NFL Quarterback Passing Props: Big Year Coming for Patrick Mahomes
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Scott Kacsmar
- May 6, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL is a passing league, which makes it a quarterback league. You aren’t competing for much without a franchise quarterback, but even those on the fringe of being a franchise player can present some great value when placing NFL futures bets.
We have a few months until training camps open for the 2025 NFL season, but you will start to see top-rated sportsbooks offer plenty of futures bets for this season on quarterback statistics such as passing yards, passing touchdowns and interceptions.
We wanted to highlight some of the best-looking bets as things stand today before the NFL schedule is released for the 2025 season.
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) – Over/Under 19.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jalen Hurts may be the reigning Super Bowl MVP after picking up the slack for the running game that evening, but something he didn’t do last season was throw 20 touchdown passes. He finished with 18 of those in the 15 games he played.
The sportsbooks are looking to set a modest line for Hurts at Over/Under 19.5 passing touchdowns this season.
Healthy Hurts Should Cruise
Hurts threw for 22 and 23 touchdowns in 2022-23, so he has gone over the number before. But it’s true there are some factors that could lead to fewer touchdowns with his arm for Hurts than most quarterbacks would have as the head of this high-powered offense.
He’ll have yet another offensive coordinator after Kellen Moore took the head coaching job in New Orleans, so that’s another change in that role for this offense since Hurts has been there.
The Tush Push still hasn’t been banned, so that remains a very effective play for the Eagles and Hurts. He scored 14 rushing touchdowns in the 2024 regular season, and that play becomes almost automatic for the Eagles once they get to the 1-yard line.
However, you can argue the offense had an unusual number of plays stopped at the 1 last year that should regress to the mean. Saquon Barkley also had 4 rushing touchdowns of 65-plus yards in the regular season, then hit a few more home runs in the playoffs, shattering a single-season record for 60-yard touchdown runs that should regress in 2025.
So, if you have an offense that is expected to have fewer long rushing touchdowns, and maybe fewer 1-yard Tush Push scores, then a healthy Hurts shouldn’t have much problem passing for over 19.5 touchdowns with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert returning as his main receivers.
If Hurts goes Under, it’s likely going to be an injury that knocks him out for multiple games.
NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 19.5 Passing Touchdowns at BetOnline
Jared Goff (Lions) – Over/Under 3850.5 Passing Yards
One of the offenses people will be focusing on heavily this year is Detroit to see how Jared Goff and company fare after stud offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left for the Bears.
The Lions still have a ton of talent, but many think Johnson’s scheme and creativity helped elevate things with timely play calls and plans. But Goff has been around long enough that he should be fine in adjusting to a new coordinator.
However, it’ll be great to see the interception props when they come out, as taking Goff to go over in interceptions thrown without Johnson’s guidance feels like a great bet. But without a feel for what that number is going to be, we’re looking at the passing yardage market set at 3850.5 yards.
Steady and Productive
Goff has thrown for at least 4,438 yards in each of the last 3 seasons in Detroit, and he had at least 3,952 yards in his last 3 seasons with the Rams in 2018-20 as well. You’re talking about a quarterback who has thrown for over 4,400 yards 5 times in his career, so he’s used to posting big numbers.
Goff has also done a great job of staying healthy. He has missed just 4 games due to injury in his career, and 3-of-4 were in the 2020 season due to a variety of ailments. Goff hasn’t sat out a game for injury since 2021.
Without Johnson, it’s easy to think the Lions will regress a bit from last year’s 15-2 campaign. But that could mean more of a decline in the running game as the Lions could trail more, forcing more passing this year.
Either way, the over in passing yards for Goff looks very tempting right now.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 3850.5 Passing Yards at BetOnline
Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) – Over/Under 3275.5 Passing Yards
The Falcons may not have wanted to see Michael Penix Jr. start as a rookie, but Kirk Cousins did not work out according to plan. Penix started the last 3 games and averaged 245.7 passing yards per game, which would put him on a 17-game pace for 4,176 yards, easily surpassing his current line of 3275.5 passing yards.
The Falcons have some quality weapons, such as:
- Bijan Robinson
- Drake London
- Kyle Pitts
They tried to fix the defense in this year’s draft, but this team is still unlikely to have an elite defense, so there should be some shootouts with the Buccaneers and an improving Carolina team in that division.
Still, Penix looked impressive for a rookie, and he was a very experienced passer in college, so he looks to have a natural feel for the position and a coaching staff that trusts him already. He’ll get to show his worth as the Week 1 starter this year.
Penix may not be a lock for a 4,000-yard passing season just yet if the team wants to get Robinson going on the ground and play better defense. But he shouldn’t struggle to get over 3275.5 yards or else the Falcons have a big mess on their hands at the quarterback position.
NFL Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 3275.5 Passing Yards at BetOnline
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – Over/Under 27.5 Passing Touchdowns
When Patrick Mahomes passed for 50 touchdowns and won MVP in his 1st year as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, it felt like he was going to routinely lead the league in this category. Even after the team traded away Tyreek Hill in 2022, Mahomes led the NFL with 41 touchdown passes and won his 2nd MVP.
But in 2023, Mahomes’ receivers led the NFL in dropped passes and he threw 27 touchdowns. Last year, despite the starters losing a single game all season, Mahomes finished with 26 touchdown passes as his touchdown rate was down to a career-low 4.5% for the 2nd season in a row.
Young WRs to Step Up
At times, the Chiefs struggled to move the ball, and they were especially underwhelming in the red zone as their trickery and gadget plays seemed to dry up. Travis Kelce also wasn’t his usual dominant self in the red zone, and he’s only getting older (36 in 2025, his likely final season).
But you almost get the sense that Mahomes showed his frustration with the offense’s inability to connect on deep balls after the few he hit late in the Super Bowl blowout loss to the Eagles. That needs to be a sign of things to come with this offense as it shifts to a younger, more explosive attack that features those wideouts like Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy instead of relying on veterans like Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins.
The Chiefs just lacked explosive plays, good YAC plays, and red-zone execution in 2024. They’ll need to get better at all of those things in 2025 if they’re going to make history and return to the Super Bowl once again.
Bounce-Back Season
With people questioning Mahomes after the 2nd Super Bowl rout of his career, look for him to come back determined to have his best numbers since 2022. That would absolutely come with a minimum of throwing for over 27.5 touchdowns, a number that his talent should be clearing every single year.
The only real concern is if there’s any disciplinary action for the off-field transgressions by Rice and Worthy in the last few offseasons. But after the Chiefs went through 4 left tackles and lost both starting wideouts for most of 2024, Mahomes should have more consistency around him in 2025.
He’s also got a chip back on his shoulder and needs to remind people why he’s the new face of the NFL. Take all the overs on his passing numbers this year as the Chiefs get back to throwing deep and throwing to speedy players who can catch.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
