MLB Bet or Fade July 28: Here Comes Another Padres Let-Down
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Rainman M.
- July 28, 2025
It’s a packed 15-game MLB slate, but I’ve got my eye on four key matchups to bet: Orioles-Blue Jays, Royals-Braves, Cardinals-Marlins, and Padres-Mets.
Let’s break down the betting odds and why these four spots are worth your action—and which angles I’m targeting to cash in.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Monday, July 28, 2025 – 06:35 PM EDT at Camden Yards
Home Sweet Home
Baltimore’s record is as bad as it is primarily because of its struggles on the road.
At home, the Orioles are much better. This is especially true of their lineup, which musters 3.64 runs per game on the road but averages 4.88 runs per home game.
The Orioles in their last three home games impressively scored, 5, 18, and 5 runs, respectively.
Expect a Fast Start
Baltimore likes to start fast: Baltimore’s slugging rate is easily as its highest in innings one-through-three compared to what it is in innings four-through-six or seven-through-nine.
So, when they slam Toronto’s starter today Chris Bassitt, expect that damage to come early.
Bassitt must be expected to struggle tonight because he hates pitching in Camden Yards, where his ERA is 7.71 in four career starts. It’s not just the ballpark: Baltimore batters collectively hit .299 and slug .515 against him.
Fittingly for our wager, his struggles this year have largely been early. He yields a .483 slugging rate in the first inning.
For our bet to hit, we just need Baltimore starter Zach Eflin to hold serve by continuing his strong form and by not being terrible against a Toronto lineup with almost as many strikeouts as hits against him.
After Eflin doesn’t give up two or more runs in the top of the first inning, Baltimore is primed to reach two runs in the bottom half of that inning or sufficiently soon thereafter. Baltimore to Race to 2 Runs (+120 at Bovada) is worth a bet.
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, July 28, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Strider Lost His Stride
Spencer Strider starts for the Braves today.
Bettors persist in viewing Strider favorably because old impressions die hard, but, while he has enjoyed a couple good starts at home, the fact is that he remains distant from the best version of himself.
In his last start, he allowed three runs in five innings against the Giants.
This year as a whole, his strikeout rate is down two batters per nine innings relative to his career average. He is also conceding significantly more walks and home runs.
His career-long success continues to give value in the opponent’s team total over.
Kansas City’s Offensive Improvement
If you think that the Royals’ offense cancels out Strider’s decline, then you haven’t been paying attention to the second half of the season.
Kansas City’s offense is surging, having scored at least seven runs in nearly half of its games since the All-Star Break.
Its lineup’s outlook is particularly strong today because, since this improvement began on July 18, Kansas City ranks second with a .621 slugging rate against Strider’s favorite pitches from righties.
With Atlanta’s bullpen ranking in the bottom half, the Royals’ team total over is worth a confident investment.
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, July 18, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Underrated St. Louis Starter
Andre Pallante starts for the Cardinals tonight.
While Pallante has given up a lot of runs in his last two starts, this negative streak cannot continue.
Two starts ago, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 3.09. In his last start, it was 2.29.
He has done a tremendous job of inducing soft contact but has been victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and a low strand rate — the latter means that batters have been unusually clutch against him.
It is unrealistic to expect luck to be against him again tonight.
Pallante vs. Marlins Batters
But he also won’t need luck against a Marlins lineup that finally cooled off — it mustered two runs in its last game.
Most importantly, Pallante as a pitcher who relies quite heavily on inducing ground balls matches up superbly against Miami’s lineup. The Marlins slug .358 against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
Miami is just the team for a Pallante who is truly in good form to bounce back against.
Cardinals Bullpen
With the Cardinals coming off a blowout loss, their bullpen is ideally fresh.
Riley O’Brien, who owns a 1.75 ERA, got the day off yesterday.
Phil Maton and JoJo Romero, who both boast an ERA of below 2.40, haven’t pitched since they helped secure St. Louis’ shutout victory over San Diego on Friday. I’m on the Marlins Team Total Under 3.5 at +109—let’s cash it.
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 28, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The Most San Diego Thing Ever
While the Padres inevitably look attractive after their 9-2 victory yesterday, they have demonstrated throughout the season that they are a big let-down team. This let-down tendency is conspicuous in its lineup’s game-to-game output.
In the second half of the season, their lineup has always disappointed after a good performance.
On July 19, they scored two runs against Washington after beating the Nationals 7-2 a day earlier.
Likewise, they scored two runs on July 21 against Miami after scoring eight on July 20.
We see this in the first half, too, recently on July 2, June 29, and June 16 when they lost with low scoring outputs after they had won their previous game by scoring six or more runs.
For San Diego tonight, a low-scoring output in a subpar performance would be par for the course.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
I also like the Mets today because their starter today Frankie Montas owns a solid history against the Padres.
Collectively, they bat .217 and slug .289 against him.
Dylan Cease starts for the Padres tonight and has a negative outlook against a Mets lineup that, collectively, bats .279 and slugs .574 against him.
With the Mets enjoying a seven-game win streak largely due to the success of their lineup, they enter today’s game in strong form and with an edge that will be most blatant before the bullpens overtake the later innings. Let’s take Mets First-Five ML at +110.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
