Top NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 3875.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Detroit Lions had their best regular season ever in 2024, finishing 15-2 with a +222 scoring differential. But for as great as Dan Campbell’s team did throughout the season, things unraveled quickly in the playoffs after a stunning loss to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round.
After the NFC North had arguably the greatest division in NFL history, the fact is none of those teams won a playoff game as the Vikings and Packers also lost their 1st playoff game.
But this is one of the most interesting division races in 2025 as there could be a shift in power now that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has left Detroit to coach the Bears, who expect to be much better in Year 2 with quarterback Caleb Williams. That move could also weaken the Lions, a team led by its offense again with Jared Goff and company.
However, maybe this is an opportunity for the Lions to get healthy on defense – nothing bigger than getting Aidan Hutchinson back – and improve greatly on that side of the ball, lessening the need for the offense to be as sharp without Johnson’s play-calling brilliance. Either way, Campbell will have to show he can keep things going without his coordinators, as defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took the Jets’ coaching job.
The Lions are still the favorite to win the NFC North (+155 at Bovada) for the 3rd year in a row, which would be an amazing transformation for a franchise that’s only stacked this many playoff appearances in 1952-54 and 1993-95.
Let’s look at our favorite prop picks and team picks for the Lions this season.
NFC North Division Winner Odds
Jared Goff
- Over/Under 3875.5 Passing Yards
It’s a little surprising that Jared Goff has a line of over/under 3875.5 passing yards this season. He has passed for 4,438, 4,575, and 4,629 yards in the last 3 seasons for Detroit. He’s also been very durable in his career, starting at least 14 games in every season since 2017, and he hasn’t missed a single game since the 2021 season when he was traded to Detroit.
On top of his recent success, Goff passed for over 4,600 yards in consecutive seasons with the Rams in 2018-19, so he is one of the most prolific passers in NFL history at 261.6 yards per game – exactly what you’d expect from a No. 1 overall pick.
But the elephant in the room, or at least the one people will pretend exists, is the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. He’s a smart guy who says all the right things, but you have to trust that Goff is a seasoned veteran and is used to seeing changes in the coaching staff on his teams. He’s not going to suddenly forget how to throw the ball in 2025, and he still has great weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams.
If anything, it’s the running game that could suffer more with the loss of Johnson. Not being creative enough in that department combined with center Frank Ragnow retiring could lead to a decreased running game, which would only implore Goff to keep throwing more.
Even if you think Goff will throw more interceptions without Johnson’s guidance, that should still help him rack up passing yards. When Goff threw a career-high 16 interceptions in 2019, he passed for 4,638 yards in a non-playoff season.
Season props like this are durability tests as much as anything as any injury could tank an over from hitting. But let’s trust Goff to stay upright and keep throwing a lot to hit this over. It’s a safer pick than his touchdown passes going over since we know the Lions like to run it in with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and the loss of Johnson could resonate more in the red zone and coming up with creative plays for easy scoring tosses.
But yardage? Goff was born to rack up 4,000-yard seasons. Going over 3,875.5 yards should not be a struggle for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 3875.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Over/Under 1075.5 Receiving Yards
Goff’s favorite target remains Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is having a Herman Moore-like run in Detroit with at least 106 catches in each of the last 3 seasons. In 2024, St. Brown caught 115 balls for 1,263 yards and a career-high 12 touchdowns.
There’s no reason St. Brown shouldn’t still be the top receiver on this team by a wide margin. Most of their weapons are returning, Jameson Williams is eyeing a big 2nd contract from some team (Detroit or otherwise), but St. Brown is still the reliable chain mover and security blanket for Goff. The Lions also drafted Isaac TeSlaa in the 3rd round, but he’s no higher than WR4 on the depth chart this year.
St. Brown has not finished under 1,161 yards since his rookie year. This line feels very doable for him, and he’s also missed just 2 games in his 4-year career, so he’s been reliably durable.
We like Goff to go over in passing yards, so it’s only fitting we’d also like St. Brown to go over in receiving yards.
NFL Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 1075.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Jahmyr Gibbs
- Over/Under 1075.5 Rushing Yards
There’s a lot of hype for Jahmyr Gibbs to win Offensive Player of the Year. However, that’s a tough sell when you consider that usually goes to a rushing champion if a running back wins the award now. With the Lions’ strategy of using David Montgomery with Gibbs, it makes it almost impossible for him to win a rushing title unless Montgomery gets injured in September. No one wants to see that happen either.
