The men’s semifinals play today at the Rolex Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 event. We have an exciting quarterfinal round with three of the matches being three-set affairs.
Let’s take a look at today’s ATP odds to find the winning pick.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Saturday, April 16, 2022 – 07:30 AM EDT at Court Rainier III
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won a three-set battle against Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals to advance to the semifinal today. After a slow start, Davidovich Fokina was able to prevail 2-6, 6-4, 6-3. It was Davidovich Fokina’s second three-set victory so far in this tournament.
His first was against world number one Novak Djokovic. Davidovich Fokina shocked the world in the second round when he was able to win 6-3, 6-7, 6-1 in Djokovic's first appearance in over a month. It was the best win of the 22-year-old Spanish player's career. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is currently ranked number 46 in the world.
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Like most Spanish players, Alejandro David Fokina was raised on clay and this is his best surface. Davidovich Fokina has excellent groundstrokes that use the heavy topspin that is preferred by Spanish coaches. The 22-year-old talent is a hard worker with excellent conditioning, which was key in his win over Taylor Fritz.
Davidovich Fokina wore down the young American star, and his fitness played a crucial role in his victory. With the victory, he moves up 8-10 on the year with a hold/break percentage of 102.6%.
Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov overcame Hubert Hurkacz and his quarterfinal match. Dimitrov won a hard-fought battle 6-4, 3-6, 7-6. Hurkacz was serving for the match when Dimitrov was able to make the crucial break to extend the match. It was an impressive show of resilience. Hurkacz holds at over a 90% clip this year.
From that point forward, it felt like Dimitrov was in control and he stole the momentum. Grigor Dimitrov's ability to make the clutch play was the difference in his win over the up-and-coming, hard-serving, Polish player.
In the round of 16, Grigor Dimitrov had another impressive win over one of the ATP's top guns. Dimitrov defeated Norwegian Casper Ruud, who is ranked number 7 in the world, with a scoreboard of 6-3, 7-5. Ruud is a strong clay-court player.
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For Dimitrov to get a win over a player of Ruud's caliber, on his preferred surface, is a sign that the 30-year-old Dimitrov is still here to compete with anyone at the ATP's top level. In his first two matches in Monte Carlo, Dimitrov defeated Nikoloz Basilashvili and Dusan Lajovic.
After falling in the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, his performance this week marks Dimitrov's best performance this season. Dimitrov is an accomplished hardcourt player. For him to do so well on clay is a good harbinger of success for Dimitrov's 2022 season. Dimitrov is 11-7 on the year with the hold/break percentage of 104.6%.
Betting Analysis
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Grigor Dimitrov have played each other once. They faced each other last season in Rome, which is also a clay tournament. Davidovich Fokina was able to get the victory 6-4, 7-6. A match from one year ago with each player, particularly Dimitrov, playing at completely different levels of their ability, is not necessarily predictive.
Yet it must give Davidovich Fokina a mental edge to know that he has beaten Dimitrov at least once. A win today would be the first final appearance in a Masters 1000 tournament in his career.
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Despite Grigor Dimitrov having the statistical edge, I like Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to get the win here today. As well as Dimitrov has been playing, the young Spaniard is playing his best right now with nothing to lose. Davidovich Fokina has been playing better than expected and his level seems to be rising with each match.
Davidovich Fokina should have the advantage in groundstrokes, and should be able to win more of the extended rallies. The Spanish players have been traditionally dominant on clay. The rise of Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz has overshadowed the leaps and bounds by which Davidovich Fokina has improved as of late.
ATP Pick
While all eyes have been firmly focused on Alcaraz, Davidovich Fokina has been improving under the radar. Davidovich Fokina has a great chance to remind everyone that Alcaraz is not the only young player from Spain who is poised to make a mark on the ATP tour.
Davidovich Fokina should feel comfortable and at home in the conditions today. Today’s tennis pick for the Monte Carlo ATP event is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML.
ATP Pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to Win ML (-137) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
