NCAAB Best Bets for February 27: Gaels and Lions to Blow Over Total
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LT Profits
- February 27, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Saint Mary’s-Loyola Marymount Over 132 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We remain a steady 47-34-3, 58.0% in our last 84 NCAA Basketball plays even after a lackluster 1-2 night on Wednesday. We now return for a Thursday card that has good volume with 45 games on the main board but is lacking in high-profile matchups, with one Big Ten game being the only contest on the entire slate from a major conference.
Nonetheless, we have isolated three best bets for Thursday based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are totals that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. With hardly any major matchups, our three selections come from the Horizon League, Big West and the West Coast Conference.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers
Thursday, February 27, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena
We are taking a rare trek into the Horizon League Thursday for a matchup where we expect an abundance of close-range put-backs from both sides. That has us backing the Over when Milwaukee hosts Oakland at UWM Panther Arena.
2nd Best Offensive Rebounding Team
Milwaukee comes in a good 19-10 overall, and while they are currently fourth in Horizon play at 12-6, the top five teams in the league all have five or six losses. That means there is a lot to be determined over the last two games in terms of seeding. And it is no secret how UWM is winning games, with that being tenacious rebounding.
You see, the Panthers are only above average in offensive efficiency at 109.1 points per 100 possessions (national average 107.4) and eFG% at 51.4% (average 50.9%). Yet, they are averaging a good 78.8 points overall and a hefty 84.6 points here at home!
If you are wondering how that is possible, it is because this small school from a minor conference is second in the entire country in offensive rebounding rate at an amazing 40.9% (national average 29.9%) behind only Texas A&M of the mighty SEC. That has allowed them to run up scores with close-range put-backs.
And they figure to dominate the offensive glass again here facing an Oakland team that is a dismal 308th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Hot Offense Lately
With that said, Oakland is also capable of scoring points in this game. While they come in with a losing 13-16 record and sixth in the league at 10-8, that is not the fault of the offense. Rather, it is the defense that has struggled while ranking 227th in efficiency and 232nd in eFG% allowed, which serves as a boon to our Over.
The offense has been just fine, especially while scoring at least 75 points in six of the last seven games including breaking 80 points four times and 90 points twice. And the Golden Grizzlies also generate a lot of second chances ranking 52nd nationally and second in the conference (behind Milwaukee) in offensive rebounding percentage.
They have then capitalized well on those second opportunities by ranking third in the league in 2-point shooting at 54.6%.
So, what we have here is two teams that are good at generating offense via second chances, with Milwaukee elite in that aspect. Add a weak Oakland defense and bet on the Over on Thursday.
Predicted Score: Wisconsin Milwaukee 81 – Oakland 76
NCAAB Pick: Over 147 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal State Fullerton Titans
Thursday, February 27, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Titan Gym
In Big West play on Thursday night, we think that UC Irvine will be able to name the score against a poor Cal State Fullerton defense. But with that fact built into the large point spread, we are opting to bet on the Over with the Anteaters doing the heavy lifting.
Underrated?
Without any national fanfare, UC Irvine is quietly having a great season at 23-5 with a respectable 72nd overall ranking in Kenpom. But at 13-3 inside the conference, they are one game behind equally underrated UC San Diego (14-2), meaning we can expect an all-out effort here with just two regular-season games remaining.
And the Anteaters could not have asked for an easier opponent in a game they need than a last-place Fullerton club that has one the worst defenses in the country. The Titans rank 304th nationally in defensive efficiency and 303rd in eFG% allowed. For good measure, they also allow a ton of second chances by ranking 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
Considering that Irvine is averaging nearly 77 points in league play, we can easily see a still-motivated team upping that into the 80s while facing such a giving defense.
Thankfully Won’t Need Much
CS Fullerton is just paying out the string at an awful 6-22 overall and 1-15 in conference while entering on an 8-game losing streak. But if Irvine reaches 80 points like we expect and with this posted total currently available at 140.5, it would mean that a score in the 60s would be good enough to cash this Over.
Well, while the Titans rank a horrific 356th in the country in scoring, that average of 64.6 points per game may already be good enough to serve our purpose here. Then, consider that the average climbs nearly five points at home to 69.2 points, and there will almost certainly be potential for late garbage points in an expected blowout here.
Adding this all up, Irvine should be able to score at will in a game they need to keep regular season Big West title hopes alive facing a poor defense, and even a weak Fullerton offense can score enough with not much needed to clear the Over. That makes the Over our bet in Fullerton Thursday.
Predicted Score: UC Irvine 83 – Cal State Fullerton 68
NCAAB Pick: Over 140.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Loyola Marymount Lions
Thursday, February 27, 2025 – 11:00 PM ET at Gersten Pavilion
While this West Coast Conference contest is a mismatch on paper, we do not expect much intensity here from Saint Mary’s after clinching the regular season conference title. Thus, we expect looser play on defense, helping lead to an Over visiting Loyola Marymount on Thursday.
Clinched West Coast Title
Saint Mary’s is 25-4 and ranked 18th in Kenpom, but their last two regular season games are now meaningless. This is because they clinched the regular season WCC title by going into Spokane and completing a season sweep of conference kingpin Gonzaga on Saturday. So, to call this a letdown spot would be considered a huge understatement.
Still, even with nothing to play for, we think the Gaels will be able to put up points here with an offense rated 37th nationally in efficiency. That is especially true facing an LMU defense that applies no pressure, ranking 294th in the country in turnover percentage forced.
The Gaels should also have a huge advantage in this game in second chances, as they are an outstanding third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage while the Lions are 228th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Scored 93 Points Last Game
We think that the letdown for Saint Mary’s will be on the defensive end, where they may choose to preserve their energy for the more important games next week. That should open the door for Loyola Marymount to score more points than they normally would against a Gaels defense ranked 10th nationally in efficiency.
And it is not as if the Lions are incompetent anyway, as they enter with a winning record of 16-13 overall with a chance to even their conference record, which stands at 8-9 coming in. And this is a team that practices good ball control, ranking a good 54th in the country and third inside the conference in turnover percentage.
That means LMU is quite capable of taking advantage if Saint Mary’s lacks its usual defensive intensity, and remember that Marymount did just score 93 points in a win over Pepperdine on Saturday.
No, we are not saying LMU will score 90 again, but we do think they will score their share given the probable letdown by Saint Mary’s, while we think even a relaxed Gaels’ team can score on the Lions’ defense. That sounds like a great recipe for an Over in Los Angeles on Thursday.
Predicted Score: Saint Mary’s 78 – Loyola Marymount 64
NCAAB Pick: Over 132 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
