NFL Bengals Player Props: Will Bengals Make the Playoffs?
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Scott Kacsmar
- June 24, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Joe Burrow Over 4200.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Cincinnati Bengals once again had a slow start (1-4) that was ultimately their undoing as they missed the playoffs for the 2nd season in a row despite a 5-game winning streak to finish 9-8—falling short of expectations and where the NFL betting odds had them projected.
It’s a baffling record for a team where Joe Burrow had his best individual season, Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving triple crown, and Trey Hendrickson led the NFL with 17.5 sacks. The schedule wasn’t even that difficult as the Bengals had the lowest strength of victory (.314) among any team with a winning record in the last 7 seasons.
The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator, but they didn’t make wholesale changes to their defensive talent, and they still are dealing with an upset Hendrickson over his contract situation as well as a contract dispute with outspoken 1st-round rookie Shemar Stewart.
It seems the Bengals only want to pay you if you play wide receiver after they made Chase and Tee Higgins the most expensive duo in NFL history at $69 million annually. We’ll see if that can lead to a return to the playoffs as this has to be coach Zac Taylor’s job on the line if the team falls short again.
Joe Burrow – Over/Under 4200.5 Passing Yards
Joe Burrow is the favorite (+550 at BetOnline) to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2025. He just did it with 4,918 yards in 2024, a career high, but Drew Brees (2011-12, 2014-16) is the only quarterback in the salary cap era since 1994 to lead the league in this stat in consecutive seasons.
The Bengals are likely going to play with a goal to not have Burrow do that again, as it likely means they are playing from behind too often. However, they are not going to change their offensive style by any means, and you can expect Burrow to continue having one of the highest passing attempts in the game.
His line is just 4200.5 yards, a number he has cleared by 275-plus yards in all 3 seasons where he avoided serious injury. While injury may be a concern with him that you wouldn’t have as strongly with other quarterbacks, there’s no reason to think he’s putting himself at any more risk than usual this season. He generally gets rid of the ball fast and doesn’t scramble that often.
With the talent the Bengals have in that receiving duo and the fact that their defense is still likely going to put them in games where they need to keep throwing and scoring, Burrow should be in line for well more than 4,200 yards in a 17-game season. He’s just not the best pick this year to have the most passing yards in the NFL.
NFL Pick: Joe Burrow Over 4200.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Tee Higgins – Over/Under 975.5 Receiving Yards
With a new contract extension that is set to pay him just south of $30 million per season, Tee Higgins is officially the highest-paid WR2 in NFL history. Of course, he’d be a WR1 on a lot of teams in the NFL, but let’s slow down the talk that it’d be most teams.
After all, Higgins has yet to have 1,100 yards in any of his 5 seasons with the Bengals. He would have got there in 2021 (1,091 yards in 14 games) if he didn’t miss 3 full games, and the same can be said last year when he missed 5 games and finished with 911 yards (but a career-high 10 touchdown catches).
That means Higgins has 3 seasons where he’s missed 3-to-5 games, which makes him a bigger liability than most receivers to bet the over on a season prop for. However, let’s play the odds that he won’t miss 5 games for the 3rd season in a row, and the Bengals aren’t going to pay all this money for a WR2 only to see him finish under 1,000 yards again.
Higgins has great hands and runs very good routes, making him a strong complement to the big plays and YAC that Ja’Marr Chase produces. He could be in store for his finest season yet unless this newfound wealth has him studying less film during the week. But we’ll take the over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Tee Higgins Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Ja’Marr Chase – Over/Under 10.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Ja’Marr Chase had his best season in 2024 as he won the receiving triple crown, leading the NFL in catches (127), receiving yards (1,708), and his receiving touchdowns (17) were a career high, surpassing the 13 he had as a 2021 rookie.
But he had 9 touchdown catches in 2022 and 7 the following year. Last year, Chase had the offense’s 4 longest touchdowns of the season as he terrorized a Baltimore defense that should be better this year. Chase also had 5 games where he scored multiple touchdowns while also going scoreless in 6 other games, so it was a bit feast or famine from a touchdown perspective.
