MLB Playoffs Best Bets for October 8: Cubs Stay Alive in Low-Scoring Affair
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LT Profits
- October 8, 2025
After finishing the regular season a profitable 97-79-4 over our last 180 picks with quite a few underdog winners and no favorites higher than the -130s, we have had a disappointing playoff season thus far. We look to bounce back Wednesday with three more best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
Today’s MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our three selections for Wednesday consist of the side & total in Game 3 of the Brewers vs. Cubs series with a first pitch of 5:08 ET, as well as a run line play in the Phillies vs. Dodgers matchup. As always, we also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, October 08, 2025 – 05:08 PM ET at Wrigley Field
After taking the first two games in Milwaukee for a commanding 2=0 series lead, the Brewers are looking to close out this series in Chicago on Wednesday. However, we are looking for the Cubs to stay alive with Jameson Taillon taking on Quinn Priester. Additionally, the expected weather conditions in Wrigley Field also have us backing the Under in this contest.
Taillon Strong Finish, Nice Wild Card Start
Jameson Taillon quietly had his second straight good season for the Cubs at the advancing age of 33, and he is also in great current form. After going 12-8 with a 3.27 ETA in 2024, he followed that up by going 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA this season. Even more importantly, he could very well be in the best form of a Major League career that began in 2016 right now at the perfect time!
That is because Jameson ended the regular season with seven consecutive starts of allowing two runs or less, with batters not getting good swings against him as indicated by his stellar soft/hard contact ratio of 14.7%/21.6% in those starts. This stretch included a start against these Brewers here in Wrigley where he allowed one run and five hits in six innings.
Then, his great form extended into the deciding Game 3 of the Wild Card Round where Taillon tossed four scoreless innings against the Padres, allowing just two hits with four strikeouts and not a single walk. He also has the support of a Cubs’ bullpen that has sparkled with a 2.67 ERA during these playoffs, and that is after finishing fifth in the majors in xFIP during the regular season.
Was Priester Career Year for Real?
Now, we totally get that Quinn Priester had a surprisingly great season in his third year in the league, going a remarkable 13-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 3.81 xFIP in 29 appearances including 24 starts. But unlike Taillon, who has had some previous success, Priester’s season seemingly came out of nowhere and the fact that he was used in relief at times is an indication that the Brewers were not particularly high on him.
Yes, Quinn proved his doubters wrong for the most part, but he still had an ordinary K/BB ratio of 7.55/2.86 per nine innings and his overall Stuff+ of 98, while decent, does not quite support his frontline numbers. And then there is the question of whether the 25-year-old can handle the pressure of his first career postseason start while facing a Cubs offense that was eighth in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at 110 during the regular season.
Betting the Side
While it is possible that Priester can go on to have a great Major League career, we have much more faith in Taillon in this spot with the Cubs desperate to extend their season. Add a very reasonable price and we are betting on Chicago to do just that here at home.
The Pick: Cubs ML (-117) at Heritage Sports
Betting the Total
We do however expect this to be a relatively low-scoring affair with a twilight start and the Wrigley Field winds expected to be blowing straight in at around 13 MPH at gametime. Thus, we are also giving our support to the Under as a second wager in this game.
The Pick: Under 7 (-129) at Bookmaker
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, October 08, 2025 – 09:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
The defending World Champion Dodgers have looked great in defense of their championship so far. After sweeping the Reds in the first round, they have taken the first two games of this series on the road in Philadelphia. We now look for them to close out the Phillies in emphatic fashion returning home, so we are backing Los Angeles on the run line with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Aaron Nola.
Yamamoto One of Best in Baseball This Year
The Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a huge contract last year, but the Japanese import had an injury plagued first season in the Major Leagues. He was much healthier this season and he lived up to his hype, deserving better than his 12-8 record considering he ranked fourth in the majors in ERA at 2.49, sixth in xFIP at 3.05 and seventh in Pitching WAR at 5.0.
We love pitchers that can combine strikeouts and groundballs, and Yoshinobu was excellent at both with a 10.42/9 K-Rate and a 52.8% groundball rate, ranking fifth and eighth in the majors in those two categories respectively. He has a vast repertoire of six different pitches led by a 95.4 MPH fastball and three secondary pitches rated 104 or higher on Stuff+.
That mix now has Yamamoto in supreme form, as after allowing one earned run or less in each of his last five regular season starts including a near no-hitter in Baltimore, he allowed no earned runs in 6.2 innings against the Reds in the Wild Card Round.
Nola with Worst Season, Faces Great Offense
Aaron Nola was mostly great at the start of his career, but the now 32-year-old showed some slippage in recent seasons, and he had the worst season of his career this year. He finished 5-10 for a first-place team that won 96 games, with a bloated 6.01 ERA. Yes, he had an extended three-month stint on the injured list with both a fractured rib and a sprained ankle, but he really has not been much better since returning on August 17th.
His ERA is 5.84 in eight starts since his return, and while some are excited about his last start of the regular season where he allowed one run and two hits in eight innings, that was against a decimated Twins team that threw in the towel at the trade deadline. That performance came after allowing 10 earned runs in 11.1 innings in his previous two starts.
We do not expect Aaron to match that final start here against a Dodgers team that finished fourth in the league in wRC+ against righties, a figure that rose to an amazing 130 here at home!
We see this as a pitching mismatch obviously in favor of Yamamoto, and with the Dodgers having the best home wRC+ in the majors vs. right-handers, our play here is on LA on the run line with nice + odds attached to it.
The Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+120) at BetOnline
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s picks for today below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
