NBA Best Bets for February 28: Fade the Zombie Sonics

How good are the Oklahoma City Thunder? They’re one of the best NBA teams of all-time. At plus-12.41 on the Simple Rating System at Basketball Reference, the 2024-25 Thunder (47-11 SU, 35-19-4 ATS) are well ahead of last year’s Boston Celtics at plus-10.75 SRS. Not even Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls can touch them.

So of course we’re putting the Atlanta Hawks (27-32 SU, 28-31 ATS) in our NBA picks this Friday. And no, it’s not because I’m still sore about Clay Bennett and Aubrey McClendon absconding with my beloved Seattle SuperSonics. Mumble grumble.

Why Do You Hate Oklahoma City?

Seriously, it’s nothing personal. I’m just a humble journalist doing my job, and it’s my job to tell you that the betting market for Oklahoma City may have already peaked. They’re 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five games; make it 12-4 SU and 6-9-1 ATS if you stretch that sample size back to January 22.

That bubble had to burst at some point. The Thunder may have built-in betting value playing in Flyover Country USA, and they are indeed the most profitable team in the Western Conference despite their recent slump. But everyone’s onto them now. The public money charts we’re following here at the ranch have OKC ranked second overall this year, and hanging around at No. 10 during these past 30 unprofitable days.

Is Atlanta Any Good?

They’re ninth in the Eastern Conference with a good shot of securing home-court in the 7 vs. 8 Game, so life can’t be all that bad for the Hawks. But more was expected from Quin Snyder’s team in his third year at the helm. Instead, their performance level has slipped from minus-2.38 SRS last year to minus-2.76 SRS in ‘24-25.

Not that Snyder’s to blame. He’s working with a very raw talent in No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher (minus-4.0 BPM), and the roster surrounding Risacher is looking even thinner without the following injured players:

• SF Jalen Johnson (shoulder)
• PG Vit Krejci (back)
• PF Larry Nance Jr. (knee)
• SG Kobe Bufkin (shoulder)

No wonder the Hawks decided to cut bait and send De’Andre Hunter to the Cleveland Cavaliers at the trade deadline. But what if we told you Atlanta got the better end of that deal? And they’re 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS since pulling the trigger?

Is Caris LeVert Better Than De’Andre Hunter?

Maybe at some things. Hunter has some serious two-way potential, although he gets overmatched defensively at 6-foot-8 when you play him at power forward, which Cleveland has done about 70% of the time compared to 50/50 between the 3 and 4 in Atlanta. At 6-foot-6, LeVert’s a better ball-handler out on the wing, and he’s got the size to handle other guards.

Hunter’s advanced stats looked pretty bad playing in Atlanta, and we shouldn’t be too surprised to see him post what would easily be a career-high plus-2.5 BPM in his six games with Cleveland. Caris LeVert (minus-1.4 BPM in seven games) has also seen his numbers dip since leaving the Cavaliers, but it’s not that much worse now than what Hunter was doing (minus-0.6 BPM).

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Atlanta also got Georges Niang (minus-1.1 BPM in seven games) in that Hunter deal. Niang isn’t much of a defender, but he can shoot the three (40.6% this year), which helps smooth the loss of Krejci (38.4%) somewhat. The cupboard isn’t bare is what I’m saying.

The Pick

The Hawks opened as 11-point home dogs on the NBA odds board, then Heritage made them +12 as we go to press. They could climb even higher by tip-off. Neither team plays Saturday, so we probably don’t have to worry about late scratches moving the odds; consider giving this bottle a bit more time to mature before opening, and may the sphere be with you.

NBA Pick: Hawks +12 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Hawks +12 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.