MLB Bet or Fade for July 31: Tonight Is George Kirby’s Night
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Rainman M.
- July 31, 2025
We’ve got three MLB matchups on deck for Thursday, and we’re diving into the latest odds from the top sportsbooks to find where the real betting value’s hiding.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily baseball betting advice with Donnie RightSide!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, July 31, 2025 – 01:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Trust Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman starts for the Yankees today.
His ERA looks terrible, but remember that ERA is a season-long statistic, that the baseball season is very long, and that the reasons why a pitcher’s ERA is bad easily lose their relevance.
Stroman’s ERA is this high primarily because he struggled mightily way back in March and April.
Since then, he allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.
The point is not to say that this trend is all that impressive, but to say that, his ERA notwithstanding, there exist great opportunities to back Stroman.
Stroman’s Matchup Advantage
Stroman’s outlook today is great because he matches up superbly against Tampa Bay’s lineup.
To explain, Stroman throughout his career has relied heavily on inducing ground balls.
In keeping the ball on the ground, he avoids giving up home runs and contributes to the rate at which he yields soft contact.
The sinker is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch, and, indeed, this is Stroman’s favorite pitch to throw. As heat maps show, he likes to locate it low in the strike zone.
Tampa Bay’s lineup suffers a negative outlook against the sort of pitcher that Stroman is. The Rays slug .356 against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
Tampa Bay’s Hitting Form
Of course, the above matchup analysis might not even be of primary importance today, because the Rays are struggling every game.
They’ve scored two runs or fewer in three of their last six starts.
While they’ve scored more than two runs in each of their last three starts, they are continuing to start slowly.
Their start two games ago does not represent an exception, because their two first-inning runs were unearned, a consequence of a Yankees throwing error.
Otherwise, in their last two games, they’ve combined for a total of two runs through five innings.
They could recently only start strong against struggling Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler.
Power Pepiot
Ryan Pepiot starts for the Rays today.
As it will be for Stroman, Pepiot’s favorite pitch will be key for him tonight.
Pepiot leans heavily on his fastball, which boasts strong velocity with its average of 95 mph.
This power will be key for Pepiot because it is a pitching feature against which the Yankees struggle.
Their slugging rate declines greatly against power pitchers. More specifically, they have one hit in eleven at-bats this season against the 95 mph fastball from righties.
Pepiot on the Road
While it’s true that Pepiot has had some rough patches this year, his good starts tend to come in bunches, and his last start was solid.
Most recently, he allowed zero earned runs in six innings in Cincinnati. He allowed two runs in his last start in Yankee Stadium, where he will be especially comfortable with the wind slated to blow infield 11 mph, which will give him more help than he needs to prevent fly balls from turning into home runs.
Pepiot’s good form will help him keep this game low-scoring through at least five innings.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, July 31, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Pathetic Carlos Carrasco
It’s no wonder why the Yankees didn’t want Carlos Carrasco, whom they dealt to Atlanta.
Carrasco, who made his last professional start on May 4, has been stuck on the Triple-A level.
Many years ago, he used to excel at generating strikeouts and at avoiding walks and home runs.
Now, he struggles to do any of these things remotely well.
This year, he has only performed well against very soft tests, a Royals lineup that was one of the worst lineups throughout the first half of the season, and a Blue Jays lineup that was exceedingly cold when it encountered Carrasco.
Carrasco gets a Reds lineup that is not remotely cold. It’s always tough to pitch in a new uniform, anyways, and now he pitches away from the home crowd support. His road ERA this year is 9.26.
Cincinnati’s Starting Pitcher Advantage
Whereas Carrasco can barely call himself a professional pitcher, as someone who teams inexplicably or desperately take a chance on because of how good he was in the distant past, Cincinnati’s starting pitcher today is excellent.
Andrew Abbott excels in the specific areas where Carrasco struggles. This disparity in ability is conspicuous in Abbott’s ongoing tendency to limit opposing run totals. He enters today’s game having allowed a combined total of four runs in his last three starts, even though he faced more productive lineups than the one he’ll confront today.
With Abbott being so much better than Carrasco, Cincinnati will have no problem leading through five innings.
Parlay Leg 1: Reds First-Five ML (-175) at BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, July 31, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Underrated George Kirby
Seattle starts George Kirby today.
Kirby seems to have declined if you look at his year-by-year stats.
But we have to look closely at a pitcher’s ERA rather than to accept it blindly.
His ERA is this high because he yielded an 11.42 ERA back in May.
Kirby’s performances in general since then, and especially his performances at home, show how reliable he is in the right matchup.
Kirby vs. Rangers Batters
His outlook is solid against a Texas team that, when he was pitching, scored zero earned runs in 13 innings in Seattle last year.
Indeed, a large data sample exists that indicates Kirby’s reliability against the Rangers even regardless of location. Overall, in 133 at-bats, they slug .293 against him.
Seattle’s Lineup and Bullpen
Seattle gets to face Kumar Rocker, Texas’ starter today who is plagued by his unreliable command.
Rocker concedes over three walks per game, which, because he needs to avoid walking too many batters, contributes to his tendency to locate pitches in the middle parts of the strike zone.
This tendency, apparent in heat maps, helps buttress the tremendous rate at which opposing batters achieve hard contact against his pitches.
Seattle is worth a full-game play with the better starting pitcher — especially in Seattle — with the matchup-specific fact that Rocker really likes to induce ground balls and the Mariners are at their best against pitchers who rely more on inducing ground balls, and with its top relievers — of whom there are many — fresh.
Parlay Leg 2: Mariners ML (-157) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Reds First-Five ML (-175)
- Mariners ML (-157)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
