Table of Contents

NFL Divisional Round Picks: 3 Keys for 49ers to Upset Packers

Table of Contents

The San Francisco 49ers barely made the NFL Playoffs, but they overcame adversity to reach the Divisional Round. They upset the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the first game, but they will see another potent offense on the road this week. 

San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers

Saturday, January 22, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lambeau Field

The Packers will host the 49ers with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line. Green Bay is as healthy as they’ve been all year with key players returning late in the year. They have an elite offensive backfield led by Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, and they have the best receiver in the NFL.

None of this includes the impact Aaron Rodgers has in a game. Needless to say, this is a tall task for San Francisco. Still, the 49ers have repeatedly answered the call this year and defied the odds. 

Green Bay is favored at home by 6 points according to most sportsbooks. What can the 49ers do to upset the Packers and advance to the NFC Championship? Here are three keys for a surprising 49ers win on Saturday.

Keep it Simple for Jimmy G

Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t expected to finish the season as San Francisco’s starting quarterback, but he defied the odds and kept the job. He’s part of the reason why the 49ers made the Playoffs. However, he remains limited as a quarterback. 

The 49ers’ ability to win games correlates heavily with Jimmy G’s ability to limit turnovers. If he throws an interception, they rarely win. It might be obvious that a team needs to avoid turnovers to upset an opponent, but it matters more for San Francisco than most teams. 

NFL Playoffs: $1,000 Prop Bets Contest​

San Francisco needs to churn out long drives with simple concepts. Green Bay has a solid defense, but Jimmy G has beaten tougher teams this year thanks to the offense’s ability to scheme its way to success. 

Some teams can give the quarterback the football and ask them to be great. In fact, that’s why the Packers earned the top seed in the NFC with Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers can’t do that with Garoppolo. The fact remains that he needs to be put in a position to succeed with an executable gameplan that involves running the ball and simple reads. 

Get Creative With Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel is one of the strangest weapons in the NFL. He is elite as a receiver, and he’s quickly become WR1 for the 49ers. However, his speed out of the backfield is a unique skill. He lines up as a running back and takes handoffs often. He is a dual-threat receiver. 

We usually think of running backs who are able to split out wide and play as receivers. Samuel is a receiver who can line up in the backfield. This makes it easier to give him the ball with space, and he’s a matchup nightmare. 

Samuel needs all sorts of touches against Green Bay. Line him up outside. Throw it to him in the screen game. Hand him the ball in the backfield. Use him as a pass-catching back. Motion him to give him momentum. Heck, let him throw a few passes. The more unpredictable he is, the better for the 49ers. 

That won’t be enough to win the game, though. You still have to account for Green Bay’s elite offense. Here’s how you try to stop Rodgers and the Packers.

Limit the Back-Breaking Plays by Rodgers

Green Bay has all sorts of weapons, and you’re not going to stop all of them. The hardest part is that you can do everything right and still get beat by elite offensive play. 

Aaron Rodgers can scramble free and find an open man after evading the pass rush for five seconds. He can thread the needle 60 yards downfield into double coverage. He relies on Adams to make tough catches, and Adams almost always delivers. 

VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR’s Free Expert Sports Betting Picks for Today

With all of these options, you have to stay disciplined. Expect San Francisco to double Adams constantly, but they’ll also need to allocate bodies to stop the run. If Nick Bosa is fully healthy for this game, the strategy will be easier to implement. 

San Francisco has its hands full, but they know how to win. If they do these three things, they have a good shot of upsetting the Packers this Saturday.