The triple crown is a career performance type of season, and it’s easy to pick regression to the mean after such a season. Players like Steve Smith (2005 Panthers) and Cooper Kupp (2021 Rams) didn’t come close to repeating their triple crown success the following year.
We already have high expectations for Tee Higgins putting in a career year, so this feels like a good spot to take the under and bet on Chase not coming close to what he did in the touchdown department last year.
NFL Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Under 10.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
2025 Bengals Regular Season Wins
- Over/Under 8.5 Wins
The 2025 Bengals have a win total of 9.5 wins, but the odds vary greatly right now at 2 of the top-rated sportsbooks:
- Bengals over 9.5 wins (-165) at Bovada
- Bengals over 9.5 wins (-125) at BetOnline
- Bengals under 9.5 wins (+125) at Bovada
- Bengals under 9.5 wins (-105) at BetOnline
You normally don’t see this big of a difference, but Bovada really likes the Bengals to go over. It makes sense from the perspective that they should be able to start stronger as they know how much that hurt them in past years.
Fortunately, the early schedule is favorable to allow this team to gain confidence and start ripping off wins:
- Week 1 at Browns: Barring a Joe Flacco 400-yard masterpiece, the Browns look pretty unsure of what they’re doing with the quarterback position after a 3-win season.
- Week vs. Jaguars: Home game against a team with a rookie coach (Liam Coen) also coming off a bad year.
- Week 3 at Vikings: Young quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a wild card this season, though Burrow must be sharp against that defense.
- Week 4 at Broncos: Tough game on a Monday night, but the Bengals beating Denver was their best win in 2024 as they exposed that secondary for being a paper tiger.
If they can come out of that with a 3-1 start or better (no worse than 2-2), then they’ll be well ahead of how they’ve started the last few seasons. Then you have to think they can get at least a game on the Steelers, who they beat in Pittsburgh to end last season. The Bengals could have easily won both Baltimore games last year, so getting them at home in December should be a big AFC North game.
The Bengals also get to host teams with young quarterbacks like the Patriots (Drake Maye) and Bears (Caleb Williams). Granted, losing 16-10 at home to the Patriots in Week 1 last year basically killed their playoff chances, but they should be well prepared for a Week 12 game this time.
It’s not the toughest schedule as they don’t have to play the Chiefs, they get Detroit at home instead of in the dome, and they’ve had success in Buffalo (Week 14) before.
However, this is not a team that should go well above 10 wins this year due to the lack of key additions on that defense. But the Bengals winning at least an extra game over last season feels like one of the more logical NFL picks this year, so take the best odds you can find for the over.
NFL Pick: 2025 Bengals Over 9.5 Wins (-125) at BetOnline
2025 Bengals – Do They Make the Playoffs?
We’re not going to pick the Bengals to win the AFC North (+225 at BetOnline), because Baltimore is still the better team on both sides of the ball. People tend to forget the Ravens were leading the division in December in 2021 and 2022 when Lamar Jackson was injured and never played again those seasons, allowing the Bengals to swoop in and win both division titles.
When Jackson stays healthy, the Bengals don’t win the AFC North. That should continue this year. However, when it comes to making the playoffs with a 10-7 record or better, that would make sense for this team when you consider the teams who could be missing the playoffs.
Pittsburgh taking a step back with an old Aaron Rodgers, one good wide receiver (D.K. Metcalf), and an aging veteran core on defense makes a lot of sense this year. The Chargers and Broncos aren’t both safe again to make it either from the AFC West, so there should be open slots this year.
We’ll pick the Bengals to fill out a wild card berth in 2025, but if they don’t get there, then Zac Taylor has to go as head coach. They’re relying heavily on this passing offense and its highly paid trio at quarterback and wide receiver to get the job done. It’s a bold strategy but it should be worth at least a 10-win playoff season in 2025.
If not, then make major changes next year.
NFL Pick: 2025 Bengals to Make the Playoffs – Yes (-145) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
