If I were a used car salesman, I would declare last week to be an unmitigated success, having gone 4-0! That’s right, undefeated I was. Unfortunately, the devil is in the details, and although all my square sides won outright, only one of four covered the number.
Let’s delve into the sordid details, shall we? The Broncos (-7) eked past the Jets, 13-11, which cost us three units, the Chargers (-3 ½) snuck by the Dolphins, 29-27, which cost us another three units, and the Packers (-14) defeated the Bengals, 27-18, which tossed two units away.
The only saving grace was that the Rams (-7 ½) easily covered the number in a 17-3 win over the Ravens, which was good for only two units. We went 1-3 ATS, dropped 6.97 units, and we are now sitting in over 19 units of red ink. This week’s best NFL picks from some other BMR cappers can also be found in case you’re looking for a fresh perspective.
Now it’s time for my NFL picks Week 7. Let’s get “Back in Black,” so sayeth Angus.
- Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 7-12 ATS (-19.10 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 7 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks are taking into consideration that this league is built on parity and that the RedZone only exists because it seems like there are a number of games hanging in the balance in the last five minutes. That would lead one to the logical conclusion that underdogs might be the way to go, right?
Conversely, I have been the ultimate square this season, laying the lumber on big favorites like I’m reading Monday morning’s newspapers. It has cost me dearly thus far, so I think a change in perspective is desperately needed…but I’m still backing two favorites this week!
Below are our NFL picks for Week 7.
- Browns -2 ½ (-110)
- Patriots -7 (-108)
- Falcons +2 ½ (-110)
Swinger’s NFL Best Bets
Dolphins vs. Browns (-2 ½)
Any team that loses to the 2025 Carolina Panthers is heinous. Carolina has only one win this season, and guess who they beat? Yup, the Miami Dolphins, that’s who, and as bad as the Browns may be, they look like the Legion of Boom by comparison.
Miami’s offense is in the bottom third of passing, rushing, and total yards, but its defense is even worse, if that’s possible. The Fish are dead last in rushing yards allowed, surrendering over 168 yards per game, and are ranked 29th in points allowed (29.0 PPGA).
Needless to say, make sure you include Cleveland’s rookie tailback, Quinshon Judkins, on your FFL rosters. The man is a beast, and he will roam free against the Dolphins.
But I ask you, how is Miami going to score? Tua’s offensive line is the definition of offensive. The Browns’ defense, led by Myles Garrett, is going to feast as they are ranked No. 7 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. It’s strange to be enamored with a 1-5 team, but when they’re facing a team like the Dolphins, it’s time to get down on it.
Expert Pick: Cleveland Browns -2 ½ (-110) for 4 units at BetAnything
Patriots vs. Tennessee (+7)
Oh boy, here I go again. I’m laying a touchdown with the suddenly resurgent New England Patriots, but they are playing a team in the Titans that is vying with the Dolphins as the league’s laughingstock. I don’t normally bet on the Patriots, as my objectivity is clouded by being from the Boston area, but this looks like a prime spot to back Drake Maye and the boys.
Speaking of Drake Maye, the young gunslinger will be able to have a cup of coffee in the pocket before the lackluster Titans penetrate his much-improved offensive line. And although the Pats don’t boast a terrific rushing attack, Tennessee is 25th against the run. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson should have an easy time of it, although I would much rather the latter get the lion’s share of the reps than the former.
If you’re not convinced to back the Pats quite yet, just remember that rookie QB Cam Ward has not had a terrific year and must now acclimate to a brand-new head coach after Brian Callahan was fired. And if that isn’t enough, consider that his top two targets, Calvin Ridley (hamstring) and Van Jefferson (ankle), are questionable and may not suit up. But even if they do, will they be hobbled by their respective injuries?
Lastly, this will be a golden opportunity for the Pats’ head coach, Mike Vrabel, to stick it to the team that fired him two seasons ago. Lay it, like it, and cash it.
Expert Pick: New England Patriots -7 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
Falcons vs. 49ers (-2 ½)
This is the first underdog I’ve taken in three weeks, which tells you just how square my plays have been this season. I normally try my best to fade the public, but I’ve been following the sheeple instead of being a sharp and my bankroll has gotten shredded because of it.
However, the streak is broken this week as the Falcons are the right side of this game and will win this one outright. Need I remind you that the Falcons rank No. 1 against the pass, allowing just 139.4 passing yards per game? Atlanta is also ranked 7th on defense, permitting just 20 points per game.
Conversely, the Niners have been beaten to a pulp. Defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is done for the year, and Fred Warner is also sidelined for the year after suffering a fractured ankle in San Francisco’s 30-19 loss to the Bucs. Moreover, the offensive triumvirate of Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle is all in doubt for this game. Even wideout Jauan Jennings is questionable.
Atlanta’s electric tailback, Bijan Robinson, will keep the 49ers’ defense honest and will allow more time for Michael Penix Jr. in the pocket. Drake London is a superior weapon, and he will pad his stats against this injury-ravaged San Francisco crew.
If I have one reservation about betting on the Falcons, it’s my trepidation about them beating the Bills on national TV. This could be a letdown game for them, and they are on the road. Yet, that’s not enough to scare me off them, but it did make me dial down a few units from my 5-unit max wager.
Expert Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2 ½ (-110) for 3 units at Bookmaker
The Woodman’s Picks (5-1 ATS)
As I always say, even a train stops. And so did the Woodman’s glorious ATS winning streak, which ended abruptly last week when he advised his acolytes to bet the proverbial farm on the Lions. As we all know, the Cats fell to the Chiefs, 30-17, and failed to cover the number as 2 ½ point road dogs.
Despite his recent setback, our man remains bloodied but unbowed and has vowed to get back on the winning track with the upstart Indianapolis Colts, currently getting 1 ½ points at all of the offshore sportsbooks except Bookmaker, where we’re getting +2 as of this midweek writing.
The Woodman’s Week 5 NFL Pick: Colts +2 (-112) at Bookmaker
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The NFL picks Week 7 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Browns, Patriots, and Falcons may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks like BetAnything, Heritage Sports, and Bookmaker so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
