NFL Preseason Bills vs. Bears Best Bets for August 17: Buffalo Is on a Higher Level

The Odds

Chicago is favored tonight because the Bears are expected to be more invested in giving their starters playing time tonight.

However, as we saw last night when the heavily dogged Rams beat the Chargers, oddsmakers regularly exaggerate the significance of expected starter playing time.

In particular, the odds do not account for how poorly Chicago’s starting quarterback has been performing this summer.

Struggling Caleb Williams

It sounds brutal to say, but Williams is likely not smart enough to pick up new offensive-minded head coach Ben Johnson’s offense.

On paper, his new coach creates great optimism for Chicago’s offense because he is a well-reputed genius. But one has to consider that his quarterback last year was an experienced and well-proven veteran who is mentally way more developed than Williams.

Williams’ entrance into the league has been plagued by deficiencies that indicate enduring issues with his brain. He took so many sacks last year largely because he failed to process defenses with sufficient quickness.

His struggle to find conceptual comfort with Ben Johnson’s new concepts is overwhelming his composure as a whole, such that even basic throws often appear too difficult to him.

Practice reports indicate issues with accuracy that further create a negative outlook for him tonight. Even if he were to actually make a good decision and punctually find a target, it seems rather unlikely that he’ll hit his target.

His general discomfort is extending to his offense as a whole. Pre-snap penalties, for example, are still a problem for the Bears. Flow and rhythm are absent.  

Chicago’s Problematic Offensive Line

The Bears’ offensive line also deserves some blame for the ongoing ineptitude of its offense.

There are some new players, which creates chemistry issues because new offensive linemen need time to gel with each other. Still, Buffalo’s defensive line also has new pieces, and yet practice reports indicate that the Bills’ defensive linemen absolutely dominated Chicago’s offensive line.

Buffalo’s full-game outlook tonight is solidified by the great performance that even its backups accomplished by applying heavy pressure on Chicago’s quarterback room that made it impossible to try to target wide receivers.

Young players, such as rookie Landon Jackson and fellow defensive lineman DeWayne Carter, have proven their ability to help lock down the Bears’ offense.

Yet a Chicago ground game that was largely anemic in its first preseason game won’t help out its quarterbacks tonight against a Bills defense that shut down Giants running backs in its first game, holding New York to 3.2 YPC with one of New York’s quarterbacks being its leading rusher.

Tyson Bagent

Reports from Chicago journalists that Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent often outplayed Williams in practice do not inspire confidence in Bagent, but rather create more concern for Williams.

Bagent is a young undrafted free agent who is in the thick of Chicago’s backup quarterback competition. He has a career 71.9 passer rating.

In his first preseason game, he managed all of 103 passing yards on 19 pass attempts and threw one touchdown and one interception, amounting to a 77.3 passer rating.

Especially with lack of support from his offensive line and ground game and especially when you consider that, like Williams, he is a young guy struggling to pick up a new offense, his outlook tonight looks especially poor.

Buffalo’s Quarterback Group

In their first preseason game, Buffalo’s quarterbacks looked great, reinforcing our sense that the Bills are wrongly dogged tonight because they won’t miss Josh Allen, who presumably won’t see the field tonight.

Against the Giants, Mitchell Trubisky, Mike White, and Shane Buechele went a combined 27-for-38 with 331 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions.

Trubisky and White are competing to be Allen’s backup this year.

Trubisky will be especially motivated to return to Chicago. He was drafted by the Bears and accumulated a great amount of starting experience for them. White also enjoyed some success as a starter for the Jets.

Unlike Williams, these quarterbacks enjoy an offensive line with competitive depth that was the NFL’s best at limiting sacks last year and that continues to ably protect its quarterbacks and provide expansive operating room for its running backs.

Great Underdog

The Giants just held the Jets to twelve points, so it’s not like the defense that Buffalo’s offense thrived against is particularly bad.

While one can say good things about Chicago’s defense, it doesn’t negate the positive details about the quality of Buffalo’s pass rush, which is complemented by the heavy investment that Buffalo has made in its secondary.

The key difference for this game is provided by Buffalo’s passing game and ground game, both of which will perform much better than Chicago’s quarterbacks and running backs.

With the Bills dogged by fewer than three points, it makes sense to take the moneyline for a nicer payout at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

Buffalo Bills ML (+135)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.