PGA John Deere Classic Best Bets for July 3: Value in McCarthy & Thor
-
Craig Edwards
- July 1, 2025
Top Golf Pick: Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 10 (+300) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
At BMR, this week’s PGA Tour event is the John Deere Classic, and our golf expert @EdwardsTips_ brings readers his best bets for you to play at the top-rated sportsbooks.
John Deere Classic
July 03 – July 06, 2025 – 08:00 AM EDT at TPC Deere Run
Course Notes
- Par 71, 7289 yards
- Designer – D. A. Weibring
- Greens in regulation and strong approach play are required to ensure maximum birdie chances for the player.
Recent John Deere Classic Champions
Can Denny Break His Duck?
If Denny McCarthy is ever going to break his PGA Tour duck, this week in Illinois might be his best chance.
The 32-year-old from Maryland has everything trending in his favor. He’s coming off a solid 12th-place finish at the Travelers and boasts some of the best course form in the field at TPC Deere Run.
This year, McCarthy is aiming for a fourth consecutive top-10 finish, and at (+300), that’s a solid value bet. The price is effectively derived from an outright line of around +3000. In fact, my own modeling had McCarthy closer to (+2000) to win outright — a 50% markdown compared to the current market, suggesting real value.
Yes, McCarthy may be one of the best players yet to win on the PGA Tour, but his consistency is undeniable — especially when it comes to top-10 finishes. That makes the prop price extremely attractive. So, the plan is simple: lock in the top-10 prop and use that to freeroll an outright ticket at (+2800) with the same book. After all, the John Deere Classic is traditionally a low-scoring affair — and no one has been better with the flatstick over the past few years than Denny McCarthy.
Denny McCarthy’s Picks
- Denny McCarthy to Win Outright (+2800) at BetOnline
- Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 10 (+300) at BetOnline
Will Michael Thor Be In the Winner’s Circle?
We’ve already noted that Denny McCarthy is among the best players yet to win on the PGA Tour — but the same could be said for Michael Thorbjornsen, despite this being only his second season as a professional.
Bypassing the Korn Ferry Tour through the PGA Tour’s advanced Collegiate program, Thorbjornsen has long been regarded as one of the game’s top young talents. He was runner-up at the 2022 Travelers Championship while still an amateur — a result that showcased his immense potential.
Now in his second year as a pro, the 23-year-old Stanford graduate continues to impress. His reputation alone makes it surprising that he’s yet to secure his first win, and last week’s fourth-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic further underlined his rising star status.
Looking ahead to this week’s John Deere Classic, Thorbjornsen arrives with strong course credentials. He finished runner-up to Davis Thompson here last year and posted a respectable 17th on debut the year before. He’s proven he can go low — and with a hot putter (ranking 9th in strokes gained putting last week), he’s primed to contend again in what is typically a birdie-fest.
Michael Thorbjornsen is our second pick this week at BMR, and top-rated sportsbook Bovada is offering a generous (+3300) on the former world No. 2 amateur to capture his maiden PGA Tour title at TPC Deere Run.
Michael Thorbjornsen’s Picks
- Michael Thorbjornsen to Win Outright (+3300) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
- Michael Thorbjornsen to Finish Top 10 (+350) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
