The Phoenix Suns took Game 1 with a straight-up and ATS win against the Dallas Mavericks. Now with similar NBA Odds for Game 2, can we back the NBA underdog again in hopes of different results?
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
Why Luka Doncic Couldn’t Save Mavs in Game 1?
Despite Luka Doncic putting up what was, at the time (before Ja Morant’s 47 points on Tuesday) the best playoff performance of any game to date this postseason, the Mavs couldn’t overcome the first-half blitz by the Suns.
Dallas stormed back in the fourth quarter but it was too little too late by that point. A few things I noted from that game is the Mavs’ defense adjusted well in the second half, but with their one-sided Luka-led offense, the Suns just methodically kept them at bay because Dallas couldn’t really find a second scoring option.
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Maxi Kleber had the game of his life off the bench and that wasn’t enough. If you ask me whether I think the Suns will have five or six guys in double figures or Kleber will go for 20 again in Game 2, I can tell you I’m not betting on Kleber repeating his performance.
Along with that, Jalen Brunson obviously has a tough assignment on defense, which will of course impact his offense, but the Mavs need him to score a lot as well, so that has to improve in Game 2.
Mavs vs. Suns Line Movement
The Suns got contributions from everywhere and that’s likely going to be their game plan in Game 2. Keep the Mavs guessing and keep the pressure on defense on route to a 2-0 series lead.
I think we were on the right side of the Mavs in Game 1 despite the loss. They were down 13 at the half and lost by seven. All we needed was two more points from them somewhere in Game 1.
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Now that the spread has lengthened a half-point to +6 at the NBA odds board, I’m once again taking points with Dallas here.
However, because this is still a road game against a very good opponent, I’m staying in the first half of this one. I was impressed enough with the Suns to not fade them the second game in a row, but for the first half, that’s a different story.
What's the Mavs vs. Suns Game 2 Pick?
I’m sure the Mavs know they can’t fall behind double figures at the half on the road again. It’s not impossible to make that kind of a comeback in a playoff game, but against a veteran-led Suns team with a lot of balance, talent, and coaching, it’s damn near impossible.
Both of these teams ranked inside the top 10 in first-half defense this season and while Dallas did most of their damage in that department at home, the desperation of not wanting to fall down 2-0 should get them to a cover here in the first half. We saw that with Memphis last night, but in reverse at home.
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I don’t think desperation alone will be enough to get the Mavs a straight-up win tonight, or even for them to be ahead at the half.
That being said, I think the +3 ½ first half odds still being up at a couple of shops is enough value for my NBA picks. There could be a scenario where the Suns relax some after Game 1 and the Mavs muscle them into a one-possession game at the half.
It’s not the most glamorous underdog, but it should get us the cash at the top-rated books this time for our underdog of the day.
NBA Pick: Mavs +3.5 1st Half (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
