MLB Playoffs Best Bets for Tuesday: Blue Jays to Complete Surprising Sweep in ALDS
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LT Profits
- October 7, 2025
We have had a disappointing MLB Playoffs to this point after finishing the regular season a solid 97-79-4 over our last 180 picks with quite a few underdog winners and no favorites higher than the -130s. We are looking to bounce back on Tuesday with three more best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
Today’s MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of the side & total in Game 3 of the Blue Jays vs. Yankees series and a total in the Mariners vs. Tigers matchup, which notably starts early at 4:08 ET. As always, we also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, October 07, 2025 – 04:08 PM EDT at Comerica Park
This ALDS series is tied 1-1 with the two teams exchanging well-pitched 3-2 wins in Seattle. We are looking for pitching to prevail again and are backing the Under when Logan Gilbert and the Mariners visit Jack Flaherty and the Tigers in Detroit for Game 3.
Gilbert with Unlucky Record Given Great Command
Logan Gilbert finished with an unlucky record of 6-6 this season, somehow logging 13 no-decisions, marking just over half of his 25 starts. He almost always gave the Mariners a chance to win as he finished with a 3.44 ERA and a 2.95 xFIP that was the sixth best in baseball among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched.
Granted, Logan’s walks were up a bit this year after having sub-2.00 walk-rates each of the last two years to rank among the best in the league, but not terribly so at 2.13/9. And he made up for that slight uptick in walks by posting easily the best strikeout rate of his career at 11.89/9, making for a supreme command ratio. And the spike in strikeouts was real given his career best swinging strike rate of 15.5%.
He now gets to face a Detroit offense that was slightly below average with a wRC+ of 98 against right-handers during the regular season and that has struggled in this series. Gilbert also has the support of a Seattle bullpen that finished eighth in xFIP and ninth in ERA during the season and that has a 1.74 ERA in this series.
Flaherty Better than His ERA, in Good Current Form
Now, Jack Flaherty had a career year last season when he recorded a 3.17 ERA and finished fourth in the majors in xFIP at 3.00, so it would seem he regressed this season with a 4.64 ERA. And while he indeed regressed a bit, he was not as bad as that ERA as his xFIP was nearly a full run lower, at a still solid 3.69. The ERA was inflated by some bad luck, as he finished with a .305 BABIP allowed and a 70.5% strand rate.
That strand rate was particularly unlucky for a pitcher that strikes people out, as Jack maintained his strong K-Rate of 10.51/9. Moreover, he is in good current form, as after allowing three runs or less in each of his last three regular season starts, he followed that up by allowing one run and only three hits with four strikeouts in 4.2 innings in the deciding Game 3 of the Wild Card Round!
Just like Gilbert, Flaherty is facing an offense that has struggled in this series and has the support of a bullpen that has stepped up over the first two games.
We see a similar outcome here as each of the first two games of the series, with each team struggling to score and the winner not decided until the late stages. Bet on the Under again in Game 3.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, October 07, 2025 – 08:08 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Not too many people gave the Blue Jays a chance of sweeping the Yankees before this series started, but they are in position to do just that after bludgeoning the Bombers 10-1 and 13-7 in the first two games respectively. Now, we are expecting the Jays to complete the sweep on the road at a nice underdog price with Shane Bieber taking on Carlos Rondon, and we are also betting on the Over at this relatively low number.
Bieber Looking Strong After Long Absence
Bieber won the Cy Young Award back in 2020, but he suffered a serious elbow injury during his second start last season that required Tommy John surgery. Normally, that would be followed by at least one season off, but with the surgery taking place early in the season during April 2024, he was able to return to the Major Leagues with his new Blue Jays team on August 22nd of this year.
He has been solid in his return finishing the regular season at 4-2 with 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP, but that does not tell the whole story. Remember, that was over just seven starts, so his one bad start where he allowed five runs in six innings was enough to skew his still very decent numbers. He pitched very well in his other six starts, allowing two runs or less in five of them and three runs in the other.
Most importantly, his average fastball velocity of 92.6 MPH was at its best point since 2021, which is an excellent sign. Granted, that velocity will not blow anyone away, but Shane’s strength has always been the variety of his arsenal, as was the case this year with five pitches that he threw at least 12.6% of the time. That led to a good strikeout rate of 8.26/9 and a very good groundball rate of 48.2%, a combination we always like to see.
Rodon Now Over 200 Innings Pitched This Year
Now, we are actually fans of Rodon, who had his best season since the Yankees signed him to a controversially huge contract in 2023, finishing 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 3.89 xFIP. However, his 195.1 innings during the regular season was easily a career high, and he then got over 200 innings combined for the year with six innings in his start during the Wild Card Round.
So, while Bieber is very fresh and strong after his recent return, Carlos may be just the opposite. And it is not as if he is without flaws, as the walk issues that plagued Rodon early in his career returned this season, with that rate at 3.36/9, making for a dangerous combination with a 31.7% hard contact rate. Moreover, he was not particularly great in his Wild Card start allowing three earned runs in his six innings, with three walks hurting his cause.
Plus, the Yankees bullpen was a concern entering these playoffs after posting a 5.13 ERA during the month of September. And as you might expect with the Blue Jays scoring 23 runs in the first two games, that unit has been horrific with a 12.19 ERA in this series.
Betting the Side
While we understand the desperation of the Yankees trying to save their season, they still appear to be overpriced here with a fresh Bieber probably being the better starting pitcher facing a possibly overworked Rodon. We are supporting the Blue Jays at a nice price to complete the sweep.
The Pick: Blue Jays ML (+137) at Bookmaker
Betting the Total
While both starters can pitch well, we are far more confident in Bieber doing so, and we have seen how bad the Yankees bullpen has been this series. Also, the Toronto pen has not been great either, although the damage incurred in Game 2 was from lower leverage relievers that entered with a 13-2 lead. We are adding the Over at this number to our bets for this game.
The Pick: Over 7.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s picks for today below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