But even with Montgomery getting his share of touches last year, Gibbs stepped up and rushed for 1,412 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry, which was up from his rookie season (5.2) despite the heavier workload – a good sign he is the real deal.
We’ve said the loss of coordinator Ben Johnson and retirement of center Frank Ragnow could be problematic for the consistency of the running game. However, the Lions are still a great line, they still have a good chance to win many games, which leads to more rushing attempts. Gibbs is also very talented and can hit big runs as he had a 70-yard run last year.
Fade the Offensive Player of the Year award, but we’ll gladly take the over 1075.5 rushing yards for Gibbs.
NFL Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 1075.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
2025 Lions Regular Season Wins – Over/Under 10.5 Wins
The 2025 Lions have a win total of 10.5 wins at Bovada with the following odds:
- Over 10.5 wins (+105)
- Under 10.5 wins (-135)
The Lions were 15-2 last year, but historically speaking, 15-win teams do tend to regress by about 5 wins the following year. The sample size of 15-win teams is still very small, and adding a 17th game in 2021 changes this a little as well. But you should expect the Lions to lose more games than they did last year even if the team has a shot to get better with the return of Aidan Hutchinson on defense.
Hutchinson was having a Defensive Player of the Year type of season when he was lost in Dallas in October. That was a big blow to the Lions, but they also suffered so many other defensive injuries that it’s hard to say if even a healthy Hutchinson would have won the game against Jayen Daniels and Washington in January.
Alas, this is a tough pick as the Lions have a difficult division to deal with, and it just feels like something crazy could happen in the NFC North after the way 2024 went down. For example, imagine if Ben Johnson is the real deal and leads Chicago to the division title, winning Coach of the Year in the process.
You also can’t sleep on the Packers, who played Detroit tough late in the year and beat them in their building on Thanksgiving the year before. The Vikings may take a step back, but you never know as inexperienced quarterback J.J. McCarthy is one of the biggest wild cards in the 2025 NFL season.
You have tough division battles on this schedule. You also have the Lions going on the road (no dome for Goff) against some of the better AFC teams, including the Ravens, Bengals, and Chiefs all in the first 6 weeks of the season.
If that’s not crazy enough, the Lions will later face the Commanders, Eagles, and Rams on the road as well – that’s 3 of the top NFC Super Bowl contenders this year. The Lions end the season on the road too with those rematches against the Vikings and Bears.
If the NFC North teams remain competitive (Chicago improved), then you’re looking at potentially one of the toughest road schedules for a team in NFL history. Throw in the coordinators getting replaced and the general regression for 15-win teams, and I agree with the under having juiced odds here.
The Lions will finish 10-7 at best this season.
NFL Pick: 2025 Lions Under 10.5 Wins (-135) at Bovada
2025 Lions – Do They Make the Playoffs Again?
While much of the NFL schedule is planned years in advance with rotational play, there are some very interesting schedules in 2025 based on which divisions are playing each other. So much of success in the NFL is who you play and when you play them, and last year, the NFC North had 3 teams win 11 games in large part because they played the AFC South and NFC West, divisions that weren’t great.
This year, the NFC North is playing a usually competitive AFC North, and the NFC East could be deeper than usual if Washington repeats its success, the Eagles are the champs, the Giants have Russell Wilson, and the Cowboys get a new coach and healthy Dak Prescott back.
Meanwhile, teams in the NFC West get a favorable draw as they’ll play the NFC South and AFC South, which both still look like underwhelming divisions. That’s why a team like the 49ers could be a great pick to bounce back with health and an easy schedule to return to the playoffs.
The easiest way to make the playoffs is still to win the division. We just predicted a 10-7 finish at best for Detroit, and it’s unclear if that’ll be good enough to win this division that needed a 15-2 record to win it last year with Detroit edging out Minnesota in the final game.
But that’s why we think it’s best to fade the NFC North race as it’s simply too close to call right now. However, it still looks likely that the NFC North should get multiple playoff teams this year. Maybe not 3 like last year, but 2 should be a comfortable bet.
We’re going to trust that Campbell is good enough to get the team back in the tournament and another crack at things. The return of Hutchinson is big, the defense can’t get any more injured than it did last year, and they still have great weapons even if the offensive efficiency may drop some without Johnson calling the plays this year.
Wild card or NFC North winner again, we’ll take the Lions to make the playoffs for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Detroit Lions to Make the Playoffs (-230) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
