Last year, the NFL was truly crazy to let the Baltimore Ravens acquire superstar running back Derrick Henry. They were fortunate the defense took a step back for half a season and when the tight ends had season-beginning (Isaiah Likely’s toe out of bounds in Kansas City on opening night) and season-ending mistakes (Mark Andrews in the playoffs in Buffalo) to sink the team in the AFC divisional round.
Lamar Jackson was better than ever last season and won just about every individual honor (1st-Team All-Pro quarterback, PFWA MVP award) except for the Associated Press MVP after a few voters went rogue and changed their All-Pro vote from Jackson to Josh Allen. God forbid he wins a 3rd MVP for his best season before poor Allen wins any MVPs.
But the Ravens frankly should have been better than 12-5 last year. Tough losses to the Raiders and Browns didn’t help early. Now, Jackson will try to continue his hot hand and take his passing to another level after doing it in 2024. But Henry will be 32 years old in January, and there’s a lot of tread on those tires.
The Ravens have the 4th-best Super Bowl odds (+775 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)) in the league right now, but they have yet to break through to the big game since 2012. Let’s look at some player props and the team props with the best value for the 2025 Ravens.
Lamar Jackson – Over/Under 3450.5 Passing Yards
I had to check 3 times that my eyes saw the right number, because this feels like a 16-game line for 2022 Lamar Jackson and not a 17-game line for 2025 Lamar Jackson. He just had his best passing season by far with 4,172 yards, and even in 2023, his disputed MVP season, he still threw for 3,678 yards in 16 games, sitting out the season finale.
Sure, Jackson may have an injury risk because of the way he runs and the way he ended 2021 and 2022 with December injuries that kept him off the field. But he’s been fairly healthy in his 5 other seasons aside from the occasional stomach bug. Not a big concern with his durability.
If anything, the Ravens should lean more on Jackson’s passing and less on Henry’s rushing in 2025 given his continued comfort with Todd Monken’s offense and Henry’s age and heavy workload. Give me the over every day for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 3450.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Derrick Henry – Over/Under 1375.5 Rushing Yards
This is another betting line that’s considering age and durability concerns for a running back who turns 32 the 1st week of January and just had 344 touches with 42 more in the playoffs.
But Derrick Henry is not your ordinary back, and he proved last year his 30s won’t stop him from getting through a whole season, and he’s a perfect fit for this offense with Jackson helping to enhance his running. Henry averaged a career-high 5.9 yards per carry in 2024 – you don’t just beat your career best by half a yard at age 30-31 by chance. That’s the Jackson effect.
Red Flags for Aging Backs
However, NFL history is not kind to running backs of this age. Only 14 have rushed for over 1375.5 yards in their 30s, and 9-of-14 were exactly 30 years old. Henry had the most yards ever for a 30-year-old back last year with 1,921.
The most rushing yards by a 31-year-old running back was 1,697 by Curtis Martin for the 2004 Jets, over 20 years ago. But Henry just needs 1375.5 yards. I think if the line was 1475, I’d take the under just out of caution for the cliff coming any day now for Henry. But at 1375.5, that’s more than doable in an offense that you know won’t ever abandon the run.
He just needs to stay healthy, but getting even sides on this bet makes it worth the risk of Henry going over. If it was juiced to -130 or higher, you should take the under.
NFL Pick: Derrick Henry Over 1375.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Zay Flowers – Over/Under 900.5 Receiving Yards
Similar to the Lamar Jackson line, this feels like a low number and a good value for the over. Zay Flowers had 858 yards as a rookie and 1,059 yards in 2024. He was injured early in Week 18 last year and did not play the rest of the season, but he was close to returning. It’s not like he had a torn Achilles or ACL to recover from. He’ll be fine.
He’s still the No. 1 wide receiver for Jackson, and he’s a threat at every level of the field. The Ravens added veteran DeAndre Hopkins, but he doesn’t generate much separation and shouldn’t be a real factor in this offense – think Odell Beckham Jr. in 2023. Only good for a few plays here and there.
You should trust Flowers to keep ascending and have another sound season as he surpasses 900.5 yards.
NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
2025 Ravens Regular Season Wins
The Ravens are tied for the highest preseason win total at 11.5 wins, a number they just cleared last year at 12-5, but you have to remember they lost to the Raiders (controversial pass interference penalty on 3rd-and-16) and Browns (dropped a game-ending Jameis Winston interception), teams who were a combined 5-26 when they weren’t playing Baltimore last year.
So, in a way, you could argue the Ravens underachieved last year as this team should have had a better record after taking down another 9 teams with a winning record after doing it to 10 (single-season record) in 2023.
The offense isn’t likely to repeat its low turnover numbers combined with all the big plays they generated in 2024, but it should still be one of the best units in the NFL. The defense is usually reliable and finished 2024 on a high note after a bad start. John Harbaugh is also one of the steadier coaches in the league.
The early schedule is going to be tough with trips to Buffalo and Kansas City, the teams they can’t seem to beat in January. They also have to host the Lions on a Monday night in Week 3, which should be fun. But they have the ability to go 4-2 or better in the division, and they don’t have to leave home for a month after that tough stretch with an early by included.
Strong Finish in Sight
Not a tough middle, and we’ll see how it goes late in the year with back-to-back road games in Green Bay and Pittsburgh to end the season. It’s hard to see where the Ravens lose multiple games in a row with this schedule.
While it doesn’t set up well for a No. 1 seed and the easiest path to the Super Bowl, there should be enough improved play and wins to go 12-5 again and hit the over. Just be sure to get close to even odds for it as it’s probably going to be close at the end of the year.
NFL Pick: 2025 Ravens Over 11.5 Wins (-115) at Bovada
2025 Ravens – AFC North Odds
This could be viewed as the better value pick for the Ravens than over 11.5 wins if you think the AFC North may be more competitive this year, with the Bengals trying to improve their defense, the Steelers adding Aaron Rodgers, and it’s hard for the Browns to do any worse.
But the Ravens should still be the class of this division as they have the best quarterback, the best running back, the best coach, and the most reliable defense, even if it’s lacking a superstar on the level of Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt right now.
Also, there’s the simple fact that Bengals didn’t do a lot to improve their defense outside of firing their coordinator, drafting a 1st-round pick (Shemar Stewart) who they haven’t been able to sign yet, and they haven’t made Trey Hendrickson, their only good pass rusher, happy with a contract extension yet either. They’re basically hoping for the same formula that led to missing the playoffs in 2023-24 will help them get back this year.
The Lamar Jackson Factor
But the truth is the Bengals’ secret sauce to winning the AFC North in 2021-22 was Lamar Jackson getting injured in December while the Ravens had the division lead, and he never played again in either season. If Lamar is healthy, the Ravens should win this division.
Even with Pittsburgh, Aaron Rodgers is coming off his 2 worst statistical seasons with a torn Achilles in between. He’s going to be 42 in December, so if we have concerns about Henry’s age, they’re not nearly as bad as Rodgers’ situation. Also, the Steelers traded away George Pickens and only got D.K. Metcalf in return.
Sure, Pittsburgh will likely split with Baltimore again, because that’s what happens in this rivalry. But the Ravens can afford a loss to them and still win the division. Not sure the same can be said of the Bengals right now.
It’s really hard to win the AFC North 3 years in a row, but let’s go with the Ravens to do just that in 2025.
NFL Pick: 2025 AFC North Winner – Baltimore Ravens (-145) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
