NFL NFC South Player Props: Believe in Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson
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Scott Kacsmar
- August 6, 2025
The NFC South has not been one of the NFL’s strongest divisions, which is why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep winning it with a 27-24 record over the last 3 seasons. But it is home to some exciting offensive players that you can bet on prop picks for with NFL futures bets in the 2025 season.
We’ll look at Tampa Bay’s high-powered offense adding another weapon for Baker Mayfield, the Falcons turning the keys over to Michael Penix Jr., and the Carolina Panthers hoping Year 3 is the charm for quarterback Bryce Young. The Saints are also rebuilding with a rookie coach and quarterback duo in Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough.
We’ll pick our favorite player prop for each team and the best value pick for who wins the division title this year at top sportsbooks.
Current Odds to Win the Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson
- Over/Under 1175.5 Rushing Yards
There is arguably no player more important in the NFC South in 2025 than quarterback Michael Penix Jr. It was a bold choice for Atlanta to draft him 8th overall in 2024 after signing Kirk Cousins to a big 4-year contract worth $180 million. The worst nightmare scenario kind of played out with Cousins getting benched for Penix late in Year 1 of this experiment.
But with Penix taking over for the start of 2025, maybe it’s the best move to get this team back on track. One player who should appreciate the move to a younger, more mobile quarterback – to be fair, Cousins might not beat any player in a footrace in 2025 – is running back Bijan Robinson.
He’s another No. 8 pick the Falcons added in 2023 that some thought was too high for a back. But he can make plays few can, and he picked up his game in Year 2 by rushing for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns.
When Penix took over late in the season, Robinson had some of his best games yet with 94, 90, and 170 rushing yards. The Falcons are still going to throw the ball frequently as Penix was a prolific college passer and was already showing he can handle things as a rookie.
But if the Falcons are indeed an improved team with Penix and the additions they’ve made to the pass rush, that means they should have more leads this year and win more games. That means more rushing attempts, so a running back who already broke 1,400 yards on an 8-9 team last year could realistically do even better on a winning team in 2025 with better quarterback play keeping the offense on the field.
The Falcons seem to understand what former coach Arthur Smith didn’t and that is Robinson is their best weapon, so let’s use him as much as possible. He could even end up leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage this year if everything works out well, but let’s just go with over 1175.5 rushing yards for now.
Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young
- Over/Under 18.5 Passing Touchdowns
Most quarterbacks don’t need 3 seasons to have a breakout year. Josh Allen did that in 2020, so it’s going to leave hope for everyone else now that the 3rd time is the charm. That’s what Bryce Young, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, will hope for too before Carolina tries to get rid of him if things don’t work out this year.
New coach Dave Canales was quick to bench Young last year after a couple of games for Andy Dalton, but that seemed to work. He played better, and by season’s end, he had the Panthers hanging in there with the Eagles and Chiefs, the 2 Super Bowl teams.
Some of the numbers were still underwhelming for Young, but he threw 15 touchdowns in 12 starts. He watched rookie Xavier Legette drop a game-winning touchdown in Philadelphia. If Young can play a full season here, then even if he ascends to a league-average quarterback, he shouldn’t have much trouble throwing over 18.5 touchdowns.
It should also help that the Panthers got him a top-rated wide receiver prospect in the 1st round in Tetairoa McMillan. He’s 6’4”, so that size could really help in the red zone where he still has Adam Thielen as a reliable slot and maybe Legette, last year’s high pick, can make a big improvement in Year 2.
Trusting Young to have a true breakout season that leads the Panthers to the playoffs is pushing it. But over 18.5 touchdown passes in a 17-game season? We’ll buy it.
New Orleans Saints – Chris Olave
- Over/Under 850.5 Receiving Yards
The expectations are so low for the Saints that we almost wanted to make our best pick a defensive prop for linebacker Demario Davis going over 114.5 tackles and assists (-115 at BetOnline). He is 36, but he’s played at least 16 games in all 13 seasons of his NFL career, and he’s had 121 and 136 total tackles the last 2 years for a team expected to be poor on both sides of the ball. That means a lot of tackles for New Orleans’ best tackler.
