NFL Quarterback – Touchdown Props: Trust the 2024 Draft Class in Year 2
-
Scott Kacsmar
- June 4, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Caleb Williams Over 23.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The passing touchdown numbers were high in the 2024 NFL season even with a handful of rookie quarterbacks starting by year’s end. But half of the league could have started the same quarterback in all 17 games, so that’s good health that will hopefully carry over into 2025 with fewer rookies starting as well.
The rushing touchdowns were also up last year with 511, the most ever in any non-COVID season. Maybe teams are getting more comfortable at running at the goal line again with specialized personnel and a weapon like the Tush Push in some team’s arsenal. But we’ll see if we can maybe get a few more quarterbacks to break 30 touchdown passes this season
There hasn’t been a season with more than 5 such passers since 2021 when there were 9 quarterbacks with 30 touchdown passes.
Looking at props from Bovada and other top sportsbooks, here are our favorite picks for over/under touchdown passes for the 2025 NFL season. We have a real theme here as the successful rookies from 2024 seem undervalued with their lines in Year 2.
Best NFL Futures Betting Sites
| SPORTSBOOK | TRUST SCORE | BONUS | ONLINE SINCE | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
55% Cash Bonus
|
2001
|
||
|
|
20% Cash Bonus
|
2001
|
||
|
|
$250 Free Bet
|
2001
|
||
|
|
$750 Cash Bonus
|
1994
|
||
|
|
$500 Cash Bonus
|
1985
|
||
|
|
$500 Cash Bonus
|
1983
|
Bo Nix (Broncos)
- Over/Under 24.5 Passing Touchdowns
Yes, Sean Payton can still coach offense in Denver. We got to see him with a rookie quarterback for the 1st time, and the results were very encouraging, especially down the stretch for Bo Nix in guiding the team to the playoffs.
Nix finished with 29 touchdown passes, tied for the 2nd most by a rookie in NFL history. The good news is he didn’t just get to that total because of a gross lack of rushing touchdowns by the offense. They had 12, and Nix even ran in 4 of those himself, so he contributed 33 touchdowns as a rookie (34 if you count the time he caught one against Baltimore).
Don’t Sleep on Nix
If we know anything about Sean Payton’s time in New Orleans with Drew Brees, he loves to throw the ball and have a consistent operation on that side of the ball. We also know that rookie success is usually a good predictor of career success, and Nix got better as the season wore on, throwing 21 touchdowns in the last 8 games alone.
We’re not saying you should be betting on Nix to throw 40 touchdowns in 2025, but it’s a bit surprising the under 24.5 is favored at Bovada when he cleared that already as a rookie. His experience in college seemed to pay off last year, and he should feel more comfortable in the offense this season. He also plays a schedule that challenges him to outscore the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the division, so the shootouts could be coming if Denver’s defense takes a little step back.
Take the even odds for Nix to throw at least 25 touchdowns again.
NFL Pick: Bo Nix Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100) at Bovada
Caleb Williams (Bears)
- Over/Under 23.5 Passing Touchdowns
Are we really getting +125 odds for Caleb Williams going over 23.5 passing touchdowns this year? Sign us up. The No. 1 overall pick already threw 20 as a rookie, and that was on a team with terrible coaching that didn’t even practice hurry-up situations and clock management.
Williams has also been quoted as saying no one taught him how to watch film properly. These are things new coach Ben Johnson should help fix as Johnson comes over from Detroit where he did great things with Jared Goff and that offense. The Bears also upgraded the offensive line with some veteran starters, so he shouldn’t be running for his life this year and can settle things down.
The weapons are still very good too. They have Rome Odunze going into his 2nd year, so he could be better to go along with D.J. Moore, who is always consistent. They gave Cole Kmet another tight end to pair with in Colston Loveland, a surprise 1st-round pick, but also the potential to be the Sam LaPorta in this offense if Johnson tries to recreate his magic from the Lions.
Can Caleb Cook in Chicago?
Williams is a polarizing prospect and rubs some people the wrong way, but there were definitely bright moments in his rookie season. He probably should have won that game against Detroit on Thanksgiving if not for his coach freezing up in the final minute with the worst clock management we’ve ever seen.
Johnson has been saying all the right things this offseason and seems to be the next great young coach in the NFL if he can make this work in Chicago, a team not known for passing success for the last 70 years (no hyperbole). But Williams fell to them in the draft and it’s up to Johnson to make this pick really work. Only an extra 4 touchdowns over his rookie year feels like a no-brainer over for Williams in 2025.
NFL Pick: Caleb Williams Over 23.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125) at Bovada
Jayden Daniels (Commanders)
- Over/Under 23.5 Passing Touchdowns
Again, I can’t believe the line is set at 23.5 passing touchdowns for Jayden Daniels, who just had the greatest rookie quarterback season in NFL history. This is someone who easily has the potential to throw 30 or more this year as his long drive engineering was excellent last year, but sometimes they bogged down in the red zone and he has room for improvement there. More touchdowns, fewer field goals.
But Daniels had this team a game short of the Super Bowl, and they seemingly upgraded the team around him. He has Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, and they gave him Deebo Samuel from the 49ers, who is a YAC legend and can turn a short throw into a 40-yard touchdown when he’s playing at the best of his abilities.
Daniels also elevated his cast last year. He got Dyami Brown paid in free agency with a great playoff run. He got Zach Ertz some of his best efficiency numbers at age 34. He got a career year out of Terry McLaurin. Daniels just makes the players around him better, and he does it at a high level for a quarterback who is only just a year into his NFL career.
Daniels is a legitimate MVP candidate, if not the favorite this year if you’re looking for the next big thing in the NFL to challenge the Chiefs and Eagles. Give me almost any over you can offer on Daniels in 2025.
NFL Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 23.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
- Over/Under 21.5 Passing Touchdowns
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been everything you wanted in a No. 1 overall pick in 4 seasons in Jacksonville, but he also hasn’t been bad enough that you’re talking about replacing him either. However, 2025 is a huge season as he needs to show he can stay healthy and improve under new coach Liam Coen.
Forget Coen’s goofy “Duval!” press conference when they introduced him as head coach. The guy is a Sean McVay disciple and runs a great offensive system that is friendly to quarterbacks and receivers. He just helped Baker Mayfield lead one of the best offenses in the NFL in Tampa Bay as the offensive coordinator there, and he should do wonders for the Jaguars and Lawrence in a winnable division.
Also, Lawrence has the best weapons of his career this season. Granted, he lost some real security blankets in slot receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram. However, Brian Thomas Jr. looked like a stud in Year 1, and they drafted Travis Hunter after an aggressive trade up in the 2025 draft.
With New Weapons and a New Coach
No one knows for sure what the plan is for Hunter in terms of balancing wide receiver and cornerback snaps. His goal is to do both. But he was the top-ranked wideout in this class and can make big plays down the field. He’s a solid complement to Thomas, and Coen is someone who knows how to get multiple receivers involved in his offense.
He’s also good for running back Travis Etienne, who enters a contract year. You should expect the best looking Jacksonville offense since at least 2022 when Lawrence was at his best, throwing 25 touchdowns and winning a playoff game against the Chargers.
While that’s the only season where he cleared the over on 21.5 touchdowns, you have to trust that duo of Thomas and Hunter with the new coach for Lawrence to deliver his best season yet and give the Jaguars real hope for the future again.
NFL Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
