Was last year’s start for Graham Mertz a fluke or can he be the real deal? We’ll find out in Week 1’s game between Wisconsin and Penn State. Rise and shine! We’ve got a 12:0O PM EDT start time between two top 25 ranked teams in the Big Ten. Wisconsin will feature Graham Mertz who started the season extremely strong for the Badgers last season until he went down with COVID. Let’s see the NCAAF odds.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, September 04, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Camp Randall Stadium
Once Mertz came back from his bout with COVID, things just weren’t the same. Mertz threw for 1,238 yards on 193 attempts last season, completing 61.1 percent of his passes for just 6.4 yards per play. Mertz threw for nine touchdowns and five interceptions and took 12 sacks on the season. I’m sure Mertz has developed and can become a huge asset to this team for a couple more years.
However, remember the Jonathan Taylor’s of the program? I do and this Wisconsin team hasn’t really proved they can run the ball. Last season, Wisconsin ran for 200 yards just once which is unheard of for this Badgers offense. On the other hand, Wisconsin won’t be looking at Micah Parsons on the other side of the ball.
The first round selection is now in the NFL after being a fierce leader and competitor for Penn State at linebacker. Penn State is rebuilding their defense right now so there are questions behind how the Nittany Lions will fare on defense with young players and unfamiliar faces. Mertz has his receivers back but so does Penn State with their secondary.
Penn State lost their front seven but the secondary is still the veteran group of the Penn State defense. When it comes to Wisconsin’s defense, you’re going to see one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. They’ll have one of the better linebacking groups in all of college football and have a secondary that can make a ton of plays on any given night. Last season, Penn State struggled a bit with pass protection.
If last year is any indication of this year, Wisconsin could get to Sean Clifford. Clifford is a red-shirt senior with tons of experience and leadership. He threw for 1,883 yards last season along with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His completion percentage has never been high and he’s been sacked 44 times in his last two seasons. He had 319 attempts passing two seasons ago and was sacked 24 times. Last year, he was sacked 22 times in fewer snaps.
Prediction
Wisconsin should have the better defense and if they can figure out their running game, the offense will explode behind Mertz who returns a lot of his receivers. The offensive line of Wisconsin should be able to keep Mertz clean in the pocket going against a Penn State defense that is going to be weak up front in Big Ten standards.
The Penn State offense could put in work but it all rests on the offensive line and if they can protect Clifford. They didn’t last season so what makes you think they’ll protect him this season? For my NCAAF picks, I’ll ride Wisconsin against the spread in this one, at home.
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin -5.5 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
