opponents are only scoring 59 points per game against Houston. With SMU on the road, it’s going to be extremely hard for the Mustangs to have large success shooting from distance.
Meanwhile, SMU’s defense is also very talented. The Mustangs won’t earn many turnovers or keep Houston off the glass, but overall, Houston won’t be shooting lights out from the field. Therefore, I’ll grab the 'under' 137 for my college basketball picks.
NCAAB Pick: Under 137 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
