NFL Preseason Best Bet for August 7: Stick With Harbaugh for Week 1

Don’t mess with the Harbaughs. They take their NFL preseason games seriously, as we were reminded at last Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game when Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers whacked the Detroit Lions 34-7, after moving from a pick ‘em to close at +1.5 under pressure from bettors hoping to capitalize on the quarterback mismatch. Good thing we had over 33 instead here at the ranch.

Now we’ve got a similar situation brewing in Baltimore, where John Harbaugh’s Ravens are about to host the Indianapolis Colts this Thursday night. The Ravens opened as 1-point home dogs, but have already steamed to +6 on the NFL odds board at Bovada, following Tuesday’s news that Colts head coach Shane Steichen will play his top two quarterbacks during the first half.

So why aren’t we steering clear of the Ravens for our NFL picks, and recommending the Over like we did last week? Because the betting angles heading into Thursday’s contest are way bigger than they were for the Hall of Fame Game, and now we’re getting six points in a game with a modest 36-point total. It’s a moral imperative.

Why Is John Harbaugh So Good in Preseason Games?

Because he cares. The Harbaughs grew up on football; their father, Jack Harbaugh, was an assistant coach at Michigan under Bo Schembechler. Then John Harbaugh went to Miami (Ohio) and played defensive back before starting his coaching career in 1984.

It’s also worth noting that Harbaugh was a special-teams coordinator in his first NFL gig with the Philadelphia Eagles, which he held from 1998 to 2006. This job requires you to work with players from both sides of the ball, as well as kickers, punters, and holders. Disciplined effort and attention to detail are paramount, so your team is prepared to do the right things in the right situations.

Harbaugh doesn’t skimp on the preparation. He’s the most notorious coach on the NFL preseason ATS charts at 40-21 lifetime, including 14-2 ATS in Week 1. Steichen, a former quarterback at UNLV, is 2-2 ATS overall and 0-2 ATS in openers since landing his first head coaching job in 2023. He’s got some chops as an offensive guru, but Steichen’s situational awareness isn’t at Harbaugh’s level. I’m not sure anyone’s is.

What About the Quarterbacks?

Steichen confirmed Tuesday that Anthony Richardson will start in Baltimore and play the first “quarter and a half,” with Daniel Jones finishing the half. Then they’ll flip roles for their Week 2 preseason game versus the Green Bay Packers. Riley Leonard and Jason Bean complete the depth chart for Indianapolis.

Meanwhile, Harbaugh told reporters on Sunday that his “top guys” will be sitting this one out, including QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry. This should come as no surprise; Jackson is the clear No. 1, so it’ll be No. 2 Cooper Rush and No. 3 Devin Leary carrying the load this Thursday.

Who really has the advantage here? Richardson and Jones both have talent, but they’ve also struggled as NFL starters, while Rush proved quite capable filling in for oft-injured Dak Prescott, going 9-5 SU and ATS lifetime. Leary might be a fringe prospect at best, but at least he’s getting his reps in for Thursday while Jackson sits out practice for undisclosed personal reasons.

The Pick

It doesn’t look like weather will be much of a factor for this matchup, so we’re content to stick with the Harbaugh Advantage and put Baltimore in our NFL preseason picks – especially with that extra 10 cents we’re saving on juice at Bovada. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Ravens +6 (+100)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.