NBA Finals Best Bets for June 16: How to Bet Tonight’s Crucial Game 5

Indiana Pacers

The feel-good story of the league continues as the Indiana Pacers continue to defy the NBA odds, confound the experts, and get wins as underdogs. The Pacers have not been favored in a game yet this series, and tonight is no different, as they are looking at a 9.5 spread.

On the surface, this makes sense when looking at the Thunder’s excellent net rating this year. The Thunder won 68 games, and their margin of victory was so impressive. They had the third-highest net rating in the last 50 years.

So not only do the Thunder win, they win by a margin. However, the Pacers have shown that they have the Kryptonite to avoid getting blown out. No team lives up to its name better than the Indiana Pacers. The Indiana Pacers will beat you with their pace.

The Pace Problem

One thing that has stood out in this series is the Pacers’ ability to wear down their opponents in the fourth quarter. The Pacers run the ball down the court off of everything. The Pacers can still get up a shot in seven seconds even off made baskets. This team likes to push the ball, and they put relentless pressure on your defense.

Oklahoma City displayed the best defense in the NBA this season, but the Pacers are putting it to the test. The Thunder have the individual chops on defense, but the Pacers have shown the ability to wear them down, especially in the fourth quarter. With all the pressure, nerves, and adrenaline going into this game, can the Pacers make the Thunder vulnerable to more fourth-quarter fatigue?

Missed Opportunity in Game 4

The Pacers had a chance to really take control of the series in Game 4. However, they became a victim of their own medicine when they collapsed in the 4th quarter in Game 4. Oklahoma City was down 10 points in the second half before winning 111-104. This was definitely a tough end for Indiana Pacers bettors who had the +6.5. However, that is the world of gambling and the world that we will continue to live in when this game tips off tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder

One thing the Thunder can improve on from their Game 4 victory is three-point shooting. The Thunder were 3-16 from three for an 18.8% 3-point percentage.

You have to give credit to the Thunder for two things. One, winning an NBA Finals game in 2025 with only three three-pointers made. Also, having the self-awareness to start driving to the hoop and taking two-point shots when the 3-pointer is not falling.

Adjusting the Modern Game

One of my pet peeves in this current trend in the sport is not the amount of three-pointers, it’s the amount of three-pointers attempted when the three-point shot isn’t falling.

It is fine to bomb away from three, especially when you’re hot, but when the ball isn’t falling, you need to get to the rim, look for layups, and try to get to the foul line to establish your shooting stroke. So many teams fail to do this, most notably the Boston Celtics in their loss to the New York Knicks in the second round of the playoffs.

Give credit to the Thunder coaching staff and players for making the correct adjustment when the three-point shot wasn’t there for them.

Role Players and Defense Key to Victory

The Thunder have bounced back well from losses all season. Yet coming off the win, they’re going to have to try and keep their momentum tonight. The Thunder will need more important contributions from the role players who stepped up, such as Alex Caruso, who had 20 points in the win. The Thunder were able to get the win with their swarming, versatile defense, which held Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton to only 17 points.

The Thunder are going to need to continue to clamp down on the defensive end in order to finish off this series.

Key Matchup: Lou Dort vs. Tyrese Haliburton

Lou Dort has been excellent against Tyrese Haliburton so far this series. Although Haliburton has gotten loose sometimes, in each Thunder win, Dort has done an excellent job of holding the Pacers’ star guard to an average performance. This was the case in both Game 2 and Game 4.

The Thunder are going to need the best effort yet from Dort tonight as they look to take control of the series. If Dort is able to shut down Haliburton once again, the Thunder will win this game. If Haliburton is able to have a big game in spite of relentless defensive pressure, the Pacers can steal a road win and head back to Indiana with the lead.

The Pick

Once again, the Indiana Pacers are being undervalued and are getting too many points. In this series, the Pacers have done well in the odd games. The Pacers did win Game 1 and Game 3. The zig-zag has been in effect this series, and it will continue tonight.

This line is too high due to the Thunder’s regular-season success and their early-round playoff dominance. However, nothing we have seen on the floor in the series suggests that the Pacers should be this big of underdogs. In a series in which the Pacers have won two games outright, how are they catching 9.5 points? Too much math, not enough game tape is setting this line. Give me the points once again. Give me the Indiana Pacers.

NBA Pick: Pacers +9.5 (-110) at Bookmaker 

Pacers +9.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.