NFL Browns Player Props: Old Man Flacco or Shedeur Sanders?
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Scott Kacsmar
- June 30, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Myles Garrett Under 14.25 Sacks (-150) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The quarterback room for the 2025 Browns looks like something from one of those reality shows like Love Island. Just way too much drama and we’re not even considering their most expensive asset in Deshaun Watson because of his ruptured Achilles injury.
But the Browns could start 40-year-old Joe Flacco, they could go with Kenny Pickett, or they could go with one of the 2 rookies they drafted in Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders.
Yes, the biggest drop in draft history for a quarterback is the story here, but it may not make much of a dent on the 2025 season in Cleveland if they just start Flacco, who led the team on a miracle run to the playoffs in 2023.
But things are not looking so optimistic right now as top-rated sportsbooks are basically not touching the prop picks for the Cleveland offense since it’s so unclear who that quarterback will be for most of the season. For that matter, they’re not sure what to make of Jerry Jeudy’s career season that was inflated by one huge revenge game in Denver, and the backfield is a mess with Nick Chubb off to Houston and the team drafted 2 running backs too.
That’s why we’re looking at Myles Garrett’s sacks in addition to the team’s over/under in wins. The Browns are +20000 to win Super Bowl LX, which we’re not even going to entertain this season.
Myles Garrett
- Over/Under 14.25 Sacks
You might as well look at the prop pick line for Cleveland’s best player, which is still edge rusher Myles Garrett as he enters his age-30 season. His over/under sack line is set to 14.25, which looks funny until you remember half sacks are a real thing. It’s already shaping up to be a historical bad beat if you take under 14.25 sacks and he gets to 14.5 sacks on the final Sunday of the season.
But the fact is, Garrett has had 14.0 sacks in consecutive seasons. In his 8 NFL seasons, he’s only gone over 14.25 sacks twice when he had 16.0 sacks in 2021 and 2022. At 30 years old and now making over $40 million per year after a thought he might leave for a contender, Garrett isn’t washed up, but he may be on the back end of his prime.
Then if you just think through this logically, he’ll be scheduled to face Aaron Rodgers twice with the Steelers. Rodgers is harder to sack than Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, so that’s not a positive for Garrett. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow generally know how to play against him and the Browns too in those division games.
Road games indoors like the Lions (Jared Goff) and Raiders (Geno Smith) could be tough to get sacks. Tough to get leads and play with his ears pinned back too. Granted, Garrett is scheduled to face Fields (Jets) and could get a crack at Tennessee rookie Cam Ward, but the schedule doesn’t look to be filled with sack merchants nor does Cleveland look like a team that will play from ahead much in 2025.
Let’s go with the under 14.25 sacks for Garrett.
NFL Pick: Myles Garrett Under 14.25 Sacks (-150) at Bovada
2025 Browns Regular Season Wins
- Over/Under 4.5 Wins
The 2025 Browns have a win total of 4.5 wins at Bovada with the following odds:
- Over 4.5 wins (-180)
- Under 4.5 wins (+135)
The Browns were only 3-14 last year but they actually managed a couple of stellar upset wins against the Ravens and Steelers. Both of those games saw Jameis Winston slinging the ball, but we know Joe Flacco has that ability too, especially with what he did in Kevin Stefanski’s offense in 2023.
It’s not like the Browns lack any talent as they have Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, tight end David Njoku, and they’ll try to get something out of journeyman Diontae Johnson. They still have a few quality offensive linemen too in Joel Bitonio and Jack Conklin.
But even if we assume Flacco starts the season, the Browns have to start 2025 with the following teams:
- Bengals (need a fast start to avoid pitfalls of the last 2 years)
- At Ravens (tough team)
- Packers (solid team on both sides of the ball)
- At Lions (No. 1 seed last year)
Even with some Flacco magic, that’s a very hard start to the season as the Browns could be looking at another 1-3 or 0-4 start. It’s not until you get to a London game with the Vikings in Week 5 that you think they can get one, and that’s predicated on believing J.J. McCarthy’s inexperience will hold that team back.
You like to think the Browns can win at least 1 AFC North game after stealing a couple last year. You like to think they can beat either the Patriots or Dolphins as one will expose themselves as a fake contender from the AFC East. Maybe a win on the road against the Jets or Raiders shortly after the bye.
The Titans at home in Week 14 is one of the most likely Cleveland wins of the season, but who will even be the quarterback at that point? Flacco hasn’t started double-digit games in almost a decade.
If the Browns go to a backup like rookie Shedeur Sanders late in the season, good luck to him with this closing schedule:
- Week 15 at Chicago – Tough place to play in the elements and Ben Johnson should have them doing much better this year.
- Week 16 vs. Buffalo – Elite team and annual contender.
- Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh – Always a tough matchup for the Browns.
- Week 18 at Cincinnati – Better shot at beating them in Week 1 at home (with Flacco) than Week 18 on the road (with a rookie QB).
There’s understandably some respect for Stefanski as a 2-time Coach of the Year winner, but this much juice on over 4.5 wins for a team that’s still very flawed and facing a tough schedule is a tough sell for me.
Let’s go with the value and take the under 4.5 wins for the Browns for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2025 Browns Under 4.5 Wins (+135) at Bovada
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2025 Browns – Exact AFC North Position
Finally, you can bet on Cleveland’s exact division finish in the AFC North in 2025 with the current odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review):
- 1st (+2500)
- 2nd (+900)
- 3rd (+300)
- 4th (-250)
Call it cliché or chalk, but the Browns finishing last is one of the safest bets of any team finishing last in its division in 2025.
The Ravens have finished under 8 wins in just 1-of-17 seasons for coach John Harbaugh, and that was back in 2015 when Joe Flacco tore his ACL (5-11 record). That’s still an elite team there with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the offense. Things would have to take a catastrophic turn for them to finish last here.
The Bengals are favored to win over 9.5 games with people hyping them for a return to the playoffs after finishing No. 8 in the conference last year. But even if the Bengals falter again, they should still score enough points to win 8-or-9 games and be right in that playoff contention with Joe Burrow and company. You also have a coach (Zac Taylor) playing for his job this year, so there’s an urgency there to get it done this year.
The Steelers should also have some urgency with Aaron Rodgers basically announcing this is his final NFL season, so they may only get one shot at this relationship. They also have to pay T.J. Watt and just paid a lot for DK Metcalf, and we know Mike Tomlin’s never had a losing season even if the oddsmakers think that 8-9 season could come this year to end a 21-year streak in Pittsburgh.
But the Steelers at least know who their quarterback is – albeit they didn’t have confirmation until June. But we’ll take a 42-year-old Rodgers over a 40-year-old Flacco or any other player the Browns want to throw out there this year.
The Shedeur Sanders saga covered up the fact that the Browns still have a lot of holes after paying Garrett a record amount for a defensive player. This is a flawed team that’s not going to win many games.
It’s a last-place team again.
NFL Pick: 2025 Browns Exact Division Position – 4th (-250) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
