NFL Pick: Texans -1½ (-108) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) – For 3 units
Week 1 is in the books and now it’s time to delve into Week 2 as Swinger reveals his sharpest three NFL predictions on the board and recaps last week’s action. Ready, set, cover!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 1-2 ATS (-4.06 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 1 Recap
I decided to watch the Steelers game because it was my biggest play of the day. I flippantly tossed three units on the boys from Steel Town and even bought the pricey hook to make it Steelers +3 (-130) because I clearly have no respect for money.
Well, it was obvious from jump street that San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is not a flash-in-the-pan as I had speculated and Pittsburgh is not ready for primetime. By the time the first quarter ended, I switched to Red Zone, keeping tabs on the Titans.
At least my boys from Nashville kept it close throughout and covered the 3 ½ point impost in a 16-15 loss to the Saints. Two units to the good on that wager.
Lastly, either the Chargers defense is porous or the Dolphins offense is a juggernaut. The truth likely falls somewhere in the middle as it often does but I expected the Bolts would contain Tua at least enough to allow Justin Herbert to outgun him and cover the number. Well, they almost did right up until they didn’t. Tua to Tyreek was unstoppable and the Fish scored a 36-34 victory while we dropped two units.
Overall, a painfully disappointing way to kick off the season but we shall recoup and get on the winning track. Stay with me, don’t despair, we’ve got this.
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Key Stats
- The Bears No. 1 receiver, D.J. Moore, had 186 yards and two touchdowns in his two games against the Bucs last season.
- Bears’ quarterback Justin Fields was 9-of-11 for 96 yards and a touchdown when faced with the blitz last week.
- The Bucs gained just 242 total yards in their 20-17 win over the Vikings.
Analysis
Don’t trust everything you see – even salt looks like sugar. And that’s the cautionary tale I have for you this week. The teams that looked horrendous are not as bad as they appeared while the teams that looked unstoppable (looking at you, Cowboys) are likely not a juggernaut.
Justin Fields handles the blitz well and the Bucs love to blitz. That will be a boon for the Chicago offense and they will get well in a hurry after looking rather anemic against the Packers. Meanwhile, the Bucs were lucky that they beat the Vikings after Cousins connected on 33-of-44 for 344 yards and two touchdowns.
The advanced line on this game was Chicago -1 but because their defense failed to show last week, making Jordan Love look like Aaron Rodgers, and the fact that the hapless Bucs got a win no one expected, the hype train is in overdrive and the sheeple are betting Tampa Bay. God bless them as this line flip-flopped to where Tampa was as high as 3 but sanity prevailed and it’s down to 2 ½.
Let’s take advantage of the bandwagon jumpers, buy the hook, and back the Bears at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Bears +3 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) – For 3 units
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
Key Stats
- The Bills have won and covered in their last two meetings with the Raiders.
- Bills receiver Stefon Diggs had 10 catches for 102 yards and one touchdown last week.
- The Raiders gained just 61 yards against the Broncos last week.
Analysis
I love reading opinions after the games are played. I especially delight in the “revelations” that spring forth from the national guys who never saw a hot take they couldn’t ignore. The latest example of this septic-spewing nonsense is that the Bills might be okay in this game if Josh Allen would just get out of his own way.
Really? He’s one of the best in the league and happened to have a miserable season opener with one touchdown and three interceptions against one of the very best defenses in the NFL, the New York bleepin’ Jets.
Well, you won’t have to worry about Josh getting out of his own way on Sunday afternoon when the Bills Mafia greet him like a conquering hero despite Buffalo’s 22-16 overtime loss to New York. Josh Allen will devour this sad sack Raiders defense that has more holes than my daughter’s designer blue jeans.
Bills’ Strong Favoritism
This line opened at Bills -10½ but that number plummeted to 8½ because the public finally found an underdog they can believe in after losing their money on the Bills last week. What better way to get your money back than to fade the team that disappointed you? Idiots.
I think this is an easy double-digit win for the Bills and I’m diggin’ the line we’re getting.
NFL Pick: Bills -8½ (-110) at Bovada – For 3 units
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Key Stats
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI).
- The Houston Texans have scored first in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.85 Units / 80% ROI).
- Texans TEs have averaged 6.6 yards after the catch since Week 12 of the 2022 Season – tied for third-best in the NFL.
Analysis
Anthony Richardson will not last in this league if he keeps using that big body like a power back. Trevor Lawrence told him pretty much the same at midfield when they shook hands. Richardson got rattled at the tail end of the game in the Colts’ 31-21 loss to the Jags.
Nevertheless, Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft, will likely suit up in this one but he has a bruised right knee and that must be considered a factor.
Meanwhile, the second overall pick in that draft, CJ Stroud, will be on the other side of the field and he had a moderately successful debut despite being on the losing end of a 25-9 decision to the Ravens.
Texans’ Dominant Defense and Strategy
The Texans’ defense is very good and will devour a relatively porous offense like Indianapolis. I expect Richardson to try to turn the corner under pressure because that’s what he does despite his coaching staff telling him to get down or get out… of bounds that is.
The Colts pass rush won’t have a lot of success against the Texans and I expect CJ Stroud to make them pay because of it. Let’s grab the small number with Houston at the offshore sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Texans -1½ (-108) at Bovada– For 3 units
The Woodman’s Corner (1-0 ATS)
The Woodman had a no-sweat bet with the Packers last week and faded the public, many of whom declared the Bears were back and Justin Fields would lead the charge. My man said, nay nay, Love is the way, and sure enough, Jordan Love delivered three TD passes en route to an effortless 38-20 win over da Bears.
This week our boy is on the Commanders getting north of a field goal at Mile High. Although this isn’t one of my plays, I’m inclined to agree. What did the Broncos do last week in their 17-16 loss to Vegas that would make them a field goal over the Little Sisters of the Poor let alone another NFL team?
Woodman says, “Bet the farm on Washington!”
Woodman’s Pick: Commanders +3½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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