The Boston Red Sox have fallen apart quicker than a five-team parlay on a Sunday afternoon in the NFL. The question is can they recover and still make the playoffs or take back the lead in the AL East? The betting odds at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review) have Boston as a -120 favorite, trying to overcome a second straight blown lead.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, August 11, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We’ve all experienced it. Life is sailing along, everything is good. Then, out of nowhere, life comes at you at warp speed and the events are far from good and suffer a series of setbacks. Maybe you saw this coming, maybe you didn’t, but no matter what, it happened.
Boston opened their series last night against first place Tampa Bay having lost nine of 11. While the Red Sox stumbled in the abyss, the Rays started rolling and went 8-2. Tampa Bay blew by Boston like a rabbit going past a dog, who wanted to chase, but realized he had no chance. After Tuesday’s affair, the Rays lead the BoSox by six games in the loss column, outscoring Boston 6-0 from the seventh inning on for the W.
Tampa Bay Offense Is Productive
The Rays offense is one of the most fascinating in baseball and it matches their culture and explains how they go about their business, unimpeded in worrying what others think.
Tampa Bay has a Top Five scoring offense at 5.1 runs a game. While batting averages don’t mean what they used to, it is noteworthy that a team could rank 21st in that category and still score as many runs as they do.
One of the ills of baseball is batters striking out, yet, here is Tampa Bay leading the majors in whiffs at about 10 a game, using the belief an out is an out. However, they help themselves by averaging 3.7 walks a contest.
To truly understand how the Rays are so effective on offense, you have to use new stats like BsR - Base runs: the number of runs a team "should have" scored given their component offensive statistics and wRC+ - Weighted Runs Created Plus: The stat invented by Bill James which adjusts the number to account for external factors, such as ballpark effects. In these, the Rays are second and sixth respectively, which explains their success externally.
Boston Has to Rekindle the Magic
The Red Sox came unglued in all facets during this collapse. Part of Boston’s demise was predictable, as the starting pitching, which was not all that impressive to start the season, proved unreliable.
Boston’s starting pitching ERA was between ninth and 12 most the season and then it started to slide and sits at 19th today. That in turn had an impact on the bullpen by usage and after being around number seven, going one up or down from there, they have tumbled to No. 12 in ERA.
Much of this was covered by the Red Sox offense. Unfortunately, they too were finally affected and in this losing stretch, they averaged a measly 3.3 RPG and the slide convened.
Can Boston flip the switch? Only if the pitching improves and the offense returns. Take it into consideration for your MLB odds.
Pitching Breakdown
Josh Fleming (9-5, 4.12 ERA) is the assigned starter for the Rays and he’s done a mixture of things, with 10 starts in his 18 appearances this year. In truth, it is a little surprising Tampa Bay keeps starting Fleming since his ERA is a run higher when he’s not coming out of the bullpen, which correlates to batting average allowed at .262 vs. .213.
Among the pitchers scuffling for Boston is tonight’s starter Nathan Eovaldi (9-7, 4.00). The right-hander has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in his last two starts covering 10 innings, on 14 hits. Three of those base hits were home runs. Consider in his previous eight starts, totaling almost 50 innings, Eovaldi had surrendered three long balls. He is 3-6 with a 4.91 vs. the Rays.
Game Prediction
After surveying several sportsbooks and taking everything into consideration for MLB picks, we settled on Tampa Bay as an underdog. The Rays have the second-best win percentage on the road with a record of 34-22 and they are 16-9 (+11.6 Units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.
Manager Kevin Cash’s club has played the best against the best with a 17-5 mark when playing against a team with a win percentage 54% to 62% in the second half of the season since 2019 and they are 7-0 in road games off three straight wins against division rivals.
Free MLB Picks: Rays (+110) ML at GTbets.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
