With 15 games on the slate, there are many props to choose from on tonight’s MLB betting board. After looking through all 15 games, I’ve decided on three MLB props that have really good value. I’ll discuss each bet below in greater detail so you can consider tailing if interested.
That said, with this article, there will be no strikeout props or home run props. You won’t even see any first-inning props. This will be strictly a total bases prop article, which is something I’ve been great at for nearly half a decade. If you’re looking for other articles on home runs or strikeouts, there are many articles available from other writers that you should check out! Those articles will also have MLB top props available.
MLB Best Props Today
Tonight, I’m targeting three hitters who have been super consistent at the plate lately. When looking at total bases props, the head-to-head matchup is important. I’m not specifically worried about how a player has done throughout the years against a pitcher. I’m more concerned about the analytical matchup between the two players over the last 30 days.
If a left-handed pitcher has struggled against righties and a right-handed hitter has destroyed lefties during the same time period, I’m more comfortable backing that right-handed hitter to have a big night. That’s the process I use to find my top MLB picks at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
- Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Where to Place Today’s MLB Best Bets
I’ve added three best bets for tonight’s MLB slate. I currently believe we’re getting value on each bet. Therefore, it’s likely that odds will change and move by the time the game begins. If you’re considering tailing, get in on the action at top sportsbooks as soon as possible to get the best odds and return on your money!
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Bovada
Over the last month, Gunnar Henderson has been red-hot against right-handed pitchers. He’s slugged a .267 ISO and wOBA of .422 with only 12.9% of strikeouts against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox, who has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .346 to his last 58 lefties. Giolito has only struck out 13.8% of lefties during that stretch, and he’s allowed as many line drives as ground balls induced over the last month against lefties.
Henderson has hit 61.5% of hard contact against righties over the last 30 days, and he’s also added a 9.6% barrel percentage with a .312 BABIP. That checks out against Giolito.
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) at Bovada
A few years ago, nobody would’ve ever expected Paul Goldschmidt to bat in the leadoff spot. But that’s where he is for the Yankees against lefties.
Goldschmidt has tallied a .412 ISO and wOBA of .540 against his last 18 lefties. The right-hander has struck out only 11.1% of the time and has hit 53.3% of hard contact with a 26.7% barrel percentage.
He’ll face MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, who has allowed a .263 ISO and wOBA of .430 to his last 87 righties. The left-handed thrower has allowed 30.5% of line drives during this stretch against righties. He’s also struck out only 21.8% of righties over the last month.
Goldschmidt is red-hot against lefties, and Gore has struggled against righties. Let’s take advantage.
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) at Bovada
The Texas Rangers are set to pitch Patrick Corbin tonight. He’s another lefty who has struggled against righties. Corbin has allowed a .328 ISO and wOBA of .465 to his last 72 righties this season. He’s also struck out 16.7% of his last 72 righties and has allowed 33.3% of fly balls to those 72 righties.
In addition, he’s allowed an 11.8% barrel percentage to righties in the last 30 days. He’s also given up 62.7% of hard contact to righties during that same time period.
That’s no good. Plus, he’s set to face Taylor Ward, a righty hitter for the Angels, who has smoked left-handed pitching. Ward has hit a .364 ISO and wOBA of .452 against his last 14 lefties. He’s also struck out just 7.1% of the time, while adding 60% of hard contact.
If Ward gets a hold of one, it’s likely going to be with hard contact.
Tips for MLB Props
- Don’t worry too much about previous head-to-head stats.
- Find red-hot hitters that are facing struggling pitchers over the last 30 days.
- If a pitcher isn’t getting high strikeouts, there’s a better chance the hitter will put the ball in play!
- When selecting total base props, make sure the player isn’t hitting a high rate of ground balls.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