But let’s try to think of a positive for the offense too. Kellen Moore comes over from the Eagles, where he was the offensive coordinator for a great offense with a ton of talent. He was also successful in Dallas with a yardage and scoring juggernaut down there. He had 1 year in Los Angeles and it just so happened to be the year Justin Herbert was injured in 2023.
But if you look at a common link for Moore’s offenses and it’s that he knows to get his No. 1 wide receiver the ball very frequently. He did it in Dallas with CeeDee Lamb, he did it in Philly with A.J. Brown, and even in 2023, Keenan Allen had 1,243 yards despite playing in 13 games.
Moore has his work cut out for him with a rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough, who played at Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville, so he’s been around a lot of systems. But Moore is a smart guy who has adapted to the quarterback talent in front of him.
Olave’s Still That Guy
It could even be Spencer Rattler in September, and that’s the only scary news for the return of Chris Olave, who suffered multiple concussions last year with Rattler on the passing end of that play against the Buccaneers that initially knocked Olave out.
But when healthy, Olave is a clear-cut No. 1 wideout and had 1,042 and 1,123 yards in his first 2 NFL seasons. Last year, he was limited to 400 yards in 8 games, but even that put him on pace for practically 850.5 yards. He also played closer to 6 games than 8 games because of injuries that knocked him out early.
Olave is an easier target to throw to than the speedy Rashid Shaheed, who requires more touch and skill that the Saints’ 2025 quarterback room just may not be able to exploit. So, look for Moore to feature Olave as much as he can. Look for the Saints to trail often enough too so that he has another shot at a 1,000-yard season, quarterback situation be damned.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bucky Irving
- Over/Under 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns
The Buccaneers turned into an offensive machine last year, finishing in the top 4 in both points and yards. They were also the No. 1 offense on 3rd down and No. 4 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns. They’ll have to make up for losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who left to coach the Jaguars. But Baker Mayfield is used to learning from new offensive coaches.
The Bucs even added another 1st-round wide receiver in Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State. But instead of playing a prop pick on the passing game, let’s look at that running game. The Bucs seemed to realize late in the season that rookie Bucky Irving was simply better than veteran Rachaad White.
- Irving rushed for 8 touchdowns, 55.1% success rate, and averaged 5.4 yards per carry.
- White rushed for 3 touchdowns, 50.7% success rate, and averaged 4.3 yards per carry.
They had similar receiving numbers too, though White caught 6 touchdowns to none for Irving, who is more of a downfield runner. But it was Irving who was featured down the stretch, including the playoff loss to Washington where Irving had 17 carries to just 1 carry for White.
The 2025 season may be one where Mayfield takes a step back without Coen after he had a career year with 41 touchdown passes – 13 more than his previous career high. Maybe some of those nicely-designed plays with Coen disappear this year and his touchdown count goes down because of that.
But the Bucs are good enough to pound it in with Irving, who already had 8 touchdowns in a shared backfield as a rookie. He should be even better in 2025, so let’s go with him to score over 7.5 rushing touchdowns for an offense that should still rank very high in scoring.
2025-26 NFC South Division Winner
The odds to win the 2025-26 NFC South stand as follows from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review):
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-125)
- Atlanta Falcons (+240)
- Carolina Panthers (+425)
- New Orleans Saints (+1200)
Even the most die-hard Saints fan will likely admit the team has a long way to go in 2025, so that’s not a realistic choice here. The Panthers just getting to 9-8 would be a huge achievement too for that team, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017.
But the Falcons also haven’t been to the playoffs since 2017, and that’s the value pick here instead of picking the Buccaneers to win the division for a 5th-straight year. You get the attractive changes in Atlanta with Penix and a pair of 1st-round pass rushers, not to mention it’s a coach in Year 2 of his system. Dan Quinn was in Year 2 in Atlanta when he reached the Super Bowl in 2016.
Not saying you should back the Falcons for the Super Bowl, but it’s a new era with Penix and he’s got some really great weapons in Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. They also swept Tampa Bay last year, and the Bucs rarely make any big changes, which is probably why they hover around 8-to-10 wins the last 3 years. It’s hard to see how a rookie wideout (Egbuka) replacing an injured Chris Godwin (for the time being) helps to make this team better in 2025.
So, let’s go with a change of direction in the NFC South and for the Atlanta Falcons to win it for the 1st time since 2016.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
