NFL Preseason Bengals vs. Commanders Best Bets for August 18: The Total Isn’t High Enough

The Angle

While the over/under for this game is high relative to other preseason games, it is not high for an NFL game in general — regular season game totals are routinely higher than 43 and often, in fact, exceed 50.

Tonight’s total is as low as it is because backup quarterbacks will be playing. Backup quarterbacks obviously, in general, lack the capabilities that starting quarterbacks have. Because quarterback play is central to the overall performance of a given offense, it often feels justified to have lower totals in preseason games.

However, quarterback play doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Quarterbacks play against defenses. So, we have to consider the quality of the defense that a quarterback will play against.

My argument for this game is that both defenses are so bad and each team’s quarterback room is sufficiently good that the total for this game is way too low.

Let’s, in other words, have more respect for the quarterbacks in this game and for what they’re capable of doing against such bad defenses.

Cincinnati’s Horrendous Defense

The Bengals barely finished last year’s season above .500 despite the fact that they ranked seventh in scoring offense.

Their defense was that bad: it allowed 25.5 points per game.

Of course, backups are going to be worse than starters. So, we can’t be surprised by the poor play of Cincinnati’s defense thus far, because its backups lack competence. 

The Bengals’ defense remains bad because that incompetence remains — they invested in new coaching, which brings immediate problems like a learning curve for the players — rather than new players, whose new coaches cannot protect them from further fundamental displays of ineptitude. 

Reviewing Its First Game

In its first preseason game, Cincinnati allowed 34 points to the Eagles. 34 points is a lot for a preseason game, giving the other team very little to do to send the game’s scoring over any posted total that a game can have.

It’s not like the Eagles were playing starters. Tanner McKee completed 20 of 25 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. McKee is not a high-talent guy. He was a sixth-round draft pick out of Stanford.

McKee did get support from a ground game that amassed 130 rushing yards against Cincinnati’s defense.

Is Washington’s Defense Worse?

In their first preseason game, the Commanders gave up 48 points to New England and its continually low-talent offense that ranked third-to-last in scoring last year.

With such a performance from Washington’s defense, Cincinnati can achieve the “over” all by itself tonight.

Unlike the Bengals tonight, the Patriots relied almost exclusively on backups — none of whom are stars — to have such great success against Washington’s defense.

Ben Wooldridge, an undrafted free agent who might be on the streets soon, completed nine of twelve passes for 132 yards and a touchdown.

Despite its ground game being a huge problem for New England last year, the Patriots amassed 153 rushing yards.

Last season, Washington’s run defense ranked second-to-last, and it apparently remains abysmal. Any team’s obvious is going to gash this run defense, which will make it easier for its quarterbacks to find open targets downfield.

Stars Are Shining

We will get plenty of game action from each team’s best offensive players.

Cincinnati’s head coach said that his starters will play a quarter tonight.

Joe Burrow is, obviously, a massive upgrade over Wooldridge and will level more severe punishment on Washington’s defense.

Likewise, Washington’s head coach announced that its star quarterback Jayden Daniels will play. He is expected to be out there for a few series.

This increased game action from starting offensive players must strengthen our expectation that both teams will field more than enough talent to light up the scoreboard against the soft defense that they’ll both encounter.

Backup Quarterbacks

But both teams also have backup quarterbacks who will prove more than capable.

For Washington, Josh Johnson threw for 173 yards, a touchdown, and an interception against New England.

While Sam Hartman was not nearly as productive, training camp reports indicate that we must expect much better play from him.

Hartman bounced back from his poor first preseason performance to connect well with his pass-catchers and score touchdowns in practice.

The Bengals have, beyond Burrow, two quarterbacks with starting experience in Desmond Ridder and Jake Browning, whose mediocrity against Philadelphia’s defense sufficed to land Cincinnati’s offense, which gets a much easier test tonight, at 27 points.

With both offenses having plenty of scoring talent, while the defenses are awful, the total is much too low tonight.

Over 43 (-107)

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