NFL AFC South Player Props: The Best Trevor Lawrence Yet?
-
Scott Kacsmar
- August 13, 2025
The AFC South figures to be the AFC division most up for grabs in the 2025 NFL season.
The Houston Texans have won it the last 2 years, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have a new head coach (Liam Coen). Plus, this division has added the top 2 picks in the draft with quarterback Cam Ward (Titans) and dual-threat Travis Hunter (Jaguars).
The Colts are a different story, but we’ll look at the best NFL futures bets for player props at top-rated sportsbooks as well as our pick to win the division title.
Nico Collins Ready to Feast in Target-Heavy Texans Offense
- Over/Under 1150.5 Receiving Yards
The Houston Texans were expecting big things out of their revamped wide receiver corps in 2024 after trading for Stefon Diggs from the Bills. However, injuries ruined everything, as Diggs tore his ACL early in the season and is now with the Patriots.
Tank Dell was already injured as a rookie in 2023, then suffered an even more gruesome leg injury in December against the Chiefs.
It’s not clear if we’ll even see Dell play this season due to the severe nature and timing of his injury. That leaves a lot of available targets for Nico Collins, who was already the No. 1 receiver for quarterback C.J. Stroud anyway.
Collins, too, was injured last year, but he still reached 1,006 yards in 12 games played.
He’ll have some new wideouts to compete with for the ball this year. The Texans added slot receiver Christian Kirk from the Jaguars. The Texans also drafted receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Stroud-to-Collins Connection Set to Power Texans’ Air Attack
The hope for Higgins is that he’ll be close to a clone of Collins, as he’s 6’4”, a big target. Still, even Collins needed 3 seasons to have his breakout year in 2023 with Stroud, and the Texans are working in a new offensive coordinator.
The backfield also looks a bit rough with Joe Mixon injured again and Nick Chubb (Browns) trying to work his way back into form.
That said, look for Houston to rely on what it does best offensively. Stroud will be feeding the ball to Collins from every range on the field. He should be closer to the 1,297 yards he had in that 2023 season.
Pittman’s Yardage Bet Looks Safer Than Colts’ QB Situation
- Over/Under 775.5 Receiving Yards
You can tell from the available player props that even the sportsbooks are nervous about the Indianapolis offense this year.
Quarterback Anthony Richardson just can’t seem to stay healthy or play that well when he is on the field. Daniel Jones is usually bad for offensive stats, too. Still, he’s the player most likely to start in what looks like the bleakest quarterback situation in the AFC this year.
Even a great running back like Jonathan Taylor could fall victim to this lack of quarterback quality, as you can’t count on him to get the touchdowns if the offense isn’t in the red zone enough.
That’s why we’re siding with wide receiver Michael Pittman, who should still be one of the team’s best receivers. His lines are somewhat low for a WR1, but that’s because of the uncertain quarterback position.
Bank on Pittman’s Yards, Not Indy’s Quarterbacks
Pittman is a big target who can make plays down the field and after the catch.
You should trust his yards over his receptions since you can’t trust Richardson to hit the short throws to pad that total. You can’t trust the touchdowns either, as Pittman’s only scored 3 or 4 in the last few seasons anyway.
They don’t use him in the red zone.
But yards? We’ll take that bet. Pittman has gone over 800 yards in 4 straight seasons. He’s also been relatively healthy, playing 16 or 17 games in each of the last 4 seasons.
The Colts actually had 3 wide receivers barely break 800 yards last year, so maybe some are concerned Pittman will fall off in 2025. However, his contract says otherwise and he’s only 28 this year, so this is still his time to produce.
Take his over in receiving yards at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) and pray the quarterbacks are better than the lowest of low expectations in Indy.
Trevor Lawrence Poised for a Touchdown Revival in 2025
- Over/Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns
Trevor Lawrence is a polarizing quarterback, as many are still invested in him being an all-time great prospect that made him the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft.
However, entering Year 5 with the Jaguars, we’re still waiting for him to have a great season after injuries sacked him early the last couple of years. He’s much closer to league average than his contract and draft status say.
