MLB Bet or Fade for July 3: Robbie Ray Hates Pitching in Arizona
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Rainman M.
- July 3, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Diamondbacks First-Five ML (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the MLB games today, and four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- Brewers vs. Mets
- Angels vs. Braves
- Guardians vs. Cubs
- Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Get the edge you need with our breakdowns before locking in your wagers.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 03, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Don’t Blindly Expect Continuity
Jose Quintana starts for the Brewers tonight.
Many bettors like to base their wagers on a starting pitcher’s most recent outing. But this is bad reasoning because results often vary from one outing for another.
A particular trend creates a strong outlook for Quintana tonight because it shows that he reliably bounces back from a very poor outing.
After he allowed six runs on May 3, he allowed one earned run in his following start. Likewise, he threw six shutout innings on June 21 after he had conceded five earned runs in his previous start.
Before his most recent start, he had these two outings where he surrendered a high run total. He always pitches excellently in his following start.
Full-Game Play
A strong performance from Quintana will give Milwaukee’s bullpen little to do.
The Brewers will succeed in holding the Mets to a low run total tonight because they benefit from having Nick Mears with his 2.04 ERA, Aaron Ashby with his 1.06 ERA, and Abner Uribe with his 2.25 ERA fresh.
With high-quality relievers, they will prolong the struggles of a Mets team that, before its last game, had mustered one run or two runs in four straight games.
MLB Pick: Mets Team Total Under 4.5 Runs (-125) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, July 03, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
Atlanta’s Scoring Trend
Trends dictate that tonight is a fantastic spot for the Angels.
One trend indicates that the Braves’ offense will suffer a let-down after its last game — Atlanta scored eight runs yesterday.
In eight of their last nine games that followed one in which they amassed seven or more runs, they scored three or fewer runs. The one exception came when they scored four runs against the lowly Rockies.
Jose Soriano’s Pitching Trend
The Angels start Jose Soriano, who enjoys a great bounce-back spot tonight after he allowed eight earned runs in his last start.
After Soriano allowed five runs on April 4, he pitched 7.2 innings of one-run ball on April 10.
Likewise, he allowed three earned runs on April 27 after he conceded five runs on April 22. In that April 27 bounce-back start, he yielded a 2.09 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows how well he truly performed.
Lastly, he allowed one run in seven innings on June 10 after he conceded seven runs on June 4.
Angels After a Loss Trend
Expect the Angels to bounce back after a loss. They are 4-0 in their last four games that followed a loss.
They won all four of those games by four or more runs, while they scored at least eight runs in three of them.
Atlanta’s Struggling Starter
In addition to the situation, the matchup favors Los Angeles unequivocally.
The Angels rank eighth with a .439 slugging rate against Atlanta starter Bryce Elder’s pitches from righties.
Even if their lineup didn’t match up well against Elder, it benefits from facing a struggling starter who has allowed a combined total of 18 earned runs in his last three starts. He even floundered against the Rockies in Atlanta despite the Colorado lineup’s major road struggles this year.
Elder is allowing an immense amount of walks, home runs, and hard contact. Because oddsmakers are slow to adjust, Elder’s terrible form is part of what creates great betting value in the Angels tonight.
MLB Pick: Angels First-Five ML (-105) at Bovada
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, July 03, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Get to Know Cade Horton
The Cubs start Cade Horton tonight, who is their top pitching prospect.
He relies primarily on a fastball that has good velocity and a lot of spin and that, as heat maps show, he ably locates throughout different parts of the strike zone.
His sweeper is the pitch that observers rave about because of its impressive movement. With this pitch, as well as his lefty-killing curveball and changeup, he creates a strong change of pace relative to his fastball that keeps hitters off-balance.
Matchup Advantage
Because of their strong lineup that ranks second in runs per game, the Cubs are a great run-line candidate when you expect them to win. Six of their last seven wins came by two or more runs because of how easily they outscore their opponents.
The matchup tonight favors them quite clearly. Whereas the Guardians rank 23rd with a .380 slugging rate against Horton’s favorite pitches from righties, Chicago ranks seventh with a .443 slugging rate against Cleveland starter Luis Ortiz’s favorite pitches from righties.
With the Cubs’ bullpen ranking second and thus 15 spots higher than Cleveland’s, they are worth a full-game investment.
MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+136) at BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, July 03, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Robbie Ray Hates Arizona
San Francisco starts Robbie Ray tonight.
Don’t let Ray’s excellent season cause you to overlook the fact that none of his performances took place in Arizona.
Whereas he has thrived in other ballparks, he hates pitching in Arizona.
When Ray was a Diamondback, it was well-known that bettors should look to go against him in home games and to back him on the road.
It was always just a matter of time before the Diamondbacks got rid of Ray because they couldn’t want a pitcher who struggles in Arizona, where he’d have to do most of his pitching. Overall, Ray’s ERA is 4.74 in Arizona.
Outlook for Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Pfaadt’s last start creates a misleading perception of him. His 0.89 FIP shows how well he truly performed and creates a more accurate picture of his current form.
His outlook tonight is especially strong against a San Francisco lineup that ranks 23rd with a .386 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
It’s impossible to like the Giants when you don’t like their pitching, because their lineup is perpetually awful. They simply lack talented hitters. Hence, they failed to exceed two runs in four of their last five games.
Pfaadt, who held six of his last seven opponents to two earned runs or fewer at home, likes pitching in Arizona and is therefore just the guy to perpetuate the San Francisco lineup’s disappointment. With him and going against Ray in Arizona, the Diamondbacks are a must-bet home underdog.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks First-Five ML (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
