NBA Finals Best Bets for June 22: Pacers FTW – Or Hedge Judiciously
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Jason Lake
- June 22, 2025
NBA Pick: Pacers +7.5 (–110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
What more do the Indiana Pacers have to prove? After storming their way to the Eastern Conference title, the Pacers were pegged as +460 underdogs on the 2025 NBA Finals odds board; now, having fought the Oklahoma City Thunder (–675) to a draw over the first six games, Indiana remains a sizable 7.5-point underdog at Bookmaker for Sunday’s finale as we go to press.
Why look this gift horse in the mouth? The Pacers are obviously going in our NBA picks here at the ranch – as they did way back in early May when we recommended Indiana as +1200 underdogs to win the championship. But if you were one of those intrepid bettors at the online sportsbooks, or maybe you grabbed them ‘Cers at +460 on the NBA Finals series prices, this might be a good time to hedge said bets by cashing out or hammering the Thunder.
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Paycom Center
Why Bet on the Pacers?
Because they’re outperforming public expectations – and it’s sustainable. Casual fans probably weren’t paying much attention during the regular season, when Indiana (50-32 SU, 36-45-1 ATS) got off to a slow start and had to settle for the No. 4 seed in the East. They didn’t see those injuries to key 3-and-D starters Andrew Nembhard (45.8% from downtown in these playoffs) and Aaron Nesmith (43.1%).
If the casuals were paying any attention at all, they saw Tyrese Haliburton struggle while Nembhard and Nesmith sat out most of November. Maybe they even bought into the “overrated” label that Haliburton’s fellow NBAers slapped on him via that April poll from The Athletic. And who knows, maybe Haliburton just rubs so many bettors the wrong way, they want to see him fail.
Meanwhile, the Thunder (68-14 SU, 55-23-4 ATS) were busy giving us arguably the best NBA regular season of all time, judging by their record plus-12.9 point differential. They’ve got this year’s MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They’ve got a compelling Big Three with SGA, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. They’ve got depth at every position. What’s not to love?
Why Fade the Thunder?
Because they might not be ready for prime time. As you’ve no doubt heard by now, Oklahoma City (average age 24.7) has the youngest roster of any NBA Finals team since the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers (24.5). This is the furthest that SGA and his cohort have ever made it into the postseason. It’s a learning process, as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden found out in 2012 when OKC (–175) lost to the Miami Heat.
Granted, those ‘77 Blazers did win the title in their first-ever trip to the playoffs. But they had a very special player in Bill Walton at the peak of his powers, at a time when the rest of the league was woefully unprepared. Gilgeous-Alexander is outstanding, but he can be contained; the Denver Nuggets used their experience to take OKC to Game 7 during the Western Conference semis, and now the Pacers – with former champion Pascal Siakam (from the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors) leading the team in scoring – have done the same.
The Pick
If you haven’t already laid some wood on Indiana’s NBA futures, by all means load up on these plucky underdogs while there’s still time. However, it may make sense for you to hedge instead if you’ve got serious money tied up in all this. You’ll have to pay a premium to cash out your futures wager, but you’ll presumably lock in somewhere around half the payout you’d get from Indiana winning Game 7. Don’t let those greenbacks slip through your fingers if you really need them.
You can also guarantee an overall profit by taking the Thunder on the moneyline (–240 at Bovada as we go to press) for a larger payout than your original Indiana futures bet size – but not too large. Whichever choice you make, thank you very much for joining us on this journey through the NBA betting landscape. Enjoy the summer now that it’s here, and as always, may the sphere be with you
NBA Pick: Pacers +7.5 (–110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
