MLB Bet or Fade July 7: Gallant Gallen Graces the Mound Tonight
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Rainman M.
- July 7, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s MLB action, and four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- Rockies vs. Red Sox
- Pirates vs. Royals
- Guardians vs. Astros
- Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Let’s break down these matchups with sharp insight before you place your bets.
Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Respecting Austin Gomber
Colorado starts Austin Gomber tonight.
Given Gomber’s poor reputation and his very unattractive ERA, it is easy to think that the Red Sox will score a lot of runs tonight.
However, public perception of Gomber and his ERA are already accounted for by the posted team total for Boston, which is very high at 5.5.
Gomber’s ERA is as high as it is because of one bad start that he had, which took place in Colorado’s super hitter-friendly ballpark.
In his one road start, he held the Braves to zero runs in 5.2 innings.
His current form, despite his most recent starts taking place in high-altitude Denver, has been excellent. He held the Dodgers to one run in five innings before, in his last outing, limiting the Astros to two runs in five innings.
These two starts are extremely impressive because the Dodgers and Astros both rank top-two against his pitches from lefties.
Gomber’s excellent form justifies confidence in him as it creates value in the Red Sox team total under.
Colorado’s Underrated Bullpen
The Rockies’ bullpen stats are always going to look bad because they play half of their games in Colorado.
But Colorado does have good relievers and a much improved bullpen in general, as evident in its last road game, on June 29 in Milwaukee, where Rockies relievers combined for 5.1 shutout innings.
Colorado’s bullpen has plenty of quality arms available tonight, including Jake Bird, who is particularly steller against teams outside of his division, and Victor Vodnik, who has not allowed an earned run since June 13.
Rockies relievers will help limit Boston’s run total tonight.
MLB Pick: Red Sox Team Total Under 5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Fading Pittsburgh’s Starter
Andrew Heaney starts for the Pirates tonight.
Heaney looked great in his last outing, so it is tempting to simply expect him to thrive again tonight.
But we have to consider the circumstances of that outing and to understand the decisive respects in which tonight’s game is different.
In his last outing, Heaney got to pitch at home and during the day.
Relevantly to tonight’s game, he is worth fading on the road and at night.
Away from home this year, his ERA is 5.79. At night, he is 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA.
Kansas City’s Solid Starter
Noah Cameron starts for the Royals tonight.
Cameron has had two bad outings: one against the Yankees and another against the Dodgers.
He has been solid against every other team: in his eight starts outside of those two, he has allowed a combined total of five earned runs.
Therefore, he is eminently reliable against non-elite lineups.
Cameron vs. Pirates Batters
Cameron’s outlook tonight is strong because the Pirates’ lineup is very much non-elite — it is terrible. Pittsburgh ranks second-to-last in runs per game and is the only team to average fewer than three runs per road game.
Even regardless of game location, the Pirates match up terribly against Cameron. They rank 27th with a .344 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Kansas City’s Bullpen Advantage
The Royals are worth a full-game play because they have the better bullpen.
Their relievers are also fresh because their starter lasted seven innings yesterday.
Parlay Leg 1: Royals ML (-145) at BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Expecting Different Results
It is tempting to look at Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee’s last outing against Houston and to feel inclined to invest in the underdog Guardians.
But there is a reason why the Astros are strongly favored tonight. Results often change in rematches.
We should expect a different outcome tonight because when Bibee thrived against Houston he did it at home. He is significantly better at home, where his ERA is 2.57, than on the road, where it is 5.40.
Four different Astros batters slug at least .600 with Bibee on the mound, so expect Houston’s lineup to flourish tonight at home, where its BA is .17 higher than it is on the road.
Bounce-Back Game for Colton Gordon
Houston starts Colton Gordon tonight.
His last start was terrible, but it took place in high-altitude Denver.
There is no reason to worry about whether he can get back on track. Before his last start, he had allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his previous four starts.
He matches up superbly well against the Guardians, who rank 29th with a .339 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Full-Game Play
The Astros are worth a full-game investment because their second-ranked bullpen is reliable.
Cleveland anyhow can’t win a game right now: the Guardians have lost their last ten games.
Their lineup, in particular, is struggling, as it has mustered all of three runs in their last four games.
Conversely, the Astros have won six of their last seven games, with their lineup showing strong form. They most recently outscored the Dodgers 29-6 in their three-game series.
Parlay Leg 2: Astros ML (-157) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Royals ML (-145)
- Astros ML (-157)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+177) at BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Zac Gallen Is Back
Arizona starts Zac Gallen tonight. The Diamondbacks are underdogs because Gallen has had a terrible season.
Oddsmakers don’t account for the current form. Most recently, Gallen threw seven shutout innings. He struck out ten batters and walked nobody.
Before his last start, Gallen had been struggling with pitch quality and with his command of the strike zone.
He relies heavily on his fastball, which looked fantastic in his last start. His fastball is the pitch that he throws most often and, when it’s working, it sets up his other pitches. It also enables him to avoid being too much of a scared plate-nibbler who serves up meatballs when he falls behind in the count.
It’s not like he has some kind of physical problem: he still throws his fastball as hard and with as much movement as he did before this year. He simply needed to find a rhythm and create confidence for himself, which it was clear he had been lacking because he’s been in his own head.
Yu Darvish Returns
In addition to being a great underdog because Gallen has found his form, Arizona is also a great underdog because Yu Darvish will pitch for the Padres tonight.
Darvish will make his first start of the season after being activated from the 60-day injured list and dealing with an elbow injury.
He is worth fading tonight because he will be rusty and unsharp, whereas he’ll face a seasoned lineup that has been playing regular season baseball since March 27. It will be impossible for Darvish to find his footing quickly enough to be competitive.
Even if Darvish’s form were great, Arizona’s lineup still would own an excellent outlook tonight. The Diamondbacks rank number one with a .477 slugging rate against Darvish’s favorite pitches from righties.
Full-Game Play
With Kyle Backhus and Shelby Miller both fresh tonight, the Diamondbacks are worth a full-game investment.
Both relievers boast a sub-two ERA. If Arizona’s lead isn’t huge, they will help secure a Diamondbacks victory.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