Still, there is hope for a big turnaround with the arrival of new coach Liam Coen, a Sean McVay disciple who helped Baker Mayfield to a career year with 41 touchdown passes in Tampa Bay last year. That offense also ran the ball very well, giving Mayfield a balanced attack that was good down the field and with screen passes.
Quick Strikes and Slot Targets Could Spark Lawrence’s Best Season Yet
Lawrence is at his best when he’s getting the ball out fast and with shorter throws. Coen will hopefully realize this, and they drafted Travis Hunter to play slot receiver to replace Christian Kirk.
Brian Thomas Jr. was a stud rookie last year and can make big plays down the field, so Hunter doesn’t even have to be the WR1 or get that many targets. He can eat from the slot in this offense.
Lawrence threw a career-high 25 touchdown passes in 2022, then had 21 touchdowns in a season where he tried to finish games not 100% in 2023. Last year, he only had 11 touchdowns in 10 games, but Coen should help with all of this.
In fact, Lawrence going over 22.5 touchdowns is one of the best lines for this passing touchdown market this year. The offense should be at its best around him with the best coaching he’s had in the NFL yet.
We’ll trust him at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) to deliver a career year.
Cam Ward Aims to Pass More Than Just the Rookie Test in Tennessee
- Over 3200.5 Passing Yards
It’s a new era in Tennessee with Miami quarterback Cam Ward going No. 1 in the draft. He was the right pick, and he is a favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a draft class that lacks many No. 1 wideouts or other rookie quarterbacks likely to start Week 1.
However, we’ll just focus on Ward’s passing yards.
He should be a significant upgrade over Will Levis, a wild cannon, who struggled to pick up Bill Callahan’s offense. Callahan did well in throwing the ball in Cincinnati. It wasn’t just with Joe Burrow either as he had success with little-known Jake Browning in 2023 when Burrow was injured.
Ward is a better prospect than Browning and Levis, and he can move and make backyard plays as well.
He also has a decent trio of veteran wide receivers in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and Van Jefferson. No, they’re not Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, but Ridley had 1,000 yards last year, Lockett is always reliable, and Jefferson has some speed.
From College Cannons to NFL Air Raids: Ward’s 3,200-Yard Path
Ward was a prolific passer in all 3 of his college football seasons.
He’s not going to run like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields would as young quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, he should be a lock for 3,000 yards passing by December, as the Titans are still likely going to trail and have to catch up in many games.
Last year, Mason Rudolph was well on pace for over 3,200 passing yards if he started every game, so we know Callahan wants to throw the ball. The days of Derrick Henry leading on the ground have been over in Tennessee as they go with Tony Pollard these days.
Look for the Titans to feature Ward as their best player right away. He’ll throw for over 3,200 yards and challenge for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
AFC South Showdown: Jaguars Poised to Roar in 2025-26
These are the current odds to win the 2025-26 AFC South:
It’s a little surprising the Colts are still this high, as there just isn’t a good reason to trust that quarterback situation this year. They need to start putting in a plan to land Arch Manning (Texas) in 2026 or 2027.
The Titans probably offer the best value here if Cam Ward is able to do a 2023 C.J. Stroud (Texans) or 2024 Jayden Daniels (Commanders) and lead this team to the playoffs right away. No one saw those teams coming either. However, the issue is that the Titans just lack any elite players on either side of the ball.
The Texans upgraded their offensive line and could still have the best defense in the division. But will C.J. Stroud improve under a new offensive coordinator, or was his rookie year still the best version of him with diminishing returns ever since?
Jaguars’ Playbook & Picks: Coen, Hunter, and a Turnover Turnaround
We’re going to back the Jaguars to win the AFC South behind a new coach (Coen) who understands the modern offense with motion and play-action passing.
He’s got the most exciting player in the draft in Travis Hunter, and they are due for some turnovers after just 9 takeaways on defense last year, tied with the 2021 Jaguars for the fewest in a 17-game season.
Guess what happened in 2022? The Jaguars forced 27 turnovers and made the playoffs as those things often regress to the mean. Adding a player like Hunter to the secondary translates into a bunch of interceptions. And if the offense is playing with more leads under Coen, that also leads to more splash plays.
The arrow is pointing up for Jacksonville, which also gets to play a pretty favorable schedule with no Bills, Lions, or Eagles (teams they were 0-3 against last year).
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
