Non-Power Conference Teams That Could Make the 2025 CFP
-
Doug Upstone
- July 17, 2025
With one year of a 12-team playoff in the books, the powers that be, the Big 12 and SEC, had to alter the rules to ensure their teams had a better chance to win than last year.
Boise State was the lone non-Power 4 conference entrant, and they ended up as the #3 overall seed to the dismay of the “Power Brokers”, earning an automatic bid to the quarterfinals.
With the new seeding process, one can rest assured that the only path to a bye by a non-Power 4 conference is essentially an undefeated season, dominating its competition with a scoring margin difference of 25 or more points.
So, who is the one non-Power Conference team that can snag one of the dozen coveted spots for this year’s college football playoffs?
And before we jump in, check out our YouTube channel for more college football betting content from Donnie RightSide, including some sleeper picks that might interest you.
Odds for Non-Power Teams to Make Playoffs
BetOnline offers odds to reach the College Football Playoffs. Let’s take a look.
| Team | Odds | CFP Overall Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | +195 | #12 |
| Tulane | +750 | #34 |
| Memphis | +850 | #36 |
| Liberty | +1100 | #40 |
| James Madison | +1200 | #42 |
| Toledo | +1800 | #52 |
Teams Most Likely Not Going to Qualify
Toledo will need to win at Kentucky and at Washington State to have a realistic chance. One is possible, but it wouldn’t seem to be both. The Rockets won’t receive many votes for knocking off Morgan State or Western Kentucky at home while still needing to go undefeated in the MAC.
Liberty and James Madison are in the same boat and, ironically, they are playing what amounts to an elimination game against each other on Sept. 20 at the home of the Flames. Both have a chance to go unbeaten in conference action, but James Madison also has to travel to Louisville 15 days prior.
One outfit could move up at 12-0, but would need the American and Mountain West champs to have two to three losses to have a chance.
Teams With a Realistic Chance to Make the Playoffs
Boise State got in last year with a loss, falling at Oregon 37-34, which mattered to the selection committee.
The Broncos will still look to run the ball, but without Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, the production and possibly the scoring will be down a degree in 2025. More of the lead will fall to quarterback Maddux Madsen, who threw for over 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only six picks last season.
Boise State will need a similar game to Oregon when they travel to South Bend. This program has always traveled to tough locales, held its own, or pulled off upsets. The Broncos will have to improve on a #60 in defense nationally, and that appears possible. Boise State will also have to knock off UNLV, which has the same odds as Toledo.
Can the AAC Step Up?
From the American Athletic Conference, only one squad will have a chance, and Tulane and Memphis are nearly tied. If Boise State or UNLV fails to win enough, the AAC has the next strongest conference to supply a champion.
Tulane and Memphis are rated almost even, and they will face off on Nov. 7 at Memphis to possibly decide a championship or be the first of two skirmishes this season.
However, sportsbooks like BetOnline and well-regarded college football publications are each picking a different champion. Here is each Top 3 in the AAC.
- Lindy’s: 1. Navy 2. Tulane 3. Memphis
- Phil Steele: 1. Memphis 2. UTSA 3. Tulane
- Athlon: 1. Tulane 2. Navy 3. South Florida
Odds Show a Crowded Field
Next, we discovered no conference has a narrower gap among its Top 6 teams based on the odds to crown a champion (+250 to +650, at time of article posted) than the American. This suggests a tight race, and it’s very likely that the two combatants playing for the title would have two conference losses, which would essentially eliminate them.
Boise State Is a Good Bet
In conclusion, it appears Boise State is the top contender, possibly the AAC winner, if one club steps forward with a 12-1 record and the winner of the James Madison vs. Liberty conflict.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
