NCAAB Best Bets for February 6: Tough Test for Texas-Arlington
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LT Profits
- February 6, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: North Dakota/Kansas City Over 139 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We had a winning 2-1 night in NCAA Basketball last night, leaving us at a solid 30-24-3, 55.6% in our last 57 plays at the top-rated sportsbooks.
The Thursday slate is nice in volume with 48 games on the main board, but it is lacking in marquee matchups with one Big Ten game being the only major conference battle on the entire card.
Still, money won from these games is just as sweet as money won from the NCAA Tournament! We have found three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. And it is not very often that we have best bets hailing from the Summit League, the WAC and the Big Sky Conference.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Maryland vs. Ohio State and Northeastern vs. Hofstra games!
North Dakota State Bison vs. Kansas City Roos
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Swinney Center
This looks like a light-posted total in the Summit League Thursday relative to our model, so we are backing the Over when North Dakota State visits UMKC at the Swinney Recreation Center.
Best Unrecognized Shooting Team?
North Dakota State is 16-8 overall and fourth in the Summit, but this is one of the better teams in the league as, at 116th in Kenpom, not much separates them from first-place St. Thomas at #109. And this just may be the best shooting team in the country that the vast majority of casual fans are unaware of.
With the Summit League not getting much national exposure, it is easy to overlook that the Bison are third in the nation eFG% at 58.4%! And this team is difficult to defend with its inside-outside game, ranking third in 3-point shooting at 39.8% and 22nd in 2-point shooting at 56.7%. And to complete the eFG% trifecta, they also rank 17th nationally in free throw shooting (78.3%).
As you may have gleaned, the reason NDSU is not better than 16-8 is a very giving defense ranked 277th in efficiency. But that plays right into the hands of our Over play in this game with this posted total under 140.
Second Chances Help
Granted, UMKC is 10-14 and seventh in the conference at a dismal 2-7, entering on a 7-game losing streak following a 2-0 Summit start. But only two games during this losing streak were at home, and Kansas City was very competitive in both games against teams ahead of NDSU in the standings, losing by three points to first-place St. Thomas and by one point to third-place South Dakota State.
They obviously do not shoot the ball nearly as well as the Bison, but let us not forget that NDSU does not play much defense and that the Roos generate a lot of second chances. That is because Kansas City is above average in offensive rebounding percentage overall at 31.7% and second in the conference in that category during league play at 33.5% (national average 30.0%).
And one thing UMKC has in common with the Bison is being a very good free throw shooting team, in fact ranking a bit higher at 13th (78.8%).
The Pick
So, we expect a typical North Dakota State game with the team shooting lights-out but the defense allowing the opponent to hang around. Add the expected second chance opportunities for UMKC and bet on the Over at a seemingly deflated number.
Predicted Score: North Dakota State 76 – Kansas City 73
NCAAB Pick: North Dakota/Kansas City Over 139 (-110) at Bovada
Texas-Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Valley Wolverines
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at UCCU Center
We are venturing into the WAC on Thursday night, where we are jumping on the opportunity to bet on one of the two best teams in the conference in Utah Valley at a reasonable price at home hosting UT Arlington.
Better Offense in Conference
Utah Valley is 15-7 overall and tied for first place in the WAC with Grand Canyon at 7-1. That is not surprising as it lines up with those being the two highest-ranked WAC teams in Kenpom by a wide margin over the rest of the conference. And UVU should be in an ornery mood here with the lone loss coming in a battle for conference supremacy on the road at Grand Canyon on Saturday 75-57.
We now look for the Wolverines to take out some frustrations returning home against a lesser opponent. Granted, a quick glance reveals that Utah Valley is only 230th nationally on offensive efficiency, but they have been much better than that in conference play ranking third inside the WAC, with the help of having the second fewest turnovers during league play.
And the defense has also been better inside the conference. The Wolves are an already commendable 80th nationally in defensive efficiency at 101.5 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 106.5), they have chopped that down to 98.4 points in league play.
Too Many Second Chances
UT Arlington is 11-11 overall and 4-4 in the conference, but like most of the WAC outside of the Big Two at the top, they sit outside of the Kenpom Top 200. Yes, they have won four straight games to even the WAC mark after a 0-4 start, but UVU is obviously a leap in class over the teams they beat, and being on the road against an angry team does not help.
The Mavericks have a poor defense ranking 275th in efficiency, and with a key reason being ranking 295th in defensive rebounding percentage. So as if the talent and motivational advantage for Utah Valley were not enough here, they can also expect to get more second chances.
Arlington grades out a bit better offensively, but they are still only above average with an offensive efficiency of 108.4 points per 100 possessions and an eFG% of 51.5% (national average 50.7%). We simply do not think that is good enough to make up for their defensive efficiencies.
The Pick
We think this is a nice spot for Utah Valley to bounce back from the loss at Grand Canyon, and this is a team winning out the rest of the way before the WAC tournament. We are giving the moderate spread with the Wolverines.
Predicted Score: Utah Valley 79 – Texas-Arlington 67
NCAAB Pick: Utah Valley -6.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Eastern Washington Eagles
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Reese Court
This may be an ugly Big Sky matchup Thursday with Sacramento State visiting Eastern Washington, but therein lies the reason why neither of these teams deserves to be a nearly double-digit favorite. Thus, we are taking the big points with the Hornets.
Too Sloppy on Offense
Eastern Washington comes in at 7-16 overall, 3-7 in weak Big Sky ranked as the 22nd “best” conference in Kenpom and ranked 246th overall. And this is the team currently listed as a 9-point favorite in this game!
Moreover, the Eagles grade out poorly on both ends of the court. On offense, they rank 256th in efficiency and 203rd in eFG%. They are also very sloppy with the basketball ranking 284th in turnover percentage. All of this has translated to only 72.4 points per game, a figure that has actually dropped to 67.8 points in Big Sky play.
The news is not any better on defense, where EWU ranks 229th in efficiency and 290th in eFG% allowed. None of this exactly inspires confidence in such a decided favorite.
Can Hang with Turnovers
Of course, this line is what it is because Sacramento State is 6-16 overall and below Eastern Washington in the conference standings at 2-7. But while we have no issue with the Hornets being underdogs here, should they really be underdogs by this much facing a team that does not score much?
Furthermore, there is actually one component where Sac State has fared reasonably well, which is the turnover percentage forced on defense. They are forcing turnovers at an above-average 17.9% rate overall, and they are better in that category during conference play, ranking third at 18.4%. We think that combined with the Eagles’ sloppiness on offense to begin with will make it hard for Eastern Washington to get out of the 60s here.
The Pick
That makes this a contest where we see both teams playing in the 60s, which makes Sacramento State the bet for us here as a nice value play getting these many points.
Predicted Score: Eastern Washington 68 – Sacramento State 65
NCAAB Pick: Sacramento State +9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
