The second of three NFL preseason weeks is on tap for this weekend and we have isolated our top NFL picks to keep our wallets fat and happy. Let’s discuss our best bets below and keep cashing those tickets!
What Kind of Bettor Are You?
Time for true confessions. I’m a natural chalk-eater. I am Joe Q. Public incarnate and my DNA has me hard-wired to lay the lumber, whether it be on the road or at home, and bet the over. Like many, my initial reaction goes something along the lines that if one team is much better than the other then it has to be a blowout! Makes total sense, right?
Well, no, it is actually quite wrong and it is why the average, recreational sports bettor gets slaughtered because of that mindset. Underdogs devour the masses but that doesn’t mean the hounds cover all of the time. And over the years I have managed to curb my penchant for favorites by assigning a line to each game before I scan the actual NFL odds. It’s a good way to keep myself in check and now I am at the point where I am betting as many, if not more, underdogs than favorites.
I went 63 percent last season picking three NFL games per week and much of that success has to do with homework, plenty of homework, instead of kneejerk reactions to the lines before I have even scoured the injury reports. That’s a rookie mistake I haven’t made in decades and, unlike the old days, I always give a slight lean on the underdogs because my natural inclination is always bubbling right beneath the surface to bet the chalk. It’s like a counterbalance but it works, at least for me.
Now that I have laid bare my soul for you, let’s talk about two preseason games that look better to me than the rest. Remember, it’s preseason and this is like Sunday fishing with your buddies, not a big-money tournament casting against strangers. Your wagers should be a half or a quarter of your normal unit size because it’s preseason and anything can happen.
Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday, August 21, 2021 – 7:00 PM ET at Heinz Field
The reason I liked Pittsburgh over Dallas in the Hall of Fame Game is the same reason I like them over the Lions this week. They have experienced backup quarterbacks. And don’t snicker when you consider the likes of Dwayne Haskins and Mason Rudolph. When experienced backups play against scrubs, they look much better than they do against the starters.
Consider last week in the Steelers’ 26-16 win over the Eagles, Haskins tossed for 161 yards and a touchdown on 16-of-22 passing while Mason Rudolph hit on 8-of-9 passing attempts for 77 yards. Pittsburgh’s fourth-round pick from 2017, Joshua Dobbs, had 30 passing yards and an interception. After the way the Steelers plummeted at the end of last season, I believe the coaching staff feels it is imperative to roll through the preseason and the Lions are an easy mark for this team to cover the number.
So, yes, I will play the home chalk, because sometimes the public wins and you can’t always bet the underdog just because you’re afraid of looking like a square. Experience matters and the Steelers get the cover because of it!
P.S. This line went from -5 to -6 in the time it took me to write this piece on Monday morning. Squares unite!
NFL Pick: Steelers -6 (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, August 22, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Heinz Field
The Giants fell 12-7 to the Jets last week while the Browns beat up the lowly Jags, 23-13, and welcomed Jacksonville’s golden boy, Trevor Lawrence, to the NFL by sacking him twice and causing him to fumble. This time around will be different because the Giants will own a decent defense this season with enough depth to cause the Browns’ backups more than a bit of consternation.
As for the offense, the Giants will be able to stay competitive throughout, and let’s not forget we are getting the benefit of a 5.5 point start over at Bovada. I think this will be a rather dull affair but that works just fine for me because that means there will be plenty of action between the 20’s and New York will hang tough.
NFL Pick: Giants + 5.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
