NFL Pick: George Pickens Over 3.5 Receptions (+115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 10 schedule has a few highlight games with Browns-Ravens and Lions-Chargers. We are also looking at the Steelers trying to get George Pickens involved against Green Bay, the Vikings enjoying Joshua Dobbs’ mobility, and if the Bengals can force C.J. Stroud into a rookie mistake.
We have a handful of our favorite player props for Week 10, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
Unless you suspect Deshaun Watson will get injured in this game, this feels like one of the best lines to take advantage of in Week 10. Watson has played in 5 games, and he threw over 28.5 passes in 4-of-5 games. The only time he didn’t was when he left the Indianapolis game early with an injury.
Some other reasons to like this over:
- Watson has thrown over 28.5 passes in 7-of-11 starts for the Browns since 2022 (7-of-10 when he finishes the game).
- Watson even threw 30 passes last week in a bad game script with the Browns winning easily, 27-0, over the Cardinals.
- Watson threw 28 passes in a game against Baltimore last December, which was won 13-3 by Cleveland, there was snow, and he didn’t need to throw more than he did. Baltimore is much better this year and Lamar Jackson will play this time.
- Cleveland rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson started for an injured Watson in Week 4 against Baltimore and threw 36 passes in the 28-3 loss.
Maybe the line of thinking is the Ravens lead the NFL in completion percentage, and these offenses rank No. 1 and No. 2 in runs, so Watson may not have as many opportunities to air it out.
But if the Ravens are winning comfortably, he will have no choice but to throw.
The Pick
Trust the Ravens to play well enough as a 6.5-point home favorite that the Browns cannot establish a running game, and Watson will have to throw often to keep up with Jackson. Watson’s inefficiency also should help drive up his attempts, and the Ravens have the No. 1 scoring defense (not Cleveland).
NFL Pick: Deshaun Watson Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at Bovada
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers)
A Pittsburgh wide receiver exhibiting some diva qualities? Say it isn’t so. Mike Tomlin has been down this road before with Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Martavis Bryant. This will pass with George Pickens, who is just young and frustrated that he has 3 catches for 21 yards over the last 2 games.
He should be getting the ball more, but he also has to admit that his route tree is not as fully developed as Diontae Johnson’s, and Kenny Pickett has preferred throwing to Johnson for that reason.
But for the Steelers to make sure they are keeping Pickens happy, this is a good matchup where he should get over 3.5 catches at home. The Packers are allowing quarterbacks to complete over 65% of their passes this season. There have already been 8 wide receivers who are No. 1 or No. 2 receivers who have caught 5 or more balls on this Green Bay defense this year. Even Drake London (Falcons) and Courtland Sutton (Broncos) caught 6 balls each against the Packers.
Surely Pickens can get 4 balls this week.
The Pick
Pickens has gone over 3.5 catches in 5-of-8 games this season. It has just been the last 2 weeks where he has hit a slump. The Steelers showed against the Rams that they can make this work with Pickens and Johnson both getting their touches in the same game. Look for them to balance things better this week between their top 2 pass catchers.
NFL Pick: George Pickens Over 3.5 Receptions (+115) at Bovada
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Joshua Dobbs (Minnesota Vikings)
Joshua Dobbs will make his first start with the Vikings at home against New Orleans after he came off the bench last week in dramatic fashion to win the game in Atlanta.
While the Falcons were not used to what Dobbs was going to do in an offense built for Kirk Cousins, Dobbs also did not quite know what he was doing yet. He just joined the team last Tuesday, and he did not take part in any live practices with his new teammates. He had to play by instincts, and his mobility has been one of his strong points this season.
Dobbs had a season-high 66 rushing yards against the Falcons last week. He also rushed for a touchdown for the 4th time this season. The Saints have allowed some solid rushing performances to quarterbacks like Tyson Bagent (70 yards) and Trevor Lawrence (59 yards) in recent weeks.
This could be a good game for Dobbs to make use of his mobility, a dimension to the offense the Vikings lacked with Cousins, and score his 5th rushing touchdown of the season.
The Pick
Remember, the Vikings lead the NFL with 20 touchdown passes and only have 2 rushing touchdowns this season. They are not looking to hand the ball off near the goal line to Alexander Mattison. They put the ball in their quarterback’s hands, and this is why Dobbs has some real value as a touchdown scorer this week.
NFL Pick: Joshua Dobbs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+330) at Bovada
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
C.J. Stroud just had arguably the best game in NFL history by a rookie quarterback last week. Against Tampa Bay, Stroud passed for 470 yards (rookie record), 5 touchdowns, no interceptions, a 147.8 passer rating (rookie record for a game with 25 attempts), and he led the first game-winning drive of his career.
It was an impressive spectacle, and the big game helped push Stroud into No. 3 in the NFL with 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He has now thrown 14 touchdowns to 1 interception, and his 0.4% interception rate is by far the lowest in the NFL this season. The next closest quarterbacks are at 1.2%.
Not to throw cold water on this season, but Stroud just lost in Week 8 to the Panthers, that team’s only win of the season, in a 15-13 game where he only passed for 140 yards. This monster game almost came out of nowhere, and it’s not a sure sign that things will look like this from now on for Stroud.
There will be bumps in the road, and the Bengals are a good defense with a veteran coordinator (Lou Anarumo) who can disguise things to trick the rookie.
The Pick
The Bengals have 11 interceptions in 8 games, tied for the most in the league this season. They have forced multiple turnovers in 4 straight games during this 4-game winning streak. They also seem to get crucial turnovers in the big moments for their coordinator. They intercepted Josh Allen last week and they intercepted Brock Purdy twice before that. The San Francisco game should be good practice for playing this Houston offense, which is coordinated by a Kyle Shanahan assistant (Bobby Slowik).
We’ll take the plus odds and value in the Bengals intercepting the rookie. Stroud is doing great things, but he’s not so far above the rest of the league that his interception rate should be this tiny. All it takes is a well-timed pressure or a little bad luck on a tipped ball.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+135) at Bovada
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions)
While a couple of inches shorter, Amon-Ra St. Brown does have a similar playing style to Keenan Allen on the Chargers. They can both dominate the intermediate range and from the slot. They can rack up 10-catch games with the best of them. They are sneaky good in the red zone.
They will be leading their receiving corps on the field this weekend in what should be one of the more exciting games this Sunday. While the Lions love running the ball near the goal line, St. Brown has scored 9 of his last 11 touchdowns from inside the 13-yard line.
St. Brown, who has an over/under of 83.5 yards in this game, averages about 1 touchdown every 3 games, and he has not scored in either of his last two games. In a game where both teams could score into the 20s or more, he should be a top weapon of choice for Jared Goff.
The Pick
We are playing odds and matchups here. The Chargers have already allowed 9 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. In 14 games where St. Brown makes at least 8 catches, he scored a touchdown 10 times (71.4%). He has scored a touchdown in 8-of-14 games (57.1%) when he has at least 80 receiving yards.
It should be a big afternoon for St. Brown.
NFL Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at Bovada
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