NCAA Basketball Bets for February 22: The Irish Don’t Need Luck Today
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Rainman M.
- February 22, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame +2.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Wake Forest vs. NC State, Penn State vs. Minnesota and Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in NC State, Penn State and Notre Dame.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 02:00 PM ET at Lenovo Center
Has NC State Packed It in?
After seeing the Wolfpack get blown out in their last game, bettors are going to be very interested in Wake Forest today. But this interest is erroneous.
The interest expresses the desire for easy wins. Bettors think that NC State has packed it in because its defenders — Ben Middlebrooks, for example — did give a very poor effort especially when guarding the interior against North Carolina.
NC State has been losing a ton of games. However, NC State has not given up completely. There is an awesome parallel in the NBA: the New Orleans Pelicans. The point of this parallel is to observe that teams perceived to be tanking still want to win for their home crowd. They compete at home.
Like the Pelicans, NC State is such a team.
NC State at Home
The Wolfpack won their last home game, defeating Boston College by eight.
They regularly compete with not-great teams at home. They give a solid effort at home and, therefore, surprise oddsmakers who underrate them because of how many road games they choose to play poorly in. For example:
- They lost by two at home to the North Carolina team that just blew them out in Chapel Hill.
- Also at home, they lost by three to a California team that happened to shoot massively better from behind the arc.
- Lost by six to a far superior SMU team despite missing 20 three-pointers.
- Beat both Notre Dame and Florida State.
Wake Forest is objectively no better and arguably worse than the Tar Heel team that won by two in Raleigh where NC State missed 16 three-point attempts and that does not match up against NC State as poorly as Wake Forest does.
Ben Middlebrooks
Expect a bounce-back game from Middlebrooks after his poor effort in his team’s last contest.
Middlebrooks is definitely a strong rim protector. He’s a physical defender who ranks an impressive 64th in block rate. He is exactly what a defense needs to lock down a Wake Forest offense that is averse to attempting threes and does an atrocious job of making them.
NC State’s Ball Movement
On offense, NC State is at its best when it can move the ball around. The Wolfpack prioritize passing the ball, as evident, for example, in the improved passing ability of wing Jayden Taylor, which you can see in his stronger assist rate this season. They have bigs and a point guard who likewise pass the ball well.
When they lost to North Carolina in their last game, they only achieved assists on six of their 27 made field goals. Conversely, when they beat Boston College on Saturday, they paired 24 made baskets with 14 assists. Their outlook is solid against a Wake Forest defense that allows one of the highest assist-to-field goal ratios in the country.
This year, the Demon Deacons altered their ball-screen defense. They are now more aggressive, featuring more hard hedges. A team like NC State that rarely commits turnovers and that has the passing ability to punish a defense for being aggressive will slice up Wake Forest.
Takeaway
True, NC State lost its last game against Wake Forest, but that game was on the road. We already saw, for example, NC State at home hang within two of a North Carolina team that it lost to by 24 in its venue.
The Wolfpack are substantially better at home, especially against teams of Wake Forest’s caliber.
NC State will flex its matchup advantages at home, specifically its strong interior defense spearheaded by a solid shot-blocker in Middlebrooks and its ball movement and passing ability on offense.
NCAAB Pick: NC State +2 (-110) at BetOnline
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 02:00 PM ET at Williams Arena
How Penn State Wins Games
Look, Penn State doesn’t win a lot of games. But obviously, there are many losing teams every day that cover the spread. So we can’t be turned off by a team’s record. The key is to know what to look for.
In its last game, a 17-point win over Nebraska, Penn State competed on the glass, flexed strong inside scoring and got to the free throw line a lot. Rebounding is normally a vulnerable point for the Nittany Lions, so it’s helpful for them to face a team that won’t exploit that vulnerable point. They also have a strong scoring center and collection of wings with which to score inside and draw fouls.
Big and physical center Yanic Konan Niederhauser ranks top 100 in both drawing fouls and two-point efficiency. As for wings, Penn State’s best one is Zach Hicks, an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention last year.
Minnesota’s Vulnerable Defense
On defense, Minnesota looked great against USC even though the Trojans had a massive performance from behind the arc. USC is very much a guard-centered team. The Golden Gophers likewise looked good against a UCLA team whose top wing hasn’t scored ten points in a single game in February.
However, the Golden Gophers were blown out by an Illinois team whose center —who differs from Penn State’s center by all of one inch and five pounds— and top-scoring wing combined for 45 points. As also evident in their home loss to Washington and in their blowout loss at Wisconsin, the Golden Gophers struggle against offenses that feature good scoring wings and centers.
Minnesota also matches up poorly against Penn State because it fouls at a high rate and is a very poor rebounding team.
Efficiency
With its talented scoring wings —look out for Freddie Dilione V, who was 5-for-5 inside the arc against Nebraska— and its momentous rim-attacking center, Penn State will be very efficient.
Conversely, Minnesota’s offense will fail to be efficient because it has a big problem, as a team, with turning the ball over. Penn State’s defense excels at forcing turnovers. So its offense will attempt more shots and free throws than Minnesota, which, with its efficiency, will also mean a lot more points.
NCAAB Pick: Penn State +3 (-115) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 02:15 PM ET at Joyce Center
Don’t Worry About Notre Dame
Notre Dame might seem worth fading at home because it has lost three home games in a row. But we, as rational bettors, always have to examine the reason for trends instead of accepting them blindly.
Notre Dame’s last three home games came against excellent SMU and Louisville teams, which are two of the ACC’s best teams, and against a Virginia Tech team that, as I will explain, matches up very well against it.
However, the Irish, at home, beat Georgia Tech and Boston College and lost by one against the Tar Heels. Notre Dame, with the right matchup and facing a non-elite ACC team, must be expected to cover the spread and win.
What Pittsburgh Lacks
Virginia Tech is a tough and physical front-court-dependent team. Notre Dame’s interior defense is thin, so the Hokies were able to thrive by leaning on guys like power forward-center Tobi Lawal.
What Pitt lacks is a tough frontcourt. The Panthers’ top two shot-takers are, by a large margin, guards.
Notre Dame’s Three-Pointers
Whereas Pittsburgh lacks the physical tools to take advantage of Notre Dame’s interior defense —conversely, the Irish are great at contesting three-pointers— Notre Dame’s offense has the weapons with which to exploit Pitt’s defense.
The Irish love to shoot threes. Look out especially for Matt Allocco, also known as the team’s glue guy. He is ready to flex his 45.5-percent three-point conversion rate. Sizzling Braeden Shrewsberry and Markus Burton are also efficient from deep.
Their outlook is excellent against a Pitt team that allows the ACC’s highest point distribution from behind the arc.
Takeaway
Notre Dame’s interior defense won’t get exposed in this matchup. Pittsburgh’s perimeter defense will get exposed. The matchup, thus, favors the Irish at home, where they reliably handle teams like Pitt.
NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame +2.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
