NFL Regular Season Team Wins Predictions: The Always Volatile NFC
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Scott Kacsmar
- May 20, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Washington Commanders Over 9.5 Wins (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Now that the 2025 NFL schedule has been released, we can see the exact path for every team this season. From this, we might be able to infer which teams have an edge like hosting a game on a Thursday night (short week) or getting a bye week right before a difficult matchup.
We also can focus on some teams who missed the playoffs last year but may be getting a favorable start of the schedule to gain some confidence and get off to a good start.
Using the current NFL odds at BetOnline, we have found 4 of our favorite value plays for NFL win totals this season. It just so happens they are all NFC teams as that is the far more volatile conference on a year-to-year basis.
Carolina Panthers – O/U 6.5 Wins
After finishing 5-12, the Carolina Panthers have the following odds at BetOnline for their 2025 win total:
- Over 6.5 wins (-145)
- Under 6.5 wins (+115)
There are 2 main reasons to like the Panthers to improve and finish over 6.5 wins this year:
- Quarterback Bryce Young continuing his development from last season with the aid of more weapons around him in Year 2 of Dave Canales’ offense.
- The favorable schedule that features only 2 games against teams with more than 10 wins from last year.
On the first point, Young is entering a crucial 3rd season where he knows, after getting benched last season, that he has to show more this year or the team will look to permanently replace him. Young delivered some of his best games after the benching, and he pushed the Chiefs and Eagles to the brink in close games the Panthers lost. They could have won in Philadelphia if Xavier Legette didn’t drop a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.
If you can perform like that against the 2024 Chiefs and Eagles, then you should be better against the 2025 Saints and Falcons. But Young is also eyeing a better supporting cast. Not only can Legette get better and they brought Adam Thielen back, but the Panthers used their top pick on wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, a big target who can open things up for everyone. They also have a loaded backfield in Carolina, and the offensive line was passable last year.
Soft Schedule Sets the Stage
While Carolina was just coming up short in a 3-game stretch of losses to the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Eagles last year, no such stretch should exist on the 2025 schedule. In fact, the Panthers’ first 7 opponents all had a losing record last year.
That doesn’t include either game against the Saints, who are going with a rookie coach and quarterback (Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough). If you’re hunting for 7 wins for the Panthers, you have to think they have a chance to go at least 3-3 in the NFC South alone.
Then it’s a matter of winning 4 games against the likes of the Jaguars, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets and Seahawks. A legitimate breakout year from Young should easily result in a 7-10 record or better.
Of course, there’s always the chance that Young confirms his bust status, and the season is a loss. But we’re banking on the Panthers to go Over 6.5 wins for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (-145) at BetOnline
Minnesota Vikings – O/U 8.5 Wins
Following their 14-3 season, the Minnesota Vikings have the following odds at BetOnline for their 2025 win total:
- Over 8.5 wins (-160)
- Under 8.5 wins (+130)
Expectations were very low for the Vikings last year, who blew them away by going 14-3 with Sam Darnold pulling a breakout year out of nowhere. Some will say that’s the value of coach Kevin O’Connell and an elite wide receiver like Justin Jefferson. But Darnold also delivered some big game-winning drives and overcame the protection problems up front until he couldn’t in the playoffs.
Now it’s J.J. McCarthy’s turn after he needed meniscus surgery following a preseason injury in 2024. He’s one of the biggest wild cards to this season as the roster is built to win now with a good quarterback, but we just don’t know yet how McCarthy will perform. He didn’t throw the ball a lot at Michigan and O’Connell does love passing a lot.
Staring Down Regression
When you look at the schedule, the Vikings have a tough division where the Bears should be improved, and the 1st game is actually in Chicago on a Monday night where Caleb Williams should be further along in his development with new coach Ben Johnson.
The Falcons and Bengals are up next, and we know both teams look to improve greatly this year. Week 4 against Pittsburgh over in Ireland could be tough if old nemesis Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback, but we still don’t know his status. Either way, a 1-3 start wouldn’t be impossible for this team.
After the early bye, the Vikings have to play the Eagles, Chargers, Lions and Ravens in a row. That’s quite a tough stretch for what is such an inexperienced quarterback. They’ll later play the Seahawks, Packers and Commanders too in a 3-week stretch.
I like Minnesota’s talent base enough to win 7 or 8 games, but with a tough schedule and unknown at quarterback, the value here is for the team to regress and go under 8.5 wins.
NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 Wins (+130) at BetOnline
New York Giants – O/U 5.5 Wins
The New York Giants have the following odds at BetOnline for their 2025 win total:
- Over 5.5 wins (+115)
- Under 5.5 wins (-145)
Head coach Brian Daboll’s job has to be hanging by a thread. After he was the AP Coach of the Year in 2022 and won a playoff game, he’s gone 9-25 ever since, with his offense looking bad no matter which quarterback he has running it.
The good news is he’s got some cagey veterans this year with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. The team also drafted Jaxson Dart in the 1st round, but he’s unlikely to start in 2025. With Wilson, you get experience, leadership and someone who can pull out a game-winning drive.
Last year, the Giants were 0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities, so winning some of those 50/50 games this year with Russ is a good way to get over the hump in wins. Wilson is also a good fit to get the ball to Malik Nabers, and the Giants had a solid draft class last year while adding a major pass rusher (Abdul Carter) this year.
Low Ceiling
This is not a playoff team by any means, but the Giants have enough talent at the right positions to where they could finish 6-11 and go Over. The early schedule is brutal, as only a trip to New Orleans looks truly winnable in September and October.
But again, don’t discount Wilson pulling out some game-winning drives and upsets you don’t expect. Then, the Giants could always clean up later when the season is a lost cause and the schedule lightens up with the Bears, Patriots, Vikings, and Raiders.
This feels like a season where Daboll is coaching for his job, so even a 6-11 finish wouldn’t be that inspiring to keep him around in 2026. But let’s trust Wilson to make use of those weapons and the improved pass rush depth to get the job done for a 6-11 season.
NFL Pick: New York Giants Over 5.5 Wins (+115) at BetOnline
Washington Commanders – O/U 9.5 Wins
After reaching the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991, the Washington Commanders have the following odds at BetOnline for their 2025 win total:
- Over 9.5 wins (-115)
- Under 9.5 wins (+115)
This feels like a surprising line when you consider the Commanders finished 12-5 with a rookie quarterback and a below-average defense. That rookie was arguably the best rookie quarterback ever in Jayden Daniels, and he looks like the real deal after winning multiple road playoff games. They also gave him Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil in a series of trades, so the pieces around him are better.
You would have liked to see the Commanders spruce up the defense more for Dan Quinn in Year 2, but again, this team was a game away from the Super Bowl without a good defense. They also added some modest pieces in the draft and free agency that could help them finish middle of the pack this year.
So, why is the line a coin flip at 9.5 wins? Maybe there’s a concern that Washington didn’t improve the defense enough, and the team will regress after winning with 6 4th-quarter comebacks last year.
They Can Do It Again
If Daniels is the real deal, there won’t be a sophomore slump just as there wasn’t one for Dan Marino (1984), Ben Roethlisberger (2005), and Russell Wilson (2013). Those were 3 of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever and they all reached the Super Bowl in Year 2.
But maybe it’s the presence of the Eagles in the division and a tough schedule that have top-rated sportsbooks souring on this line for the Commanders:
- They’ll be on the road in Green Bay on a Thursday night in Week 2
- They’ll be in Kansas City on a Monday night in Week 8.
- They’ll have to finish the season in Philadelphia in Week 18.
However, this team has the talent to go 4-2 or better in the division, and the Commanders were the only team to beat the Eagles after September last year. The Commanders also get to host winnable games against the Raiders, Bears, Seahawks and Broncos. They host the Lions, whom they upset in the playoffs. They can beat Miami overseas and win in Minnesota against an inexperienced quarterback.
Maybe it’s not enough to overtake the NFC East from the Eagles, but keep in mind no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the Eagles did it in 2001-04. If it’s not Washington’s year, then it should still be good enough for Over 9.5 wins.
Trust Jayden Daniels, a legitimate MVP favorite.
NFL Pick: Washington Commanders Over 9.5 Wins (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
